Opponent Offense Preview: USC Trojans

Both teams come into this one licking their wounds. USC let their chance to have a statement victory slip away, falling 41-27 to Oregon at the Coliseum, while Washington couldn’t get its offense going to dig out of an early hole against Minnesota. Now the Huskies head south to face a USC offense that has scored at least 39 points in four of its five games. To the (offense) preview.

The Numbers

(national rank in parenthesis)

Points per game: 39.8 (26th)
Total yards per game: 489.4 (18th)
Rushing yards per game: 164.4 (65th)
Passing yards per game: 325.0 (10th)
Turnovers per game: 1.0 (77th; 5 giveaways in 5 games)
3rd down conversion: 56.1% (32-of-57)
3-and-out rate: 2% (1st)
4th down conversion: 66.7% (8-of-12)
Time of possession: 32:56
Sacks allowed per game: 1.6
Red zone: 22 scores on 28 trips (19 touchdowns)

They are also #2 in passing success rate, #3 in passing downs success rate, #10 in points per drive and #1 in yards per drive. They can move the football.

Key Players

This offense runs through redshirt senior QB Jayden Maiava, who passed on the NFL Draft to come back for another year with Lincoln Riley. Through five games he’s 110-of-157 (70.1%) for 1,499 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions, and as of this week he leads the country in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. He’s got a smooth, quick release with great touch and ability to layer the ball accurately into different zone windows. The number that jumps out is 9.5 yards per attempt – he’s aggressive throwing downfield. He’s not a designed runner and likes to stay in the pocket and scan the field. USC has allowed just eight sacks this season, though Maiava took only 11 all of last year.

RB King Miller is the lead back. He has 412 rushing yards on 77 carries (5.4 per carry) with three touchdowns and ranks third in the Big Ten in rushing yards. He had 74 yards on 13 carries against Oregon, including a 27-yard run. He’s a sturdy 6-0 and 215 pound back who can absorb contact, and has good anticipation and feel for getting downhill quickly. He’s good at finding the seam and getting upfield in a hurry.

USC’s top three pass catchers are all true freshmen. WR Kayden Dixon-Wyatt leads the team with 25 catches for 372 yards and three scores (14.9 per catch). Against Oregon he had seven catches for 114 yards and a touchdown, and every one of those catches went for a first down or a score. He’s the guy Maiava looks for when he needs something. Freshman WR Trent Mosley is another exciting young talent who was the breakout star of the first three weeks with 13 catches for 255 yards and four touchdowns, plus an 86-yard punt return touchdown against Louisiana. Lastly, freshman TE Mark Bowman is second on the team with 21 catches for 204 yards and two touchdowns. He caught six balls against Oregon. However, both he and Mosley are listed as questionable on today’s injury report. Sophomore WR Zacharyus Williams has been a steady contributor this season with 10 catches and will get more looks if those two are out or limited.

The Scheme

This is Lincoln Riley’s offense, now in its second year with Luke Huard (yes, of those Huards) as offensive coordinator. It’s often called a “power raid,” as in, a spread passing attack with a real commitment to the run. USC has 173 rushes to 172 pass attempts this season, so basically a 50/50 split.

Against Oregon, the Trojans lined up in the shotgun on virtually every snap, and most of those came without a huddle (the only exceptions were one 4th and 1 run and end of half kneel downs.) The run game mostly goes between the tackles, and they aren’t afraid to also run on third-and-medium. They handed it off on 3rd-and-4 twice last week, picking up 11 yards once and one yard the other time.

The passing game is built around the short middle of the field, with Dixon-Wyatt and Bowman as the main targets underneath. The deep shots don’t come often, but they usually hit. The 31-yard touchdown to Dixon-Wyatt came on a throw down the middle, and WR Boobie Feaster’s 27-yard catch down the right side set up a touchdown in the third quarter (he’s another of the true freshman USC is relying this season, with one catch per game this season.) Riley isn’t shy on fourth down either. USC has 12 fourth-down attempts this season and went 4-of-5 against Oregon.

The stat that best explains this offense might be its 3-and-out rate. At 2%, USC has the lowest in the country. Even Oregon, which won comfortably, never forced a three-and-out. Aside from a kneel down at the end of the first half, every USC possession in that game went at least six plays or ended in points. The challenge is that a defense can’t count on short USC drives to flip field position. It’s likely they will gain at least one first down, so the defense has to make stops on the fifth or sixth play of a drive, after USC has momentum.

Final Thoughts

If it isn’t clear by now, this is one of the most dangerous offenses in college football. Even after losing key pieces from last year and its starting center to a training camp injury, Lincoln Riley has this offensive engine humming as usual. Having Maiava back helps, but the freshmen have plugged in without missing a beat. Obviously if two of their young stars are out in Mosley and Bowman, that’s a good chunk of their production, but you can probably count on Riley to ensure there isn’t much of a drop off.

On paper, Washington has the defense to impact this offense, if they can avoid the penalties that gift free yards. The Huskies are allowing 16.8 points and 289.3 yards per game, opponents are converting only 29% of their third downs, and the defense has nine sacks and six interceptions through four games. If the front can win on early downs and make Maiava hold the ball, Walters can get aggressive. When the Trojans can’t win on early downs, the offense stalls (which is true of most offenses, to be fair.) In the Oregon game, three drives were stopped inside the Oregon 25 and they settled for field goal attempts. USC was converting 65% of its third downs (30-of-46) through the first four games, then went just 2-of-11 against Oregon.

The problem is that this is by far the best offense Washington has seen, and it’s not particularly close. Maiava is playing at basically a Heisman level, the Trojans are at home, and they’ll be motivated after dropping a huge game last week. Washington’s defense will need to play its best game of the season.