What Gophers need to do to beat Iowa for Floyd of Rosedale

MINNESOTA vs. IOWA

When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
Stream: FS1
Radio: KFXN-100.3 FM
Weather: 70 degrees, overcast, 15 mph north wind
Betting spread: Iowa, minus-7

Records: The Gophers (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) fell 41-13 to Purdue on Oct. 10 before a bye last weekend. The No. 15 Hawkeyes (5-1, 2-1) blew past Washington 41-24 in Seattle on Oct. 9 before their own idle week.

History: Minnesota leads the overall series 63-54-2, but Iowa has won 10 of the past 11 meetings and the previous five in Minneapolis since 2016.

Trophy case: The Gophers are attempting to win all three of their rivalry trophies — Floyd of Rosedale, the Little Brown Jug and Paul Bunyan’s Axe — for the first time since October 1978. Iowa currently holds all four of it traveling trophies.

RELATED: Iowa reporter talks rivalry with Gophers, Ferentz owning Fleck, Hawkeyes’ playoff hopes

Storyline: The stat that overshadows P.J. Fleck’s tenure at Minnesota is his 1-8 record against archival Iowa, and many south of the state line don’t even give him credit for the 2023 win due to Cooper DeJean’s called-back punt return touchdown.

A home win over Iowa would break a hex on Fleck and taste extra sweet for the damage it would inflict on the Hawkeyes’ growing College Football Playoff dreams.

Big question: Which team will win on the ground?

Comparing the Gophers’ two Big Ten wins and its two Power Four losses, the U offense is averaging 2.0 more yards per carry in the victories, while its defense is allowing 3.7 more yards per rush in the defeats.

The Hawkeyes are top five in the nation in rush yards per attempt on both on offense and defense.

With more success on the ground, the Gophers likely lift the 98-pound pig.

Key matchup: Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey vs. Hawkeyes defensive backs. Lindsey threw three interceptions in the 41-3 loss at Iowa last season but has talked about learning a lesson after trying to do too much in that game.

The Hawkeyes have not been great in the back end, allowing 6.9 yards per attempt (61st in nation) with only four interceptions (tied for 72nd), so Minnesota should be able to find more success through the air than on the ground.

RELATED: Is P.J. Fleck’s conservative approach on fourth down holding Gophers back?

Stats: The Hawkeyes have still held the Gophers to 14 points or less in five of the last six meetings, including the last four. With a 5-1 record over that span, Iowa has beaten Minnesota by an average of 15 points (26-11).

News: On Tuesday, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz named Jeremy Hecklinski the starting quarterback against Minnesota. Hank Brown won the QB competition by the start of Big Ten play but sprained his shoulder in the 31-14 loss to Ohio State on Oct. 3. Hecklinski then completed 74% of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Washington win.

Connection: Iowa defensive tackle Bryce Hawthorne — an Osseo alum, South Dakota State transfer and son of former Gopher Ed Hawthorne — leads the Hawkeyes with 3½ tackles for lost yards in Big Ten games.

“Really playing at a high level,” Ferentz said Tuesday. “More decisive (and with) confidence.”

Tidbit: The Gophers anticipate roughly 200 former players to return for the homecoming game.

Key injuries: Guard Jaden Ball has missed the past two games but was listed as probable to play on Thursday’s report. Tight end Pierce Walsh and defensive tackle Riley Sunram remained questionable.

Prediction: The Hawkeyes’ consistency this season, and recently in these rivalry games, make it hard to pick against them this year. Minnesota’s issues on both sides of the run game underscore picking Iowa. Hawkeyes 30, Minnesota 21.