Next 3 weeks could decide Big 12 football title game participants

The Big 12 Conference entered last weekend as the home to half of the six remaining unbeaten teams in FBS. The prospect of the league getting two teams into the College Football Playoff, if not more, seemed very real.

Then Texas Tech lost at Cincinnati, BYU fell in double overtime at UCF and suddenly the Big 12 was back to looking like only one CFP spot might be up for grabs. That seems even more likely considering the five teams at the top of the standings are set to face off four times over the next three weeks.

No. 22 Arizona visits No. 13 Texas Tech on Saturday, then on Nov. 7 the Holy War between No. 6 Utah and No. 8 BYU is on tap. The Week 11 schedule features two matchups of Big 12 title contenders, with Arizona hosting Utah and Texas Tech headed to No. 24 Oklahoma State.

Utah, which narrowly avoided getting beat by Houston last time out, is alone in first place with a 4-0 league record. Behind the Utes are Arizona, BYU, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, each with one loss. The top two will meet Dec. 4 in Arlington, Texas for the conference title.

It’s very likely that tiebreakers will come into play to determine who faces off in AT&T Stadium, which is where the upcoming head-to-head clashes come into play. Among the top five, the only meeting so far came back in Week 2 when BYU beat Arizona in Provo.

The Wildcats would need to finish with a better league record than the Cougars to avoid losing a tiebreaker. Winning out would not guarantee the UA a spot in the Big 12 title game, it would still depend on how other teams in the chase finished, while losing once more wouldn’t eliminate it from contention but would make it so a lot of help was needed to sneak in.

No tiebreakers were needed in 2025, as BYU and Texas Tech finished tied for first at 8-1. But in 2024 there were four teams that ended up at 7-2, with ASU and Iowa State meeting up for the title while BYU and Colorado got the short sticks.

Arizona has the luxury of playing three of its last five at home, as does BYU and Texas Tech. Utah, which is at upset-minded Cincinnati this week, and Oklahoma State have only two home games apiece. The Cowboys play their next two on the road, at Iowa State and Kansas State, before hosting Tech.

Ironically, all five schools finish the regular season with home games. Arizona has the Territorial Cup, BYU hosts Cincinnati, Oklahoma State hosts Kansas, Texas Tech hosts TCU (on Thanksgiving!) and Utah hosts West Virginia on the Friday after Turkey Day.

Arizona will end up facing three of the other four top contenders this season, an unlucky draw in a 16-team league with a 9-game schedule, which explains its +700 odds to win the Big 12 being the worst of the five according FanDuel Sportsbook. BYU, Texas Tech and Utah each get two of the four, while Oklahoma State manages to skip all but Tech and might end up benefiting from a schedule that was set three years ago.