Big Ten Football: Best Week 5 bets for Ohio State-Iowa, Michigan-Minnesota, more

Week 4 was very, very kind to us here on Betting the Big Ten. By very kind what I mean is that we went 6-3 on the week, thanks to a pair of overs covering by a half point each, as well as a shootout occurring in Los Angeles despite Dante Moore’s brutal head blow. After our best week to date, we now sit at 31-27-1 on the year.

Week 5 features just one ranked matchup as Ohio State travels to Iowa City as the Hawkeyes attempt to make magic happen twice. Outside of that, several teams such as Michigan, Penn State, and USC look for redemption.

As always, all lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Penn State (-2.5) at Northwestern, O/U 45.5, 8 p.m. Friday

Northwestern opens up their brand new stadium on Friday night in Evanston. Following their near-upset bid against Indiana and Penn State’s shocking white-out loss to Wisconsin, this spread slid all the way from 7 to 2.5. If you still believe in the Nittany Lions, that’s some incredible value on Penn State. However, Northwestern’s record is too good ATS (3-0) to allow me to pick Penn State. Instead I’ll go with the over as the Wildcats have gone over in ever game this season.

The pick: Over 45.5

Michigan (-5.5) at Minnesota, O/U 43.5, Noon Saturday

Like the Penn State game above, this spread has shifted massively following Michigan’s shocking home loss as it dropped from 8.5 to 5.5. More interestingly in my opinion is the movement of the total or lack thereof. Per The Action Network, 76 percent of all bets are on the over yet the total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.5. This implies there’s big money on the under. Given how much I still like Michigan’s defense, I’m inclined to agree.

The pick: Under 43.5

Michigan State at Wisconsin (-10), O/U 43.5, 12:30 p.m.

Can Wisconsin back up their performance against Penn State? Time will tell in a matchup where it’s shocking that the Badgers are favored by 10. This is a tough call to pick as MSU routinely goes under (1-3) while Wisconsin usually hits the over (3-1). Against the spread, both are 2-2 as well. By grasping at straws here, I’ll take another under as MSU is 0-1 against the total on the road while Wisconsin is just 1-1 against the total at home and as a favorite.

The pick: Under 43.5

Ohio State (-14.5) at Iowa, O/U 45.5, 3:30 p.m.

To me this is the easiest pick of the week in the Big Ten. If you believe in the up-down theory as much as I do, you know that Iowa is primed for a major let-down following an emotional win. The play here for me is Ohio State. I will say, however, that for most of this week the spread here was hanging around 13.5 which was much more enjoyable than the current 14.5 is.

The pick: Ohio State -14.5

Maryland at Nebraska (-14.5), O/U 52.5, 4 p.m.

A majority of the bets in this matchup are somewhat surprisingly on Maryland. However, the spread has slid from 11.5 all the way up to 14.5. There’s big money on Matt Rhule and the Cornhuskers. Add in the fact that Nebraska is 3-1 ATS and this is a simple choice for me.

The pick: Nebraska -14.5

Purdue at Illinois (-10), O/U 61.5, 4:15 p.m.

I was surprised that the spread here was only 10 given how putrid Purdue has played this season. However, there hasn’t been any movement on the spread and the bet share is roughly 50/50 which means the public likes it where it’s at. Instead, I’ll go back to the total. Both teams are a perfect 4-0 at hitting the over this year. 61.5 may feel high but until these teams don’t hit it, I’m inclined to go back to the well.

The pick: Over 61.5

Washington at USC (-9.5), O/U 58.5, 7:30 p.m.

Washington and USC are two of the worst teams in the conference at covering the spread. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS while the Trojans aren’t much better at 1-4. That immediately takes the spread off of the table for me. Against the total, Washington is just 2-2 but USC is a stronger 4-1. More importantly, both teams are hot as Washington has hit the over in each of their last two while USC has hit the over in three straight.

The pick: Over 58.5

Indiana (-23.5) at Rutgers, O/U 56.5, 8 p.m.

It’s safe to say that Indiana has been ever so slightly disappointing this year despite the unblemished record. They also haven’t played anyone so take their record and metrics with a giant grain of salt. Narrowing in on Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights are even ATS at 2-2 and tend to hit the over at 3-1. It’s not the strongest trend in the world but it’s enough for me to take.

The pick: Over 56.5