St. John’s men’s basketball vs. Monmouth game preview: Scouting, keys, and prediction

The long wait is over. The Red Storm are set to raise the curtain on their 2026-27 season, along with their second consecutive Big East championship banner, in Monday’s opener against Monmouth (6:30 p.m., ESPN+).

While the regular season has arrived, the eligibility battles on the court haven’t stopped. Fifth-year transfers Keyshawn Hall and Reed Bailey, as well as former G-Leaguer Babacar Sane, are still awaiting full NCAA clearance. All three are active for Monday night’s season opener thanks to temporary restraining orders.

St. John’s has won their last 12 season openers dating back to the 2014-15 season and hasn’t lost a home opener since 2003, when they fell to Marquette. The Red Storm have defeated opponents by an average margin of 27.3 points in opening games during the Rick Pitino era. Last year, the Red Storm shredded Quinnipiac in a 108-74 blowout on opening night.

The Red Storm are undefeated in four previous meetings with Monmouth, and they face the Hawks for the first time in five years. The Johnnies took an 88-83 victory that was more uncomfortable than they hoped in their last Nick Rutherford Bowl on December 9, 2021.

What to watch for in the Storm

Major Key Alert:It’s very difficult to decipher the offensive hierarchy on this Red Storm team considering how many talented scorers populate the roster, but one player has established himself as an early number one option. Keyshawn Hall averaged a team-best 19.0 points per game over the Red Storm’s three scrimmage games, and scored 24 points in each of his starts against Rutgers and Texas. Rick Pitino called Hall “one of the best bucket-getters” he’s coached in his career, and if Hall gets fully cleared by the NCAA, he could be a serious Big East Player of the Year candidate.

In a Flow: Nothing is preventing Ian Jackson from breaking out as a junior, and he’s shown a level of confidence in preseason play that didn’t exist last season. Jackson posted 18.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game in three scrimmages. After a 0-of-6 first-half shooting performance against Drexel, he shot 51.3% from the field and 33.3% from three over his remaining five exhibition halves. Jackson looks very comfortable in his role, and he may have another gear or two he can reach.

Quinn-stantImpact: 16-to-one. That is Quinn Ellis’s assist-to-turnover ratio in 90 minutes of action against Rutgers and Texas. The 6-foot-4 point guard won’t jump out of the scoring column, but he can impact the game far beyond makes and misses. His selflessness and vision allow scorers like Hall, Jackson, and Tounde Yessoufou to focus on what they do best. Expect Ellis to log heavy minutes this season and potentially finish at the top of the Big East’s assist leaderboard by season’s end.

Scouting the Hawks

Longtime head coach King Rice is back for his 16th season in South Jersey, and he and the Hawks are still looking for that elusive NCAA Tournament bid. Monmouth hasn’t reached the Big Dance since 2006, and it’s been almost a decade since their magical “Bench Mob” seasons, when they won 27 or more games and back-to-back MAAC regular-season titles.

The Hawks rebounded from a 20-loss campaign with a 19-15 record last season, and recorded their highest KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ranking since 2017. Rice’s squad ranked 27th nationally in turnover percentage forced (19.9%), was among the top-60 teams in block percentage (11.9%), and held opponents to 49.6% shooting inside the arc. The CAA’s head coaches ranked Monmouth fifth in their league’s preseason poll.

“They’re a terrific one-on-one team, and it’s a great opener for us because we get to be ready for a lot of pressure,” Pitino said in Friday’s media availability.

Like many mid-majors, the Hawks were ravaged by the transfer portal. Four of their five top qualifying scorers are playing elsewhere this season, including Jason Rivera-Torres (15.8 ppg) and Justin Ray (11.3 ppg), now at High Point and Wake Forest, respectively. However, their highest returning scorer is due for a breakout season.

Sophomore forward Stefanos Spartalis is expected to become the Hawks’s number one option. The 6-foot-9 Greek international averaged 10.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 0.9 assists on 45.8% shooting last season, and put up double figures in all three of his games against power-conference competition.

Replacing Rivera-Torres and Ray is an intriguing three-man backcourt of transfers. North Carolina A&T transfer Lureon “Lo” Walker is expected to lead this troika. Walker played five games in an injury-shortened first season of Division I ball, but averaged 16.6 points across those contests and also had a 22-point showing against South Carolina with good efficiency. The former JuCo/D2 standout has great size at 6-foot-5 and shouldn’t be overwhelmed by Quinn Ellis and Ian Jackson.

Ashton Walker (no relation to Lureon) is another big guard standing at 6-foot-5. Walker struggled with shooting efficiency at La Salle in his freshman year, hitting 39.3% from the field and only 31.6% from three, so he’s hoping for better luck with a drop down to another conference level. Walker can also lead the offense, as shown by his 23.9% assist rate a season ago.

Brooklyn native Jakai Sanders is another point guard option for the Hawks. The 6-foot-3 guard put up 10.7 points, 4.3 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game last season with Le Moyne.

Keys to the game

Gain Some Early Separation – St. John’s needs to set the tone early and take control before the first half’s under-eight media timeout. That means asserting themselves on the glass and scoring in the paint consistently. Of course, by commanding the game, Rick Pitino would also get the luxury of experimenting with his lineups and giving youngsters like Theo Edema more playing time, as it should be the case in buy games like these.

Avoid Foul Trouble – Monmouth has great size for a mid-major squad, and the guards Walker will attack the basket. The Red Storm needs to deter those two from getting to the line and forcing their bigs into foul trouble, which they’ve struggled to avoid in preseason play.

No Extra Opportunities – If St. John’s wants to keep the Pepto-Bismol in the medicine cabinet for a game like this, they have to limit turnovers and offensive boards against this Monmouth squad. The Hawks were elite at forcing turnovers last season, and Stefanos Spartalis and Cornelius Robinson ranked among the top-500 players in offensive rebound percentage last season according to KenPom.

Prediction

It shouldn’t matter that St. John’s still needs to round into form; they can break this game open on the strength of their athleticism and offensive firepower. They only shot 29.4% from three against Texas, who are obviously far more talented than Monmouth, and still led by double digits for most of the game. Rust and sloppiness are to be expected in game number one, but so is a big win for the Red Storm to open their season. St. John’s wins, 98-67.