SEC Basketball Preview: Texas A&M in year 1 under Bucky McMillan

On the list of overachieving teams last year, you’d have to put Texas A&M right towards the top of the list. Bucky Ball full enveloped College Station, and the fan base seemed to embrace the fastball approach, after watching years of watching Buzz Williams slow-pitched softball approach.

A&M blitzed the pace early, and used an older undersized roster to take a lot of threes and hope for three point luck to break their favor. And it did, pretty often early on. Texas A&M started 17-4 with 2 overtime losses, and no losses to anyone outside the top 80 in the analytics. The level of difficultly on the schedule wasn’t high, but they did have wins over Florida State, Auburn, Oklahoma, Texas and Georgia. Their only top 30 opponent was a loss, but it was on the road at Tennessee.

Reality caught up a bit down the stretch, the schedule toughened up. The Aggies played Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas and lost to all. But they wrangled an 11-7 finish which is impressive when you consider Rashaun Agee and Zach Clemence were the only two players in the rotation who were taller than 6’6. And Agee might be only listed at 6’8, when he’s probably closer to 6’6.

Regardless of the style of basketball you play, it’s hard to win with the amount of injuries and lost games A&M played through. But the Aggies battled. They benefitted from the conferences top three point defense, and took the 2nd most threes by percentage, with the 7th highest percentage. So the three point shooting luck broke their way most nights. Still a first year with 11 wins and a 7-1 start was hard to overlook. Now the question is how can Bucky do it again?

Previous SEC Previews:

• 10. Oklahoma Sooner, 9-9
• 11. LSU Tigers, 7-11
• 12. Auburn Tigers, 7-11
• 13. Georgia Bulldogs: 6-12
• 14. South Carolina Gamecocks, 4-14
• 15. Ole Miss Rebels: 4-14
• 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-15

Texas A&M Aggies

• Last season: 22 – 12 (11-7 in conference) #39
• The Masses Prediction: 10th in conference
• SEC Media Pick: 9th in conference
• Analytics Average: 10th in conference, 30th overall

HEAD COACH: Bucky McMillan | 2nd Season, 22-12

After spending his entire coaching career in the city of Birmingham, Alabama, McMillan decided the Texas A&M job was too good to pass up. It was a smart and prudent move, especially for a coach well known for playing a specific style of basketball. Texas A&M has flaws as a basketball institution, but the fan base will largely leave you alone if you’re winning a fair amount. And the money is there if you can figure out how to win big.

Bucky believes what he believes about the game, and he’s not afraid to tell you. Even if it causes eye rolls quite often. For example this is what he said after beating Kentucky, inarguably their best win of the year: “I’m not coaching basketball afraid of my own shadow. Basketball is a war. We pick people up 94 feet because the court is 94 feet, not 40 feet. We play to live, we don’t play not to die.”

Relax man. The court is 94 feet, yes, but the basket is a 10 foot hoop which is the only way to score points. You don’t get extra points for floor burns or turnovers 86 feet from the basket. Basketball isn’t war, it’s a game played with the express purpose of scoring more than your opponent.

McMillan has been good at multiple different stops with this style, but good teams have been able to handle the pressure. As he upgrades the talent on the roster, it’ll be interesting to see how he changes the high pressure style to be any more conventional.

It’s really be a solid run the last five years. If Buzz Williams would have scheduled anyone in his non-con five years ago the Aggies would have easily had five straight NCAA trips, but as it is it’s four straight with one giving credit to McMillan. The program record for consecutive trips is 6 from 2006 to 2011.

Bucky seems primed to reach that if he can keep the momentum going this year.

LOST PRODUCTION

8th in % minutes, 73.88% | 10th in % points, 73.01% | 10th in % possessions, 73.78%

In revamping an empty roster last year, A&M leaned heavily into experienced players. When you do that, many of them leave the next season. Such is the case for the Aggies, as they lost 7 of their top 9 players in minutes and points. The biggest loss was Rashaun Agee, who went from a rotational player at USC to the Aggies leading scorer. Agee mostly used his size as an advantage, as the Aggies were often playing him at either the four or the five spot. His broad shoulders allowed him to craft space and be effective as a driver, and a passer from the top of the key.

Ruben Dominguez was one of the best shooters in the conference, and Marcus Hill provided instant offense.

We’re including Rylan Griffen here, but that’s tentative. He’s not officially on the online roster. But the expectation is if the court case holds, he’ll play for Texas A&M. Griffen, if he’s eligible, will be a key player. His play style is straight forward, he’s mostly a shooter off the catch, but he’s a sound defender, and provided quality starting minutes for A&M last year, as their second leading scorer, and also their second in minutes.

Everyone waiting for Mackenzie Mgbako’s breakout season had to wait another year when he was unable to get on the court. He missed the first five games following surgery for a Jones fracture in his right foot, then after getting back on the court for seven games he reinjured the foot and missed the rest of the season. If Mgbako is healthy he’s a talented swing forward who can provide scoring inside and out when he’s dialed in. But coming off a missed year, expect some early rust.

McMillan seems to have resurrected the career of Zach Clemence. As a former 4-star player, Clemence made the mistake of committing to Kansas out of high school, where he rarely got off the bench, and he stuck around for four seasons (truthfully I’m not sure how he’s eligble still since he played 3 years at KU, redshirted, and now is in year 2 at A&M). But Clemence became useful for the Aggies, he only averaged about 17 minutes a game, but he was able to provide a modicum of size, and shot the ball well.

The real key here is what the Aggies brought out of the portal, and if it will work. The big name is PJ Haggerty, who has been a bucket getter no matter where he’s played. After not playing much his freshman season at TCU, he left for Tulsa where he exploded averaging 21.2 points his sophomore season. He transferred to Memphis and scored 21.7 points for the Tigers, while landing on multiple All American lists. Then he tried to cash out and landed at Kansas State, where again he scored alot, but the Wildcats were terrible.

Keeping with the guard theme, McMillan also added flashy scoring guard Tyshawn Archie from McNeese, a quality ball handler in LSU transfer Jalen Reece, and Texas 5th year scoring guard Jordan Pope.

To shore up the interior, the oft-injured Tennessee transfer Cade Phillips will try to help out after three years in Knoxville. And Loyola Marymount swing forward Jalen Shelley, who is a former top 100 recruit and USC Trojan.. Shelley took advantage of the step down in competition to boost his stock and profile.

The freshmen class has two top 85 players who will fight for minutes, but Neiko Mundey might be more up against it as the guard rotation is alread deep.

So how will Bucky deploy this roster? True to his style, McMillan has rarely played any single player more than 70% of the minutes. Haggerty is going to test that therum as he’s averaged over 33 minutes per game even including his year at TCU. At Tulsa he played. 33.7, at Memphis he played 36.6, and at K-State he played 35.2. Haggerty has one of the highest minutes per game average the last two seasons. To get him under 70%, he’d have to drop down below 28 minutes per game.

With Haggerty almost assuredly at the top of the lineup, and a roster somewhat devoid of proven interior help, the hope here has to be for Mackenzie Mgbako to be able to fill in as much as possible.

Then there’s a smattering of guards with Jordan Pope, Jalen Reece, Tyshawn Archie, and Rylan Griffen left to sort out many of those minutes. There are a lot of preseason predictions which have Archie taking more of a lead, but I wonder how he’ll adjust to being more of an off the ball guard with so many reps going to Haggerty. Pope, Reece, and Griffen are all more accustomed to playing off the ball.

What happens inside is anyone’s guess, Cade Philllips has been a career backup at Tennessee. He’s been good, but he’s never been the guy. Jalen Shelley is more of a big wing, than a post, Zach Clemence has never been on the floor for more than 20% of the minutes. That leaves Josh Irving, a freshman. Cleary the post spot is the Aggies weakest position.

Eight Quad 4 home games is on the high side. Last year A&M put together a non conference schedule that looked tougher than it ended up being, and this one has the same hallmarks. There’s just one top 30 matchup, and that’s a neutral site game against Marquette. TCU, Xavier, Stanford, and Florida State should all be top 100 level teams, but they’re fighting for inclusion in the tournament, instead of being a team likely to land there. The same can be said for their home game against Oklahoma State, their first true test. But I really don’t like three sub 300 opponents in the lead up to league play.

Opening the SEC slate at home against Auburn is a really important game. Their home schedule doesn’t have a ton of wiggle room with home and home opponents of LSU, Vanderbilt, and Texas, then Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama. They need to win at least two from Vandy, LSU, and Texas, and then they’re probably needing four more to get to at least 6-2 at home. They can afford to drop a few home games because the road should give them opportunities with South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, all winnable games. Those three plus 6 home wins gets you to 9-9 and safely in the tournament

THE RULING

Under Buzz Williams, A&M’s fastest playing team ranked 202nd in tempo (number of team possessions in a game). Under McMillan, A&M raced out of the gates last season. Basically the polar opposite of what Aggie fans had watched for the previous 7 years. Eventually they settled a bit, finishing 41st in tempo, but that was more due to the amount of strain the depth and roster underwent as the season wore on, and a little of playing good teams who didn’t neccessarily want to fall into their trap. Texas A&M didn’t have a single game in the 60s in tempo —except for Pitt — during the non-conference.

But league play is different, and the SEC slowed their pace of play. Before January they played 4 games with tempos in the 80s, after January there wasn’t a single game played at that pace in regulation. They did have 2 overtime games see the 80s, but they had 5 games played in the 60s, and four more with a 70 pace.

Bucky Ball did not go wild against the SEC.

They did win games though.

And I think this team can do the same. But man, I’m not sure there are more diametrically opposed forces than who Bucky McMillan has been, and the immovable object of PJ Haggerty.

Haggerty is a really good player, but he’s had his way at three different stops, and while Memphis won with his style in the AAC, he hit a bit of a wall in making his style produce wins in the Big 12, and Tulsa limped to a 7-11 AAC finish with him leading the way.

The lesson is either he needs help, or he needs to change his approach. McMillan’s approach is to ask his players to give everything they have all the time, Haggerty does that with the ball in his hands. Haggerty’s assist rate is north of 20%, so it’s not even that he’s a ball hog and chucking shots. He’s just very used to the ball being in his hands, and him being on the floor a lot.

How Haggerty blends, and what McMillan can get on the inside are the only real questions about this team. The talent is there. There are a host of guards and wings, most of whom can shoot the basketball. You want Mgbako healthy, but Shelley is good enough to be Mackenzie-light, if Mgbako isn’t fully ready. If McMillan can figure out rebounding, and everyone buys into the rotation, the Aggies could be really good.

My Results: Texas A&M Aggies — 9th in Conference, 9-9

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections, and national media outlet predictions.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be, we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.