One of the most interesting spectacles of a weekend filled with top 25 matchups is #22 LSU (4-2) hosting #16 Mississippi State (4-1). Both SEC squads are coming off losses. LSU lost at Kentucky in OT, 35-34, while Mississippi State had a bye week in-between their 56-23 blowout loss to Alabama. LSU opens as a heavy -14.5 point favorite with a game total of 56.5. Oddsmakers are pricing this is as the start of an LSU push the playoffs, but also priced in is a key injury. Mississippi State's star quarterback Kamari Taylor is questionable after a late lower-body injury against Alabama, and starting running back Fluff Bothwell is questionable too.

Under Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State has struggled following a bye week. Last year, Mississippi State lost to Florida (23-21), Ole Miss (38-19) and Wake Forest (43-29) off bye weeks. In 2024, Mississippi State lost to Georgia (41-31) and Missouri (39-20) following the break. That's an 0-5 record and 36.8 points per game allowed.

Following a 56-23 loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs focus needs to be laser thin at LSU. Kamario Taylor has three or more touchdowns in five-straight games, but has also taken three or more sacks in three consecutive games as the line has struggled. The Bulldogs rank 114th in pass blocking protection grades and run blocking grades. That will be put to the test against Princewill Umanmielen and the LSU front seven. If the Bulldogs are rolling out a backup quarterback, then it might be curtains for Mississippi State. Parker 'Billy' Puckett and veteran AJ Swann are co-backups. Puckett has 14 career passes and Swann has 18 career starts at Vanderbilt and Appalachian State.

LSU cannot afford another loss if they want to make the College Football Playoff, and that's likely based into the betting odds. The Tigers will have to win in style and put up a ton of points to impress the committee similar to Notre Dame last year, but unlike the Irish, the Tigers have the liberty of playing a loaded SEC schedule.

After dropping an OT contest at Kentucky (35-34) due to the lack of aggressiveness from Lane Kiffin, I'd expect LSU to come out swinging. Following the loss to Ole Miss, LSU destroyed Texas A&M 35-6 and outgained the Aggies 506-197 in yards. LSU couldn't get the running game going with 2.6 yards per carry at Kentucky, but Sam Leavitt was able to cross the 300-yard mark and combine for three touchdowns. Leavitt has 17 total touchdowns (10 pass, 7 rush) on the season to nine turnovers (8 INT, 1 FUM).

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Mississippi State vs LSU

  • Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
  • Time: 12:00 PM Eastern
  • Site: Tiger Stadium
  • City: Baton Rouge, LA
  • TV/Streaming: ESPN | Disney+

Game Odds for Mississippi State vs LSU

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: LSU Tigers (-600), Mississippi State Bulldogs (+440)
  • Spread: LSU -14.5
  • Total: 56.5 points

#22 LSU Tigers

Head Coach: Lane Kiffin
2026 Record: 4-2 (1-2)
Offensive Points Per Game: 42.0 (9th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 18.5 (32nd)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 30th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 3rd

The LSU Tigers Offense:

The LSU offense should be fun on Saturday night. The last time LSU and Lane Kiffin came off a loss, the Tigers routed Texas A&M in Death Valley 35-6 and put up 506 yards of offense and had 20 first downs. LSU has its back against the wall to make the playoffs, so we could see Kiffin and company run up the score whenever possible the rest of the season. The Tigers are ranked fourth in PFF's passing grades and the offense is 31st overall. LSU barely outgained Kentucky in yards 410-401, but lost the turnover battle 2-0; both via Sam Leavitt.

LSU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Sam Leavitt

Sam Leavitt has now tossed an interception in six-straight games since arriving at LSU, but has 17 total touchdowns (10 pass, 7 rush) and over 1,700 total yards. Levitt has big-play ability any given play for the offense or defense. He's helped spearhead LSU to a complete turnaround offensively. LSU ranks 10th nationally in third down offense (52.2%), eighth in passing yards (311.2), and fourth in yards (524.8). Over the last three games, he's steadily posted a 73 completion percentage or better and has thrown for at least two touchdowns in all three games.

The LSU Tigers Defense:

The LSU defense ranks 10th in pressure per PFF and 13th in tackling, which is night and day from last year. However, the Tigers had their worst outing of the season at Kentucky. LSU earned one sack and three TFL with no turnovers forced. Kentucky ran for 4.8 yards per pop and 155 yards overall with three of their four touchdowns coming on the ground. The LSU special teams also faltered with a 55-yard punt return allowed a for touchdown. The Tigers held Texas A&M to 196 total yards of offense the last time LSU lost or allowed 30-plus points. Mississippi State had a bye week to plan for two to attack this LSU defense and the Kentucky tape should help.

LSU Player to Watch on Defense: EDGE Princewill Umanmielen

Princewill Umanmielen ranks second in the country with eight sacks and is coming off his first game without one. Umanmielen started the season with two sacks against Clemson and three versus Louisiana Tech to put everyone on notice. He is up to 11 TFL on the season already and is one sack away from his career high of 9.0 that he set with Ole Miss last year. Everyone was hyped about Leavitt, but Umanmielen was Kiffin's most talented addition to this LSU roster.

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#16 Mississippi State Bulldogs

Head Coach: Jeff Lebby
2026 Record: 4-1 (2-1)
Offensive Points Per Game: 39.0 (20th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 28.0 (T-108th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 8th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 17th

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Offense:

Mississippi State had a season-low 302 yards of offense against Alabama in their last outing and turned the ball over four times. Kamario Taylor accounted for three of the four turnovers (2 INT, 1 FUM) and the Bulldogs were limited to 18 rushing yards on 30 carries (0.6 ypc). One area that Mississippi State has excelled in and did against Alabama is third downs. The Bulldogs rank 28th nationally with a 47.6% conversion rate and went 7-of-17 (41.7%) versus the Tide. LSU's defense ranks 10th nationally in third down defense (27.6%). If their doesn't work, the Bulldogs aren't afraid of fourth downs. They are 5-of-6 on the season. That number could double in this game because Mississippi State will have to match LSU's aggressiveness and we can expect the Tigers to push the tempo.

Mississippi State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Kamario Taylor

Kamario Taylor is questionable for this game after sustaining an injury late against Alabama. Taylor's riding a five-game streak with three-plus total touchdowns and he'll have a tough matchup to keep that streak alive. The 23 points scored against Alabama was a season-low for Mississippi State, but in their two road games, the Bulldogs have scored 38 and 41. Taylor had two of his best three games this season on the road at Minnesota (313 yards, 3 TDs) and at South Carolina (284 yards, 4 TDs).

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Defense:

Mississippi State allowed 483 yards to Alabama, a season-high 56 points, and lost the turnover battle 4-2. Outside of the two earned turnovers from the defense, the Bulldogs grabbed four sacks against Alabama. The LSU offense is rated 61st in pass blocking grades and 83rd in run blocking grades, so if the Bulldogs can create pressure, there's an avenue to slowing down Leavitt. Unfortunately, Mississippi State ranks 134th out of 138 teams when it comes to creating pressure even after sacking the Tide four times. This is a bad matchup for the Bulldogs defense, hence why they are +14.5 point underdogs and LSU's Team Total is 35.5.

Mississippi State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Tyler Lockhart

With Jalen Smith listed out for a second-straight game, the linebacking responsibility for Tyler Lockhart grows. Lockhart has back-to-back games with a half-sack and recorded nine tackles versus Missouri and five against Alabama. Lockhart leads Mississippi State in tackles with 31 and sacks at 2.0, plus another 2.5 TFL in his sophomore season.

LSU and Mississippi State Stats, Betting Trends

  • LSU is 2-4 ATS and 4-2 to the Over
  • Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS and 3-2 to the Over
  • LSU is 3-1 to the Over at home and 2-2 ATS
  • Mississippi State is 2-0 ATS on the road and 1-1 on the total
  • The Bulldogs are 3-4 ATS following a loss and 4-3 to the Over since the start of 2025
  • The Tigers are 0-1 ATS off a loss this season
  • The Tigers are 3-7 ATS since the start of 2024, ranking 12th-worst
  • The Bulldogs are 3-2 to the Over and 2-3 ATS off a bye week with Jeff Lebby
  • The Bulldogs are an NCAA-worst 0-5 on the ML with Jeff Lebby coming off a bye week
  • LSU has won three-straight versus Mississippi State and five of the last six
  • The score has totaled 46 or fewer points in three of the past four meetings in Baton Rouge

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Over 56.5 Points if Kamario Taylor plays:

"One thing about both of these teams is that they can score in bunches. We have Mississippi State coming off a bye week that followed a 56-23 blowout loss at home versus Alabama. With Jeff Lebby as the head coach, the Bulldogs are 0-5 after a bye week, but 3-2 to the Over. With Kamario Taylor being routed on national television to ruin his Heisman resume, I'd expect a slew of points from the Bulldogs if he plays. On the other side, you have LSU who is coming off a 35-34 OT loss at Kentucky where Lane Kiffin was not aggressive enough. Sam Leavitt and this LSU offense will probably be in a flow state from the beginning. LSU pummeled Texas A&M 35-6 following its loss at Ole Miss. I'd expect another 30-point outing from LSU here and with two losses, Kiffin and the Tigers need to win in style. I like the Over 56.5 if Taylor is starting at QB for the Bulldogs."

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Source: Yahoo Sports