UCF Preview

With just four games left in the regular season, Lance Leipold and his Jayhawks are running out of time to figure out how to turn all those yards into actual wins.

Last week against TCU, the Jayhawks outgained the Horned Frogs 451-286, led 13-0 at halftime, and somehow managed to lose 22-16. It was another installment in what has become a recurring theme this season: KU plays well enough to win for long stretches, does something incredibly aggravating at an incredibly inconvenient moment, and loses anyway.

Through eight games, the Jayhawks are averaging 6.1 yards per play while allowing 5.4. That’s not a huge discrepancy, but overall, they’ve outgained their opponents by 833 yards and outscored them by 43 points. And they’re 3-5. (How much of that is Middle Tennessee, you may ask? Unfortunately, there’s really no way to tell. At least, I can’t think of a way.)

This week, Kansas returns to Memorial Stadium to face a Directional Florida team that might be even more difficult to figure out. The Knights are 4-4, with victories over TCU and #2 BYU (!?!), but they’re coming off a 41-9 home loss to Baylor. Yes, the same Baylor team Kansas beat two weeks ago.

At 3-5, Kansas needs to win three of its final four games to become bowl eligible. The remaining schedule includes trips to West Virginia and Oklahoma State, along with a home game against now #7 BYU. Saturday represents the most favorable opportunity left on the schedule.

Which means this is a must-win. Otherwise, whoever is left still reading these previews goes out and grabs their basketball jersey on Sunday morning.

PREGAME

Kansas and UCF have a limited series history with just two meetings, both since UCF somehow joined the Big 12. KU is undefeated, (checks notes), yup, undefeated against Central Florida. In 2023, the Jayhawks demolished the Knights 51-22 in Lawrence, rushing for an absurd 399 yards. Last season, Kansas won 27-20 in Orlando.

UCF is in its second season of Scott Frost’s second term. Frost has returned to Orlando looking to restore the Citronauts to the glory days of 2017. However, the Knights have been remarkably inconsistent this season. They beat TCU 21-13, knocked off previously undefeated then-#2 BYU 39-31 in double overtime, and then surrendered 503 yards while getting blown out by Baylor.

The Knights are 4-1 at home but 0-3 on the road.

Kansas enters as approximately a three-point favorite.

FIRST DOWN

Who’s playing quarterback?

That’s an excellent question.

Unfortunately, I don’t have an excellent answer — for either team.

Isaiah Marshall missed last week’s game at TCU with a lower-leg injury, leaving Cole Ballard to make the start. Ballard had a decent day throwing the football, especially considering the competition, but also made some mistakes and oversaw an offense that continually sputtered in plus territory.

Marshall, Ballard, and Chase Jenkins were all listed as questionable on Wednesday’s injury report, but Marshall and Jenkins were upgraded to probable Thursday evening. Ballard remains questionable. So while we still don’t know exactly what Kansas’s quarterback situation will look like Saturday, a return to Marshall seems considerably more likely than it did on Wednesday.

But UCF has quarterback issues of its own. Keyone Jenkins has started most of the season for the Knights, throwing for 1,181 yards and 11 touchdowns against four interceptions. However, he aggravated an ankle injury against Baylor and was replaced by Alonza Barnett III, who had previously missed several games with a hamstring injury of his own. Jenkins has now been ruled out for Saturday, while Barnett is listed as probable. So unless something else changes, it looks like UCF will be starting Barnett.

For Kansas, the bigger issue isn’t necessarily which quarterback starts, but how the offense functions around him. Marshall brings a running dimension that forces defenses to account for the quarterback on designed runs and option plays. Ballard is capable of moving the offense through the air, as he demonstrated against TCU, but the offense changes when the quarterback isn’t the same running threat. That matters against a UCF defense that has been relatively effective against the run.

Once again, the Jayhawks don’t necessarily need their quarterback to throw for 300 yards. They need him to protect the football, make the plays that are available, and keep the offense moving when the running game isn’t producing yards.

After last week, avoiding a defensive touchdown would also be appreciated.

SECOND DOWN

Can KU exploit Central Florida’s pass defense?

UCF’s defense has been considerably more effective against the run than the pass this season. The Knights are allowing just 3.4 yards per rushing attempt, which is actually pretty good. Opponents are averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt, which is considerably less good. Overall, UCF is allowing 5.4 yards per play.

And there’s an important distinction between their early-season numbers and what they’ve done against Big 12 competition. In five conference games, UCF has allowed 6.0 yards per play, compared to 4.5 against its nonconference opponents.

Kansas, meanwhile, is averaging 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Those are respectable numbers, although the 706-yard performance against Middle Tennessee is doing some heavy lifting in the season averages. Nevertheless, the statistical matchup suggests KU might have more success throwing against UCF than trying to run through its defensive front.

That doesn’t mean abandoning the running game. Dylan Edwards has been productive when given opportunities, and the quarterback run game can create additional problems for opposing defenses, assuming Kansas has a quarterback healthy enough to run it. But, UCF has demonstrated that it can limit rushing offenses. The Knights held TCU to 33 rushing yards and BYU (hiya BYU) to 116, although Baylor managed 184 yards on 42 carries last week.

However, the much more interesting number from that Baylor game was 12.8 yards per pass attempt. BU quarterback DJ Lagway completed just 16 passes, but those completions produced 319 yards and four touchdowns. That’s a rather efficient afternoon.

Kansas has enough receiving talent to exploit similar opportunities, particularly if UCF commits additional defenders to stopping the run. The Jayhawks don’t necessarily need to throw the ball 40 times, but they do need to make the Knights pay when favorable matchups present themselves — the Utah game comes to mind. And given the uncertainty at quarterback, that’s probably easier said than done.

Still, the opportunities should be there. The question is whether KU can take advantage of them.

THIRD DOWN

Can KU disrupt the Central Florida offense?

UCF’s offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play, including 4.5 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass attempt. None of those figures are particularly impressive, although the Knights have enough individual talent to create problems.

Running back Duke Watson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, with 597 yards on just 92 attempts. That’s considerably better than UCF’s overall rushing average, although the team average includes sacks. Still, Watson is clearly the most dangerous part of the Knights’ rushing attack. (Fun fact: Gale Sayers averaged 6.5 ypc in his KU career. Do you remember the only other KU running back to average more than 6 ypc?)

Quarterback Keyone Jenkins has completed nearly 68% of his passes, but UCF’s 6.7 yards per attempt suggests an offense that hasn’t consistently generated much downfield production. That’s particularly relevant considering Kansas is allowing just 6.7 yards per opposing pass attempt.

One concern for Kansas is the availability of defensive end David Santiago, who was listed as questionable on Thursday’s injury report. Santiago has been one of KU’s most productive defensive linemen, and his absence would be felt beyond his own statistics. Without Santiago threatening the quarterback from the opposite side, UCF could devote more attention to Leroy Harris III, potentially making it more difficult for KU to generate pressure without blitzing.

Unfortunately, the Jayhawks have been considerably more vulnerable against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. That makes Watson the obvious concern, particularly if UCF can establish him early and avoid obvious passing situations.

Fortunately, the Knights have struggled in those passing situations. UCF has converted just 35.6% of its third downs, and last week’s performance against Baylor was particularly ugly. The Bears held the Knights to 4.2 yards per play, including 2.2 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. UCF also allowed seven sacks and converted just two of 15 third downs.

Seven sacks!

For perspective, Kansas has recorded 12 sacks through eight games. So while expecting KU to replicate Baylor’s performance might be a little ambitious, there should be opportunities to pressure whichever quarterback UCF puts on the field.

The key is making those opportunities available. Kansas needs to prevent Watson from consistently generating positive yardage on early downs, forcing UCF into situations where its offensive line has to hold up in pass protection and its quarterback has to make plays downfield. That’s a much more favorable proposition than allowing Watson to average six yards per carry and letting the Knights dictate the pace of the game. And after watching Baylor dismantle this offense last week, there’s certainly reason to believe Kansas can make things difficult for UCF.

Whether the Jayhawks can turn those opportunities into stops, and those stops into a victory, is another question entirely.

FOURTH DOWN

Can Kansas stop beating itself?

We’ve spent much of this season discussing how Kansas has been statistically better than its record suggests. The Jayhawks have outgained their opponents by 833 yards, outscored them by 43 points, and averaged 6.1 yards per play while allowing 5.4. Pretty good numbers for a 3-5 team, right?

Well, sort of.

Remember that 55-0 demolition of Middle Tennessee? Kansas gained a school-record 706 yards while allowing just 136. That’s a 570-yard advantage in one game, accounting for more than two-thirds of KU’s total yardage differential this season.

Take away MTSU, and Kansas has outgained its other seven opponents by just 263 yards. The Jayhawks are averaging 5.7 yards per play while allowing 5.6, and they’ve actually been outscored 190-178. Suddenly, that 3-5 record doesn’t look quite so mysterious.

Of course, removing a team’s best performance while keeping its worst one isn’t necessarily a fair way to evaluate a season, either. Kansas still outgained Arizona State by 186 yards and TCU by 165, losing both games. Those weren’t statistical illusions. Those were legitimate opportunities to win that KU failed to capitalize on.

And that’s where we return to the mistakes.

Kansas has a minus-five turnover margin, has converted fewer than half its fourth-down attempts (despite a 5-for-8 showing against Baylor), and has repeatedly failed to turn sustained offensive production into points. Against good opponents, those mistakes matter considerably more than they did against Middle Tennessee.

UCF isn’t particularly impressive statistically, either, but the Knights have demonstrated that they can beat good teams (hiya BYU). They also have a plus-three turnover margin, which is a significant advantage over Kansas.

The Jayhawks don’t need to dominate UCF statistically to win Saturday. They need to execute in the situations that determine whether a productive drive ends with points, whether a defensive stop actually gets the offense off the field, and whether a close game turns into another frustrating loss.

Because there’s a difference between being better than your record suggests and actually being good enough to win.

And KU is running out of time to demonstrate the latter.

PREDICTION

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about this game. The quarterback uncertainty is real, UCF has a capable defensive front, and the Knights have already demonstrated that their best performances are good enough to beat quality Big 12 opponents (hiya BYU).

But there are also some fairly compelling reasons to like the Jayhawks. Kansas has been the more productive offensive team, has generally been better defensively on a per-play basis, and is playing at home against an opponent that hasn’t won a road game in more than two years.

Additionally, UCF’s offensive line just surrendered seven sacks to Baylor, and its passing defense has been among the least effective in the country. The matchup is favorable enough that Kansas should be able to move the ball, regardless of who starts at quarterback.

Of course, we’ve been saying variations of that all season.

GIMME THE KOOL-AID, WE’RE GOING FULL HOMER TODAY!

Despite David Santiago’s questionable status, Leroy Harris mauls UCF’s offensive line and sets a KU single-game record for sacks, one of which will be of the strip-sack-for-TD variety.

Meanwhile, a raucous yet family-friendly crowd enjoys watching KU build a huge first half lead. Things get a little dicey in the third quarter when UCF breaks a 70-yard run, then forces a three-and-out and blocks a KU punt, but this one ends up looking a lot like what happened the first time Florida Tech came to Lawrence.

This one will get far enough out of hand that not even the 2026 Jayhawks can find a way to give away another winnable game.

Kansas 48, UCF 23.

EXTRA POINT

UCF enters Saturday having lost 12 consecutive road games, dating back to September 2024.

Amateurs.

From 2009 to 2018, Kansas set an FBS-record 46 consecutive road losses before finally winning at Central Michigan. So, the ‘Nauts have another 34 to go before they can even tie KU’s record.

Honestly, some programs just don’t have the dedication required to achieve true infamy.