Texas, Alabama and LSU all lost as top-10 teams on Saturday. Oklahoma beat the No. 1 team in the country with a blocked punt and a pick 6. And Kentucky won in overtime on a 2-point conversion for the second week in a row.

The market spent Sunday night pricing all of it, and 21 of the 59 spreads on our board had already moved a point and a half or more before Monday. Those are the numbers I want to bet into before the week settles them back down.

Here are three Week 7 college football bets I like right now.

No. 25 Northwestern (-7.5, 48.5) at Michigan State

Pat Fitzgerald coached Northwestern for 17 seasons, got fired in the summer of 2023 in the hazing scandal, sued the school for $130 million and settled last August. On Saturday at 12 p.m. ET, the Wildcats come to East Lansing ranked No. 25 and Fitzgerald's Spartans are 2-4 (0-3 in the Big Ten).

This opened Northwestern -9.5 and has been bet down to -7.5 at a bunch of books, so I'm not the only one who looked at it. The Wildcats have earned the ranking. The only loss is 29-23 at Indiana, they ran for 413 yards on Penn State in the first game at the new Ryan Field, Aidan Chiles has nine touchdowns and no picks and they're 4-1 against the spread.

While the Wildcats have the No. 22 offense in the country, the defense is a different story. Northwestern allows 381 yards a game (98th in the country) and 233 of those via the air (100th). The 16.2 PPG it gives up came against South Dakota State, Colorado, Ball State and a Penn State team that has lost three straight. The one real offense on the schedule, Indiana, ran for 271 yards and scored 29 points. Our deserved-points read has Northwestern's results flattered by about four points a game.

Michigan State isn't the same team that scored 10, 13 and 3 in three straight losses, either. Our in-season re-rating has Michigan State's offense with the 25th-biggest upgrade in the country, two spots behind that of Northwestern. Spartans starting RB Cam Edwards is out for the year, and Jaziun Patterson has handled it. We make this Northwestern 27, Michigan State 21.

Bet on Michigan State to cover the spread at sportsbooks

It should be 44 degrees and dry at kickoff, both teams play slow — Northwestern is 117th in tempo and Michigan State 109th — so there aren't many possessions for a 7.5-point margin to come from. The way this goes wrong is Michigan State's poor red-zone defense (129th).

Fitzgerald is going to have this group ready for one game on the schedule, and this is the one.

Bet: Michigan State +7.5 (-108)

Fresno State (-8.5, 45.5) at San Diego State

San Diego State lost to Oregon State 66-14 last week and the first number on this game was Fresno State by 9.5. It's 8.5 now. The market is still pricing the 66 points allowed. I'm not defending San Diego State's offense: It's 135th in the country at 278 yards a game, QB Jayden Denegal is completing 53.6% of his passes with six touchdowns and five picks, the Aztecs are 1-5 against the spread and they went into October with a mumps outbreak and nearly three-dozen names on the availability report. Sean Lewis said "the football gods have not really favored us with the injury luck," and he's right. The question is whether Fresno State wins by more than eight points.

The Bulldogs are 4-2, but we rank the offense 91st in the country, and QB Jayden Mandal has eight touchdown passes in six games. The two best results — 49-3 over Sacramento State and 26-6 at Washington State — came against an FCS team and a team that ran for 30 yards. On Saturday, Boise State ran for 274 yards at 6.1 YPC, held the ball for 38:58 and won 38-31 in Fresno. Our deserved-points read has the Bulldogs flattered by 4.4 points a game, the biggest gap in this article, and has San Diego State earning exactly what it's shown. In other words, the Aztecs are bad, but not 66-14 bad.

The one thing San Diego State does is run. Javion Kinnard has 355 yards, and the Aztecs ran for 237, 144 and 192 yards in September before the injuries. Fresno State's run defense allows 165 YPG a game (101st). The two teams that ran on it scored 24 and 38. San Diego State doesn't need to throw to get to 17 here.

The risk is that it plays the 17th-fastest tempo in the country behind a defense that allows 478 yards a game, and fast and bad is how you lose by 50. We make this Fresno State 25, San Diego State 18, and Fresno's +8 turnover margin (fifth in the nation), is most of why the number isn't lower. It's 87 degrees at the 7:30 p.m. local kickoff with no wind. Take the 8.5 while it's there.

Bet: San Diego State +8.5 (-110)

No. 15 Kentucky at Oklahoma (-7, 43.5)

Will Stein has coached six games at Kentucky and won two of them on overtime 2-point conversions: 35-34 at South Carolina after a 17-point comeback and 35-34 over No. 10 LSU on Saturday.

Oklahoma beat No. 1 Texas 27-24 with a blocked punt in the end zone, a 42-yard pick 6 and a 47-yard field goal on the last play. The market saw the Sooners' 238 yards of offense and opened this total at 41.5. It's 43.5 now. We make it 47.6.

Oklahoma's offense is 128th in the country and 126th on third down — and it went three-and-out seven times against Texas while QB John Mateer threw for 155 yards and no touchdowns. By Bill Connelly's postgame win expectancy, Texas wins that game 93% of the time. Oklahoma's defense is why the Sooners are alive, as we rank the unit No. 6 in the country. But that only covers one side of the field.

Kentucky's defense allows 28 PPG (108th), 246 passing yards a game (116th) and lets opponents score on 92% of red-zone trips (112th). It gave up 34 points to South Carolina and LSU in back-to-back weeks, but the Wildcats were down three linebackers, two defensive backs and a defensive lineman. Oklahoma has scored 10, 14, 13 and 27 against FBS teams since the opener, and it isn't seeing a softer SEC defense than this one. The Sooners score on 90% of their red-zone trips when they get there, and Kentucky lets teams get there.

The Wildcats' offense is real, too — we have it No. 29 in the country. Kentucky is +7 in turnover margin (sixth nationally) and Oklahoma is -4 (116th), which is how a field-goal game turns into 27-24 with a pick 6 in it. Oklahoma's last four games finished with 27, 20, 54 and 51 points, and the two that cleared this number were the two with a real offense on the other sideline. It's 56 degrees and calm in Norman, so there's no weather holding this down.

We're four points above the number and 43.5 is still posted at BetMGM.

Bet: Over 43.5 (-110)

Source: Yahoo Sports