Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 8: High on the Cowboys.

The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.

Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.

For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.

For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.

Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Bowl Affiliation Key

Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ

Hawaii Bowl: MW #2

Arizona Bowl: MW #3

New Mexico Bowl: MW #4

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup

Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl

Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ

Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4

Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams

ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl

College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team

Mike

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: UNLV

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wyoming

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl:

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

This week, I added Wyoming and dropped San Jose State, which is a better reflection of where the two programs are at following the past two weeks. NDSU and Air Force stay the same despite the losses, mainly because no other team showed they should be jumped in the ranking order. Nothing changes for me in the Pac-12, although Colorado State was considered following their win. San Diego State drops further out as they look all out of sorts.

Zach

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

New Mexico takes the top spot in the Mountain West this week. I expect them to get a better bowl opportunity against a P4 team, but it is hard to pinpoint where that will take place. I think Boise State and Oregon State are the top G6 teams, with New Mexico a close third. But New Mexico might get the nod if Boise State drops a game.

Jeff

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: Wyoming

Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State

New Mexico Bowl: UNLV

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

I’m a believer in the Lobos. I think they may run the table. Wyoming looks like they believe and are playing better. Air Force is steady, while San Jose State is a train wreck. In the Pac-12, it’s Boise State until it’s not. The matchup with Oregon State will be exciting. If both teams lose, New Mexico moves into the G6 playoff spot. Texas State may now have an offense and defense and if so, watch out.

Dan

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Winners of the Week: Lobos! Marquee win of the season for Jason Eck and UNM in an Albuquerque atmosphere that is not a common sight for that program. They have to stay the course, but they could give Boise State a run for CFP convos. Losers of the Week: San Diego State-In a slog of a season for the Aztecs, SDSU turned their offense around and put up a stunning 49 points. Just their second time this season crossing the 30 point mark against an FBS team….they would still lose to Colorado State, allowing 56 POINTS. Ouch.