Texas vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model: Who wins the Red River Shootout?

One of college football’s great rivalry games renews this weekend as the Red River Shootout finds No. 1 ranked Texas facing off against Oklahoma in a critical test for both sides, if for very different reasons just a month into the 2026 season.

Texas, still the class of the SEC, owns signature wins against Ohio State and Tennessee that catapulted it into the top AP ranking. Oklahoma fell out of the poll after falling to 2-2 and is once again facing structural questions around what remains a very anemic offense.

What do the analytics department think of this week’s matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ college football model to project the outcome, and use it to lock in our own prediction.

Texas vs. Oklahoma score prediction: Can Arch Beat the Sooners’ Defense?

Sep 26, 2026; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) celebrates after a college football game between Tennessee and Texas at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn. on Sept. 26, 2026. Mandatory Credit: Brianna Paciorka-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

It may not come as a surprise that the Longhorns are getting the favorite treatment against the Sooners, and by a decent margin, too.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 27 to 17 and will win the game by an expected margin of 9.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Longhorns a very strong 73 percent chance of victory, one of the biggest discrepancies of any game this weekend.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 146-122-3 in its picks against the spread with a 54.4 win percentage.

What actually happens? Can the Longhorns defend their No. 1 ranking?

Sep 4, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) in action during the game against the UTEP Miners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

That’s a different question. Even with a Texas win, its place atop the AP poll could be in danger anyway as pollsters may be more impressed with what happens between No. 2 Georgia and No. 6 Alabama as they face off in primetime.

A big win over the Sooners could sway enough voters to stay at No. 1, and everything looks like it should go the Longhorns’ way. Even with questions around Arch Manning’s continued development at the quarterback position.

Sure, Texas is 4-0 and Manning looks much better than this time last year, but he has also clearly still not performed to expectations, either. Arch is a decent 63 percent passer but is making some curious decisions and doesn’t look completely at ease in the pocket against better-quality fronts.

Against an Oklahoma defense that, despite everything, remains one of college football’s best – 4th against the pass, top 25 in scoring, and 3rd in third-down conversions – Manning could get seriously rattled early.

But the Longhorns still have an advantage of their own on defense. They have battery of elite pass rushers who can wreck OU’s blockers, shrink the pocket, and get at John Mateer on a regular basis. That should give the Texas offense enough chances to separate and pull away late. Horns by 10.

What happens? Texas beats Oklahoma, and covers the spread.

Line: Texas -8.5, 39.5, via DraftKings

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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