Oklahoma State vs. Houston prediction, odds, pick for Big 12 clash in Week 7

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It is a top 25 Big 12 clash on Saturday as Oklahoma State visits Houston. The Cowboys are trying to prove they belong in the conversation as the top team in the Big 12, while Houston is trying to avoid their second conference loss. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Oklahoma State-Houston prediction and pick.

Oklahoma State is 4-1 on the year. They opened up the year with a dud, losing on the road to Tulsa 24-10. They would rebound the next week. Oklahoma State faced a sixth-ranked Oregon team. Oklahoma State built a solid lead, leading by ten in the third quarter, but Oregon made the comeback. The Ducks took the lead in the fourth quarter, but nine unanswered fourth-quarter points by the Cowboys gave them the 39-31 win. After beating Murray State, Oklahoma State hit the road to visit West Virginia. Oklahoma State won the game 41-24, breaking an 18-game conference losing streak. Last time out, they defeated UCF 42-28 to move to 2-0 in Big 12 play.

Meanwhile, Houston is 5-1 on the year. They opened up with wins over Oregon State and Southern before hitting the road for the first time. The Cougars played Texas Tech in that game. Conner Weigman found Koby Young for a 46-yard touchdown to give Houston a 17-14 lead going into the half. Texas Tech would take back the lead, but Houston drove 88 yards, scoring with just 49 seconds left on the clock. Houston attempted the two-point conversion to tie the game, but it failed as Texas Tech won 28-26. The Cougars have since won three straight, defeating Georgia Southern, UCF, and Kansas State in the process.

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This will be the 23rd meeting between the two schools. Houston has 11 wins while Oklahoma has ten, and there has been one tie. Houston took the 39-17 win last year in Stillwater late in the year. The last time these two teams met in Houston was in 2023, when Oklahoma State won 43-30. The home team has not won since 2008, when Oklahoma State won at home. Houston has not won at home since 2006.

Odds provided by DraftKings

Oklahoma State vs. Houston Odds

Oklahoma State: +4.5 (-110)

Houston: -4.5 (-110)

Over: 62.5 (-110)

Under: 62.5 (-110)

Oklahoma State vs. Houston Key Injuries

Oklahoma State- DL Landon Dean (Out), S Moses Phillips III (Doubtful), WR Drayvon Standad (Probable)

Houston- LB Jaden Yates (Out), WR Muizz Tounkara (Out), OL Demetris Dean II (Out), DL De’Marion Thomas (Out), DB Alvin Williamson Jr. (Doubtful), DB Jalen Mayon (Questionable), DB JD Rhym (Probable), DL Ejiro Egodogbare (Probable)

Oklahoma State vs. Houston Betting Trends

– The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread this year, including 1-1 on the road.

– Oklahoma is 2-0 against the spread when the underdog, winning both games outright.

– Three of the five games for Oklahoma State have seen the over hit, including two straight.

– Houston is 3-3 against the spread this year, but just 1-3 when a favorite.

– The Cougars are 1-2 against the spread at home.

– The over has hit in four of the six games for Houston, but the under has hit in two straight.

Keys to Oklahoma State vs. Houston matchup

For Oklahoma State, it will start with Drew Mestemaker. Mestemaker leads the fourth-ranked passing offense in the nation, while the team is seventh in yards per game and 29th in points per game. He has been phenomenal this year, completing 114 of 169 passes for 1,575 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also has two running touchdowns. Mestemaker has been intercepted five times this year, but has thrown just one pick in the last three games while tossing five touchdowns. The quarterback has also been protected well, with just four sacks this year. Houston has not been great at getting to quarterbacks, and if Oklahoma State can keep the pocket clean, they will be able to move the ball.

On defense, the Cowboys have to contain the perimeter. The Will Fritz offense at Houston relies heavily on the zone-read game with plenty of sweeps and outside pitches. Re’Shaun Sanford II leads the Houston backfield with 404 yards on 75 carries with two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Makhi Hughes has run the ball 80 times for 387 yards and three scores. Still, containing the perimeter goes beyond the running backs. Quarterback Connor Weigman is great at breaking containment, running for 177 yards and six touchdowns this year.

For Houston, they have to keep the chains moving. Oklahoma State is one of the more explosive offensive units in the nation, and to keep up, Houston cannot have empty possessions. They are first in the nation in third-down conversions. Beyond a solid running game, Conner Wieman has been great in the short and intermediate passing game. He is 110 for 165 passing this year, for 1,428 yards and 15 touchdowns. He has also been intercepted just once. Safeties for Oklahoma State cannot get sucked into stopping the run, as tight end Patrick Overmyer has been great. He has 33 receptions for 400 yards and six touchdowns. Still, the Cougars are 92nd in red zone scoring this year, something that needs to change if they are going to win.

On defense, the Cougars need to find a way into the backfield. Ashton Porter and Khalil Laufau both have two sacks this year, but this is more than just getting pressure on Mestemaker. If Caleb Hawkins gets going out of the backfield, it will be a long day for the Houston defense. He has run for 524 yards on 106 carries this year while scoring twice. If the run game gets going, that will give more time for Mestemaker, who has been great at finding guys in space, leading to yards after the catch.

Oklahoma State vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

Houston has the best run defense in the Big 12 this year, and while Oklahoma State does run the ball well, their offense is focused on quick passes and a rhythm-based passing game. There is nothing Houston has done this year to show that they can stop that passing attack. They are 14th in the conference in pass defense, and one of the worst at getting to the quarterback. When Mestemaker has had a clean pocket this year, he has been nearly perfect. Meanwhile, Houston has to control the clock and tempo of the game. If they cannot keep the Oklahoma State offense on the sideline, they do not have the firepower to keep up in this one.

Final Oklahoma State vs. Houston Prediction and Pick: Oklahoma State +4.5 (-110) and Over 62.5 (-110)

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