Texas has an Arch Manning problem. Michigan may have solved its own

We’re deep enough into the college football season to know there’s serious trouble deep in the heart of Texas.

Ole Miss arrives Saturday, Oct. 24, for what feels like Steve Sarkisian’s last, best shot at dragging Texas back into the College Football Playoff race.

The biggest problem? Quarterback. And Texas has plenty of company.

College football picks: Texas or Ole Miss? Week 8 predictions for Top 25 games

Let’s start there with Week 8’s five biggest questions.

Does Arch Manning last entire game as Texas QB in CFP elimination game?

When USA TODAY Sports examined college football’s most expensive rosters this summer, there was no debate about Texas. The Longhorns were a “Have,” built with the kind of lavish spending expected to produce championship results.

So far, they haven’t gotten them from Manning.

He has thrown for 1,295 yards, 68th nationally, with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. His offensive line certainly deserves some blame after allowing 17 sacks. But Manning owns some of those, too, after holding the ball too long.

Now comes the uncomfortable question.

With top-10 Ole Miss visiting Austin, how much patience can Sarkisian afford if Manning struggles again?

At some point, the goals of Texas football must outweigh protecting Manning’s psyche. If Saturday demands a change, Sarkisian has to make it. Otherwise, Texas could be staring at a second straight season on the outside of the CFP.

Hayes: Arch Manning’s Texas experiment is failing. Is a breakup next?

Does Tommy Carr elevate Michigan’s offense enough to become Wolverines’ full-time starting QB?

Talk about a brutal first assignment.

True freshman Tommy Carr, grandson of Lloyd Carr — the last Michigan coach to win a scandal-free national championship — rescued the Wolverines in the second half against Penn State. Now he has a chance to rescue something bigger: Michigan’s hope for the future.

Doing it against defending CFP champion Indiana is another matter.

Bryant Haines’ disciplined, sophisticated defense is nothing like Penn State’s, which earlier this month was gashed for more than 400 rushing yards by Northwestern.

But Carr doesn’t even have to pull off the upset to change the conversation. Play well against Indiana, and suddenly Michigan may have found the quarterback to build around in the early days of the Kyle Whittingham era.

That would create another fascinating domino: If Carr is the guy, Bryce Underwood may have to find employment elsewhere in college football, freeing Michigan from a significant chunk of its roster payroll in the process.

Hayes: Michigan wasted millions on Bryce Underwood. Its best QB cost almost nothing

Does Dylan Raiola keep hope alive for Oregon while also reviving his career?

A former consensus five-star prospect and would-be Nebraska savior, Dylan Raiola instead saved Oregon’s season last week in a 17-14 comeback win over, of all teams, Nebraska.

Raiola threw for just 59 yards after coming off the bench, but did enough to keep the Ducks alive. Now he’s expected to start at Illinois, which is slogging through its own disappointing season, just nowhere near Oregon’s level of disappointment. The Ducks began the season ranked in the top five of both the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25. Now they’re clinging to No. 25 in the coaches poll and have disappeared from the AP rankings entirely.

Lose at Illinois, with Northwestern, Ohio State and Michigan waiting over the next three weeks, and Oregon’s season goes from life support to the coroner’s table.

There is reason to believe Raiola can prevent that.

When a concussion knocked Dante Moore out against then-unbeaten USC on Sept. 26, Raiola came off the bench and completed 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns. Then came last week’s game-winning drive against Nebraska.

Maybe those two performances can revive Raiola while simultaneously resuscitating the Ducks.

Raiola has thrown for more than 5,300 yards in his career, with 37 touchdowns against 19 interceptions. He even ripped off a 12-yard run against Nebraska, noteworthy for a quarterback who has yet to score a rushing touchdown in his career.

Now comes his biggest opportunity.

If Raiola seizes it, Oregon can still be a Playoff team.

When will Dante Moore return? Oregon’s season may depend on the answer

Can Lane Kiffin beat Auburn to keep LSU’s CFP hopes alive?

Kiffin is now on his third SEC program as a head coach, and he previously turned down opportunities at both Auburn and Florida.

Now it’s Alex Golesh’s Auburn Tigers standing between Kiffin and his dream of coaching in the CFP.

Kiffin famously guided Ole Miss into the Playoff last season, only to bolt for Baton Rouge and watch replacement Pete Golding lead the Rebels on a memorable postseason run.

Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off its biggest win in years, an upset of then-No. 1 Georgia. There’s some delicious history here, too: Kiffin spurned Auburn in 2022, forcing the Tigers to pivot to Hugh Freeze, who was fired in November 2025.

Now Auburn gets another shot at him.

If the Tigers beat LSU for the first time since 2021, Kiffin will experience something he rarely has during his nomadic college coaching career:

Real pressure. And this time, there won’t be another job to run to.

Does Luke Fickell finally get signature win at Wisconsin or does USC set up potential top-10 showdown against Ohio State?

Unless we’re counting the Guaranteed Rate Bowl win over Oklahoma State in his Wisconsin debut, or this season’s comeback against a then-No. 13 Penn State team that has since fallen apart, Luke Fickell is still searching for his signature win with the Badgers.

Since taking over full time before the 2023 season, Fickell has come up empty against the Big Ten’s best: Indiana, Iowa, Oregon and Ohio State. Beating No. 15 USC would qualify as a breakthrough, even if the Trojans still look a little hollow themselves.

Speaking of which, the Lincoln Riley era at USC may have peaked almost immediately, with Caleb Williams winning the Heisman Trophy and the Trojans nearly reaching the Playoff in 2022. The program never really recovered from the beating Kyle Whittingham’s Utah team delivered in that season’s Pac-12 championship game.

USC is 30-18 under Riley since that loss.

And while the Trojans have a vulnerable Ohio State team coming to Los Angeles next week, that opportunity means nothing if they stumble first at Wisconsin.

Two coaches still chasing proof their programs are headed somewhere. One of them gets it Saturday.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Texas has an Arch Manning problem. Michigan may have solved its own