Gophers athletics director Mark Coyle used a newspaper term to describe a baseline expectation for the rest of his football team’s season.

“We talk about the importance of being above the fold in the paper, and what I mean by that is simply having a winning record,” Coyle told the Pioneer Press last week. “You’re getting to postseason bowl games and giving yourself an opportunity to win a bowl game.”

At 3-2 in Big Ten play heading into November, the Gophers are, indeed, in the top half of the conference standings, sitting in a six-way tie for fifth place. But they need one more win over the final month to reach bowl eligibility, and an outside chance at the College Football Playoff evaporated last weekend in Bloomington, Ind.

Minnesota was on the verge of rising into a top-three spot in the 18-team super conference but gave up the game-tying field goal in the final 19 seconds and lost in overtime to fourth-ranked Indiana.

The Gophers have another opportunity to climb Saturday when eighth-ranked and undefeated UCLA (5-0 in Big Ten play) comes to Huntington Bank Stadium for an 11 a.m. kickoff.

“We’ve got to be at our best,” head coach P.J. Fleck said. “The only thing we get to control is us. The only thing we get to control is the improvement we make from last week to this week. And that’s what we’re going to focus on. But (UCLA coach Bob) Chesney deserves a lot of credit. He’s done a really good job with that football team. They’re really good at what they do.”

The final month of the Gophers’ schedule is tied for 10th toughest in the nation based solely on opponent winning percentage. UCLA, Penn State, Northwestern and Wisconsin are a combined 23-9 (.719). In the Big Ten, only Illinois and Southern Cal will face better winning percentages.

The Gophers possess rivalry trophies Floyd of Rosedale and the Little Brown Jug after wins over Iowa and Michigan, respectively, but this season already has a what-might-have-been feel given the close loss to the Hoosiers (5-1) and an outlier 41-13 defeat at Purdue (2-3).

But any conversation about a program’s expectations in modern-day college football must take into account roster budgets, both revenue sharing and name, image and likeness (NIL). With that factored in, the Gophers are certainly “above the fold” this season.

Minnesota’s roster budget, estimated between $18-22 million, was roughly ranked 16th in the Big Ten, according to The Athletic’s reporting in September. With the Gophers tied for fifth in the conference standings, they are outperforming their roster budget by roughly 11 positions.

For the sake of this exercise, that plus-11 rating would put Minnesota in the top tier in the Big Ten with other lower-budget teams having winning seasons this far: Iowa (plus-12), Illinois (plus-10) and UCLA (plus-8).

The most underperforming teams in the league are winless Maryland (minus-7), Michigan State and Michigan (minus-6), Nebraska (minus-5) and Oregon (minus-2).

Maryland fired coach Mike Locksley last month, while Michigan State and Michigan have first-year coaches in Pat Fitzgerald and Kyle Wittingham.

Rutgers is 1-4 in Big Ten play and register at 14th in The Athletic’s roster-budget list; that’s minus-2 in this demonstration. Head coach Greg Schiano might be on the hot seat, and this week, Scarlet Knights AD Keli Zinn showed how some of these comparisons can be used to evaluate coaches.

“It’s essentially a benchmark about where they are at Rutgers as compared to those they are competing against, and then you layer in the expectation as a result of that,” Zinn said on the Navigating Sports Business Podcast. “If we are investing in your roster, facilities and operations and salaries at ninth in the league, you should perform at ninth in the league.”

“If you are above that, fantastic, that’s awesome, keep going and how do we get it at an even better spot?” Zinn added. “But if all of those things put you ninth in the league and you are performing 14th, there is a problem.”

Zinn is referencing more categories of investment beyond just roster spending, but the Gophers are not among the big spenders in those areas, either.

Minnesota enters the final month of the season in a logjam in the Big Ten standings, and results of the next four games will only determine one, albeit crucial, data point on their success in 2026.

“Our goal is to get to a bowl game, compete in all these games and position Minnesota in a positive light,” Coyle said before the Indiana loss. “Again, we’ve had some great wins. We’ve had some tough losses, which we all know about. But we’ve got some great opportunities coming up, and we’ll continue to work hard and compete in those games.”

PECKING ORDER

Plus or minus rating based on current spot in the conference standings compared to place in The Athletic’s roster budget rankings. For instance, UCLA is No. 1 in the standings, but had the ninth-ranked roster budget, so they have a score of plus-8.

1. UCLA: +8
2. Indiana: +2
3. Ohio State: -2
4. Southern Cal: -1
5. Illinois: +10
Minnesota: +11
Iowa: +12
Oregon: -3
Northwestern: +7
Wisconsin: +3
11. Washington: +2
Michigan: -6
Nebraska: -5
Purdue: +7
15. Penn State: -8
16. Rutgers: -2
17. Maryland: -7
Michigan State: -6

Source: Yahoo Sports