College Football Picks, Predictions: Expert Week 7 Bets for Ohio State vs. Indiana, Notre Dame vs. BYU, More

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Week 7 of the college football season has arrived. We have six top-25 matchups this week, and I broke down three of the biggest to get the week started.

We’ll begin in Bloomington, Indiana, for a top-five Big Ten battle between the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes and No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers in a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship.

Then, we’ll head to Knoxville, Tennessee, where the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide meet the No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers on the Third Saturday in October.

To wrap things up, we’ll turn our attention to Provo, Utah, as the No. 8 BYU Cougars host the No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a clash between undefeated teams.

With so much to get to, let’s dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Week 7 games on Saturday, October 17.

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College Football Picks, Predictions

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Week 7’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Revenge is on Ohio State‘s mind after losing the Big Ten Championship to Indiana last season.

Head coach Ryan Day had plenty of success overseeing the offensive play-calling, creating five pass explosives with quarterback Julian Sayin under center.

The Buckeyes generated over 250 yards of passing in the championship game, with 10 targets and 144 yards going to Heisman hopeful Jeremiah Smith.

The more surprising number is the final score. Smith ran wild in the passing game, but Ohio State managed to score just 10 points.

While the offense looks to an explosive passing attack, the defense has been one of the best in FBS against the pass.

Coordinator Matt Patricia’s 3-3-5 defense ranks top-15 in Success Rate against the pass while grading second overall in coverage, per PFF.

Cover 1 and Cover 3 have been the go-to looks for the Ohio State defense, preventing explosives at a top-20 rate in standard downs.

However, there have been leaks when it comes to rush defense, with a rank outside the top 50 in Success Rate.

The Buckeyes have been fantastic against zone read, but teams that use man blocking assignments have controlled the line of scrimmage . Ohio State ranks 60th in Line Yards, producing a low 25% Success Rate when opponents use man-blocking run concepts.

Although Indiana‘s turnover margin sits at +3 on the season, the Hoosiers have had no luck with loose balls. Head coach Curt Cignetti’s defense has seen nine opponent fumbles through six games without a single recovery .

Despite a low turnover margin in favor of Indiana, the defense has been lights-out against the rush. The Hoosiers rank fifth in Rushing Success Rate allowed and seventh in Defensive Line Yards, stopping opponents with inside zone at a 71% clip.

Indiana has also dominated counter, a key run concept that complements inside zone.

Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines has a defense that’s second-best in FBS at shutting opponents down on standard downs. A big part of that is the fact that the Hoosiers have the third-most tackles for loss, led by EDGE Tobi Osunsanmi.

Offensively, the rushing attack has taken a step back from Indiana’s 2025 production, as Lee Beebe Jr. and Turbo Richard spearhead a Success Rate just outside the top 50.

The offensive line has done its part in clearing holes, ranking top-25 in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

Richard has been the spark plug for a rush attack that’s 35th in EPA, averaging 4.9 yards after first contact. Despite 27 fewer rushing attempts, Richard has forced 31 missed tackles compared to Beebe’s 22.

The transition from Fernando Mendoza to Josh Hoover has seen little drop-off for the Indiana passing attack, as the TCU transfer has no interceptions and just a single turnover-worthy play on the season .

Wide receivers Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh have been electric, each racking up 41 targets and at least 3.7 yards per route run.

The first handicap is how Indiana’s defense will handle the threat of Smith on every snap Ohio State plays.

Smith provided eight catches and explosives in the Big Ten Championship, but a collective effort in the second level kept the receiver from the end zone. The only touchdown from the Buckeyes was scored by Carnell Tate, who has since moved on to the NFL.

The biggest issue in OSU’s passing game is the lack of a second option for Sayin. Devin McCuin ranks second in targets, but his 21 targets are dwarfed by Smith’s 66.

Expect Indiana to limit every player on the field not named Smith while minimizing assignment errors and missed tackles.

The game plan worked in last year’s Big Ten Championship, but with Smith involved in a heavier amount of motion, the Hoosiers have their work cut out for them in Week 7.

On the ground, Ohio State’s rushing attack may have issues getting jump-started against Indiana.

The Buckeyes utilize both inside and outside zone at a high Success Rate with Bo Jackson. The sophomore averages 3.9 yards after first contact, but Indiana has dominated inside zone this season.

Any success in the running game will come outside the tackle box with no expectation of explosives, as Indiana has allowed just two opponent rushing attempts to exceed 20 yards .

The path to success is much clearer for Indiana’s run game, as its secondary run concept of man-blocking assignments is a large weakness for Ohio State.

That leads to Richard, who has a near even split of zone-read and man-blocking rushing attempts. The Buckeyes rank 62nd in Rush EPA allowed, so Richard should be the driving force behind moving the chains to create methodical drives.

A grind of a game is expected, and Indiana should have the better rushing offense in the final box score.

The Hoosiers’ key is limiting explosives on defense and limiting breakaway scores for Smith. The biggest gap in the game is Ohio State’s limited receiving unit, as Sayin has been hesitant to target any option other than Smith.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Ohio State to be favored by -1.5, giving Indiana the edge in the current market.

Pick: Indiana +3.5 · Under 51

Alabama will look to recover from a brutal loss to Georgia in Week 6 as a result of a combination of explosive passes allowed and personal fouls.

Dijon Lee‘s personal foul at the end of the game cost the Crimson Tide a game against their most important rival on the regular-season schedule.

Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton completed a pass to 10 different targets, ending 18-of-22 with six explosives and an average of 10.5 yards per play through the air.

Alabama has fallen outside the top 50 in Passing Success Rate allowed, giving up 12 receptions over 30 yards this season.

The offense will also look to recover from a passing perspective after quarterback Keelon Russell generated two turnover-worthy plays against the Bulldogs.

Head coach Kalen DeBoer had plenty of success on offense against Georgia, averaging 5.8 yards per play, while six of the Tide’s nine possessions saw at least two first downs.

The Crimson Tide rushing attack ranks top-10 nationally in Success Rate and Line Yards, utilizing inside zone, man blocking and power concepts.

Russell hasn’t been alone in creating explosives, as running back Daniel Hill averages 3.8 yards after first contact, while Trae’shawn Brown has eight explosives on 51 attempts.

After a dip in production due to injury in 2025, wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams has returned to elite-level play, producing 2.4 yards per route run on 34 targets.

Tennessee snapped a 25-year win drought in Fayetteville with a Week 6 win over Arkansas last week.

Quarterback George MacIntyre took over starting duties from true freshman Faizon Brandon, generating mixed numbers for a Tennessee offense that scored 24 points.

MacIntyre posted five explosive passes, a touchdown and two turnover-worthy plays.

The leader of the offense continues to be the running game with DeSean Bishop, averaging 4.4 yards after first contact with eight rushing touchdowns on the season.

New defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has elevated Tennessee’s stop unit. No opponent in the first half of the season scored more than 24 points against the Vols.

Through three SEC games against Texas, Auburn and Arkansas, the Volunteers are averaging 17 points allowed.

Knowles utilized Havoc-minded nickel defenses in previous stops at Oklahoma State and Ohio State, and now Tennessee is producing as well, ranking top-10 in Havoc, Passing Success Rate allowed and coverage grading.

The Vols also lead the nation in Passing EPA allowed.

The first handicap focuses on how Alabama’s defense can stop a run game that features Bishop.

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s offense is a heavy inside zone team with the offensive linemen in wide splits. The Vols have elected to use an additional tight end this season, running inside zone 59 times in 12 personnel against 49 attempts in 11.

Alabama boasts a 47% Success Rate against inside zone when opponents use 12 personnel, a 5% drop from the Success Rate against 11 personnel.

The Crimson Tide have allowed ground explosives this season, ranking 65th in Rush EPA allowed. Tennessee must stay in standard downs with Bishop handling the rock, as the Vols own a Success Rate of just 115th in passing downs.

The next handicap centers on Knowles’ defense looking to limit explosives from Russell and a stable full of explosive weapons for the Tide.

Tennessee’s shortcomings on defense come against the run, with mediocre ranks in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards. Alabama runs a heavy amount of inside zone, a run concept the Volunteers produce a low 42% Success Rate against.

Brown has a much higher usage on inside zone carries than Hill, so the elusive Tide running back should bust explosives and become an option in scoring position.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings project Alabama as just a 4.5-point favorite, giving an edge to Tennessee with the current number sitting north of a touchdown.

The Crimson Tide should dominate on the ground, but the Volunteers’ top-10 Havoc unit and pass defense could create turnovers and gratuitous field position.

Bishop will have success running against the Tide front with inside zone and two tight ends, potentially creating explosives against an Alabama defense that has been susceptible to allowing them this season.

Pick: Tennessee +8.5 · Trae’shawn Brown Anytime TD (-120)

Notre Dame entered the 2026 season looking to replace a backfield that sent two rushers to the first round of the NFL Draft. After struggling to run the ball in September, the Irish may have found the answer in true freshman Jonaz Walton.

Walton racked up 18 carries through the first four weeks of the season but has seen 36 carries over the past two games against North Carolina and Stanford.

Notre Dame has quickly become a top-15 team in Rushing Success Rate, using heavy outside zone with a mix of inside zone and counter.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Chris Ash has dominated opposing offenses with the Notre Dame defense. The 3-3-5 personnel sends an aggressive amount of blitz at 42%, putting the Irish as the third-best Havoc unit in FBS .

More impressive is the lack of penalties, as Notre Dame has the third-lowest penalty rate despite having one of the more active defenses when it comes to creating pressure and generating tackles for loss.

Edge Boubacar Traore has created 21 pressures opposite Bryce Young, who has 15 on the season. The pair combine to create the top pass-rush unit by PFF’s grading.

No LJ Martin? No problem. Even without its star running back, BYU stomped Iowa State, 24-10, in Week 6. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier gained over 100 yards on the ground on nine carries against the Cyclones while creating two explosive plays.

Without Martin, Bachmeier saw a large increase in designed carries using outside zone, with a 74% Success Rate on the season.

Martin isn’t expected back until November with a lower-body injury, putting the load of the offense on Bachmeier once again in Week 7.

Defensively, coordinator Kelly Poppinga continues the longstanding BYU standard of successful defenses against the run and pass with a heavy dose of Havoc.

While the Cougars sit in the top 25 in most categories, they rank 15th in Defensive Stuff Rate heading into a trench war with Notre Dame.

The Cougars own the 86th-ranked strength of schedule but have produced at least a 61% Success Rate against both inside and outside zone.

The only failure of the defense comes in tackle grading, where it ranks 124th, per PFF . That number decreased in Week 5 against TCU, with single-digit missed tackles, but increased to 14 against Iowa State.

Notre Dame’s success when it comes to shutting down Bear Bachmeier and the BYU offense is the biggest handicap of the game.

The Cougars’ quarterback had a mix of two zone-read attempts, four designed gap-blocking calls and a few scrambles against Iowa State without Martin.

There’s an expectation that BYU will run outside zone straight at Traore, who dominates on a passing downs but grades out as one of the worst run defenders on the Irish.

Of any Notre Dame run defender to play 130 snaps, no player grades lower than Traore in opponent rush grading.

The issue will be Bachmeier at the second level, as Notre Dame is the 11th-best tackling team in the nation. The Irish have allowed only six opponent rushes to exceed 20 yards this season .

On the other side, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr has been near flawless when passing this season, generating 16 touchdowns to a single interception and four turnover-worthy plays.

BYU’s defense plays a lot of Cover 1, a zone look against which Carr averages a 56% Success Rate this season . The Cougars’ second option, Cover 2, has been a strength for Carr in 33 passing attempts this season.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Notre Dame to be favored by two touchdowns, giving the Irish an edge in the market.

The difference in the game is second-level tackling, a strength for Notre Dame and not BYU.

Look for Walton to continue his rise as the next great Notre Dame rusher while Bachmeier struggles to break tackles against the Irish at the linebacker and secondary levels.

Pick: Notre Dame -10.5 or Better