Staff Predictions: Michigan Football vs Indiana

The Michigan Wolverines return to The Big House this weekend to take on the reigning national champions, Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers. In this week’s Roundtable, Maize n Brew staff members discuss last week’s win vs Penn State, give some bold predictions for tomorrow’s game and more!

Michigan made the switch from Bryce Underwood to Tommy Carr last week, resulting in a win vs Penn State. Did Michigan turn a corner in this game, or was this just one good performance thanks to some extra juice coming from the QB change?

Von: I think it could be a little mix of both. The offense certainly played a lot better when Carr was in at quarterback, and the run game finally got things going with a couple explosive runs from Bryson Kuzdzal and Savion Hiter. Penn State’s run defense isn’t good this year, so that probably played a part in the Wolverines finally getting things going on the ground, but the quarterback change probably played a small part as well.

Kellen: I was thrilled to see the offense actually look competent in the second half, but I don’t think the cause of the improvement was as simple as Bryce Underwood getting benched. I think the playcalling got a lot better in that second half, with Jason Beck calling the north-and-south runs the fanbase had been begging for. In addition to that, I do think the offensive line got going in that second half.

Scotty: Michigan finally had some success running the ball in the second half, which was great to see. The quarterback change had to happen, and Tommy Carr looked incredibly poised for a true freshman. We will learn a lot in his first start against IU.

Nick: I think there was definitely some extra juice from the change, as evidenced by the energy on the field and in the stadium in the second half. However, I think that contributes to the team turning the corner just a bit. With how well the defense has played this year, the offense just needs to be competent, which is what it looked like with Carr in the game. As long as he’s making the right decisions on where the ball needs to go, keeping it out of harms way and making good reads in the run game, Michigan’s offense will be doing just enough that its defense can still carry them to wins.

Matt: Michigan did turn a corner, but it had more to do with how Jason Beck’s playcalling changed with Carr at quarterback rather than Underwood. If Beck reverts to calling the same offense for Carr that he has Underwood against Indiana, we’ll be right back to frustration. If he sticks with running between the tackles and minimizing the pre-snap motion as he did in the second half for Carr, we may have something here.

Grace: I thought the offense looked better overall against Penn State and was encouraged that Jason Beck seemed to call some plays that made more sense given the personnel on the field. They targetted Hogan Hansen a few times, looked at Travis Johnson on a few plays, and even took a few shots downfield. There’s no denying that Tommy Carr came in and played confidently. It makes it easy to overlook the fact Michigan still had to punt on the first drive he was on the field. I’m. not sure they turned a corner, but the Wolverines were able to run the football against a bad rush defense, and that’s a victory.

Other than the QB change, what else stood out to you against Penn State?

Von: I thought the offensive line played well for the first time in a while for the most part, especially considering it was a reshuffled starting lineup with right guard Brady Norton missing the game due to injury. The offensive line’s higher level of play also played a role in the running game getting going and Carr having moderate success the handful of times he threw the ball. Hopefully Andrew Sprague and the other injured offensive linemen can come back soon and help take this offense up another level.

Kellen: Chris Bracy deserves a shoutout in this section. With Jyaire Hill giving up a lot of big catches on the other side of the field, Bracy racked up eight tackles, had a sack, recorded one of the key interceptions of the game and also forced a fumble. Michigan is going to need Bracy with Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh on deck.

Scotty: The run game. Michigan had struggled mightily in that area, especially creating big plays. It was really nice to see the backs break off some long runs.

Nick: I think it’s hard to ignore the run game’s success. Runs between the tackles were something we’ve been begging for for several weeks now and they came in bunches during the second half. The Wolverines finished the game with a season-high 211 yards on the ground with Tommy Carr, Savion Hiter, Jordan Marshall and Bryson Kuzdzal all getting involved. It looked like the run game that was expected coming into the year, but now it’s just a matter of keeping that momentum rolling in the second half of the year.

Matt: Jason Beck finally showed signs of relinquishing his stubbornness. His refusal to change his scheme was dooming the team through 5.5 games. When he decided to run between the tackles and let Carr get in the game, everything changed. Also, Penn State is really, really bad.

Grace: Since I focused on the offense and QB in my answer above, I’ll take a moment to address the defense. I didn’t love the play from the cornerbacks in this one. I felt like every single contested ball went Penn State’s way and they had a few coverage issues at points in the game. I still like what these players bring to the field, but would like to see more from them against Indiana.

Turning our attention to this week’s game, what is the biggest matchup Michigan must win to even have a chance at upsetting Indiana?

Von: Michigan’s pass rush needs to show up this weekend and disrupt Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover from getting into a rhythm. Hoover got banged up last week against Ohio State and looked to be in pain as he was throwing the ball late in the game, so he likely will not be 100 percent on Saturday. John Henry Daley, Dom Nichols, Trey Pierce and others along the defensive line need to be on their A-game to give the Wolverines any sort of shot at pulling off what would be their biggest win, by far, of the season.

Kellen: To piggyback off my last answer, Michigan has to contain Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh. Both those guys will be playing on Sundays, and their big-play ability can jumpstart an Indiana offense that hasn’t always been reliable. Hill, Bracy and the rest of Michigan’s secondary will need to play the games of their lives for Michigan to pull off the upset.

Scotty: I’m really eyeing the turnover battle. Michigan has to play clean football on offense, and while Josh Hoover has no interceptions this year, he was the most turnover-prone quarterback in college football last year. Michigan’s defense has four interceptions the last two games, so hopefully it can force Hoover into a couple mistakes.

Nick: I just talked about the run game’s step forward against Penn State, but I think Michigan is going to need to (and perhaps might be able to) have a bit more success through the air to beat Indiana. Indiana’s run defense is one of the nation’s best, but they’re roughly middle of the pack against the pass. If Michigan is able to find some success through the air early in the game, it might lead to some lighter boxes that can open up the run game more.

Matt: Jason Beck vs himself is the matchup I’m watching. Michigan’s defense has been very good, if not elite all year. The offense is still a great unknown. If Michigan wants any chance of pulling off the upset, it has to minimize plays with the rhino and get the running game going.

Grace: Michigan’s pass rush needs to slow down Indiana’s offense by getting to the quarterback. Don’t let Indiana take time to get explosive plays in the passing game. It might also allow the secondary to pick off Josh Hoover.

If Michigan does manage to beat Indiana, would you consider the Wolverines back in the Big Ten and CFP races, or are the losses to Iowa and Minnesota already too much to overcome?

Von: They’d have an outside shot at sneaking into the CFP if they win out, but any dream of Michigan winning the Big Ten is totally dead. Losing that Minnesota game was the final nail in the coffin. And with IU this weekend and games at Oregon and Ohio State still looming, it’s highly unlikely the Wolverines win out anyways.

Kellen: If Michigan beats Indiana, I truly think that anything is possible. This would help Michigan build momentum, and the Big Ten has looked more and more wide-open with each passing week. I don’t think an 11-seed or 12-seed would be out of the question with an upset win, but a Big Ten title feels like a pipe dream.

Scotty: Anything is possible. With injuries plaguing the top teams left on the schedule, you never know what will happen, and you’d think that 10-2 would get Michigan into the CFP.

Nick: When it comes to tie-breaker scenarios, it’s always a mystery, so it’s probably too early to tell for the Big Ten race. For the CFP race though, I do think those two losses would be too much to overcome, especially since Minnesota isn’t really looking to be anything special. Even if the Wolverines win out, the Oklahoma win is rather un-impressive, a win over Oregon wouldn’t look as impressive as it would’ve in the preseason, and even beating Ohio State in Columbus (maybe without Julian Sayin) probably doesn’t do all that much for the resume.

Matt: While the standings may show them as back, I would need to see more. The loss to Minnesota specifically was very bad. In a world where we’re confident in the direction of the program, I’d say the schedule sets up nicely with Rutgers, Michigan State and Oregon on deck. However, this team has proven it can lose to just about anyone.

Grace: Given the perception around Indiana this season, I’m not sure a win would be enough to get Michigan back in the CFP race. Though I will say this season has been crazy, so there could still be a slim chance they make it in, but I’m not getting my hopes up.

Give us a bold prediction for tomorrow’s game.

Von: Tommy Carr throws his first career touchdown pass, a 19-yard strike to JJ Buchanan in the right corner of the end zone with 6:03 left in the second quarter. Is that specific enough for you?

Kellen: Chase Sowell outgained Michigan’s entire pass-catching group last week by a margin of 151 yards to 90. I think Charlie Becker manages to double the passing yards Michigan gains by himself in this one. That dude is a stud who will be making NFL fans very happy this time next season.

Scotty: Michigan will play both Bryce Underwood and Tommy Carr.

Nick: Josh Hoover hasn’t thrown a pick yet this year, but I think he throws two tomorrow. Indiana might try to get a little aggressive, especially coming off a loss, but Michigan’s defense has started to generate turnovers in bunches with five in the last two games.

Matt: The Michigan defense picks off Josh Hoover twice leading to points shortly thereafter. Indiana also rushes for less than 100 yards.

Grace: Josh Hoover throws his first interception of the year. Michigan wins the turnover battle.

What’s the final score and why?

Von (2-4): Indiana 27, Michigan 17. I think this will be a game where Michigan is outclassed in every which way possible, but doesn’t get totally blown out given the overall level talent on the roster.

Kellen (3-3): I think Indiana’s healthy defense and big play threats at wide receiver will be too much for Michigan to handle. I think Michigan’s defense keeps it close early, but a 23-10 victory for Indiana feels likely.

Scotty (0-4): Indiana wins, 24-10. I still don’t think the offense has enough fire power to beat a team like IU.

Nick (2-4): I think it’ll be closer than many are expecting, with the floor for Michigan’s offense seemingly rising a bit, but I’ll still give the nod to Indiana winning, 23-17. This will be the best offense Michigan has seen all year, and it’ll be able to do just enough to best Michigan’s defense.

Matt: (3-1): Indiana 21, Michigan 13. I have some hope the secondary can bottle up Indiana’s passing game. However, the IU defense is arguably the best Michigan will see all season. As happy as I am Michigan made the switch to Carr, this offense is still severely flawed due to Beck’s scheme and playcalling. I expect the Hoosier defense to shut down the Wolverine offense for large portions of the game.

Grace (4-2): 28-21, Michigan. While you’d expect Indiana to come out playing angry after losing to Ohio State, I’m going to say the loss has the opposite effect. The Hoosiers come out playing distracted, and the Wolverines capitalize on some big mistakes and give the offense a short field.