MINNESOTA vs. UCLA

When: 11 a.m. Saturday
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
Stream: FOX
Radio: KFXN-100.3 FM
Weather: 46 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph north wind
Betting spread: UCLA, minus-4.5

Records: The Gophers (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) lost 23-16 in overtime to then-No. 4 Indiana in Bloomington, Ind., last Saturday. No. 5 UCLA (8-0, 5-0) beat Nevada 27-0 in an abnormal October nonconference game last weekend.

History: The Gophers have not played UCLA at home since 1977 and only four times total. The U has a 3-1 all-time record against the Bruins, with a 21-17 win in their first Big Ten matchup at the Rose Bowl Stadium in 2024.

Big question: Is UCLA legit? The Bruins’ opponents in Big Ten play are a combined 8-17. Their best win was 17-15 over then-No.13 Oregon in Eugene on Oct. 10, but they have also benefitted from playing Maryland and Michigan State, which are a combined 0-10 in Big Ten play. And Wisconsin and Purdue are a combined 5-5 in league play.

Context: In his first year, new head coach Bob Chesney has produced a huge turnaround. UCLA was 8-16 in their first two years in the Big Ten have matched that win total so far this season. Chesney took James Madison to the College Football Playoff last year.

Key matchup: Gophers offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh vs. Bruins defense.

UCLA is first in the nation in defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, while Minnesota is 115th, according to CollegeFootballData.com.

Harbaugh’s struggling unit faces another top defense, but will need to find ways to challenge the Bruins more than the short passing game he deployed against the Hoosiers.

Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck on the Bruins’ defense: ‘They’re incredibly aggressive, they’re long, they do a great job with their hands, violent disengage. You even hear it a lot in the players’ quotes … how much they love playing in that defense.”

Stat: Both teams take care of the football, but the Bruins are buoyed turnovers. UCLA’s defense lead the nation with 26 takeaways and is No. 2 in turnover margin at plus-15. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 19th at plus-5.

Key injuries: Gophers tight ends Pierce Walsh and Julian Johnson are doubtful, while safety Garrison Monroe is out and linebacker Mason Carrier is questionable, per Thursday’s unavailability report. Johnson suffered a scary injury at Indiana, while Walsh has missed the last two games and Monroe one.

Comparison: Since quarterback Nico Iamaleava was injured at Oregon, Ty Dieffenbach has been underwhelming, with a 124.3 efficiency rating in his four games. Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey has struggled with poise in the pocket in recent weeks and his efficiency rating has dropped to 121.9 across all eight games.

Both are outside of the top 15 in the Big Ten in that category. Lindsey has shown he can produce at this level, but his three-touchdown game in a road win at Washington was back in September.

Player to watch: Don’t let Wayne Knight’s size fool you. Listed at 5-foot-7, 193 pounds, the fifth-year senior running back transferred in from James Madison and has averaged 6.2 yards per carry while scoring 12 rushing touchdowns.

“He’s extremely crafty,” Gophers defensive coordinator Danny Collins said. “He can find those small little creases. He’s really patient. He can accelerate. He’s a tremendous running back. They have multiple tremendous running backs,” including Anthony Woods and Jaivian Thomas.

Prediction: Here’s a difficult-to-make vote of confidence in the Gophers’ beleaguered offense to do just a little bit more to beat a UCLA team that hasn’t quite proved itself this season. The over/under of 38½ points shows respect for both defenses. Minnesota, 20-19

Source: Yahoo Sports