College Football Picks, Predictions: Week 9 Expert Bets for Florida vs Georgia, Ohio State vs USC, More

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Week 9 of the college football season is already upon us. We have a number of intriguing matchups this week, and it all starts on Friday night.

To kick off my Week 9 betting card, I’m looking toward a Big 12 battle between the Baylor Bears — who just fired their head coach — and the UCF Knights, who just pulled off their first-ever upset over a top-five team.

On Saturday, we’ll begin in Iowa City, where the Iowa Hawkeyes will look to bounce back in a trophy game against the No. 25 Wisconsin Badgers.

Then, in the SEC, the No. 17 Florida Gators meet the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Atlanta.

Finally, to close it all out, we’ll take a look at a Big Ten tilt between the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes and USC Trojans.

With so much to get to, let’s dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Week 9 games on Saturday, October 31.

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College Football Picks, Predictions

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Week 9’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Baylor has fired head coach Dave Aranda, a move made after a critical loss to Kansas in Week 8. The former LSU defensive coordinator leaves Waco with a 40-40 overall mark, not good enough for the current administration.

Former athletic director Mack Rhoades took a separation agreement in November 2025, leaving Aranda’s future in doubt under new athletic director Doug McNamee.

Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, recently brought in from Kansas State, will serve as the interim coach as Baylor looks to reach bowl season.

The Baylor defense was never the issue this season, allowing an average of 16.1 points per game. The offense, under transfer quarterback DJ Lagway, has severely struggled with coordinator Jake Spavital.

The Bears sit outside the top 110 in Success Rate on offense, relying on pass explosives as the only means of creating scoring opportunities.

Despite the struggles as a whole, Lagway has seen improvement from his days at Florida with an increase in big-time throws and a lower turnover-worthy play rate.

The Bears struggle in scoring position, averaging just 3.3 points on 50 offensive possessions inside the opponent’s 40-yard line.

Red-zone efficiency has been a constant failure all season, ranking 121st in touchdown percentage. Only half of the 30 possessions that made it into the red zone have resulted in a Baylor touchdown.

UCF had one of the more advantageous spots of the entire college football calendar when hosting BYU, as the Cougars were coming off a program-defining win over Notre Dame.

The overtime game provided all the thrills for a college football masterpiece, as the Knights took a field-storming victory with an 89% post-game win expectancy.

Backup quarterback Keyone Jenkins led UCF to four methodical drives and an explosive passing attack, tossing six explosives through the air.

The defense had the assignment of slowing down Heisman hopeful Bear Bachmeier, and it limited the BYU quarterback to just 37 rushing yards on 15 carries.

The biggest factor was basic fundamentals, as the Knights missed just nine tackles in the game to add on a PFF tackling grade that ranks in the top 25.

The Cougars’ high-octane offense was limited to just a single rush explosive. It makes sense considering UCF’s defense ranks 15th in Line Yards and top-40 in Rush EPA allowed.

The handicap on this game forces handicappers to look beyond the advanced statistics, as the Baylor program is in flux.

Klanderman isn’t expected to win the job as Baylor’s head coach, as McNamee has made it clear a coach with Texas roots and an offensive mindset will be the next hire.

The downstream effect of the coaching search could create outside noise for coordinators and players looking for their next stop if they don’t make a bowl game.

Statistically, Baylor could have a hard time generating points against the UCF defense.

The Bears have generated plenty of available yards to create scoring opportunities, but a rank outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives will go against a Knights defense that’s 32nd in limiting opponents in scoring position.

With the expectation that UCF will have a hangover from one of the most electric college football games of the season, a first-half under is the look from a statistical and spot perspective.

There are also advantages for UCF in the run game against the Baylor defense. The Bears have a top-10 unit in terms of Rushing Success Rate allowed but have a mid-FBS average of 50% against teams that use inside zone.

The Knights run a heavy amount of inside zone through Jenkins and running back Duke Watson.

A boost could be in store if quarterback Alonza Barnett III returns from a hamstring injury. The James Madison transfer suited up for the BYU game but did not play for the fifth straight game.

Any contribution from Barnett would further solidify UCF’s position.

Pick: 1H Under 24.5 · UCF ML (-110 or Better)

Florida entered the bye week on a high note, beating a top-10 team on the road for the first time since 2012.

The Gators remain at two losses on the season in the thick of the SEC race and a potential spot in the College Football Playoff, but a date with Georgia in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party comes first.

The biggest takeaway from the victory over Texas came from backup quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. tossing a couple of touchdowns in a mistake-free game.

The sophomore completed 22-of-35 passes while chipping in 50 rushing yards with an even split of scrambles and designed run calls.

On the other side, the defense continues to rank as one of the best in the nation when creating chaos. The top-10 Havoc numbers are led by 53 tackles for loss, nine forced fumbles and 34 passes defensed.

Five players on the defensive line have generated double-digit pressures, while seven different defenders have multiple pass breakups.

The issue with Florida’s defense is its performance close to the goal line, ranking 95th in red-zone defense. The Gators have allowed 40 opponent possessions to cross the 40-yard line and are giving up an average of 4.4 points per trip .

Georgia’s first loss to Auburn in nine years comes as a result of ball protection. Quarterback Gunner Stockton was responsible for two interceptions and a fumble, an uncharacteristic set of events for the senior.

Up until the Alabama game in Week 6, Stockton managed to throw just six interceptions and lose three fumbles since the beginning of the 2025 season.

In the past two games, the Georgia quarterback has committed two fumbles and three interceptions .

There’s the case that Stockton had too much of the load against Auburn, taking a critical hit in the first series of the game.

Running back Chauncey Bowens has missed multiple games with injury, while Nate Frazier was ineffective coming off a rib injury, finishing with less than 20 rushing yards.

The bye week should provide the best health for the offense in weeks, as head coach Kirby Smart described Bowens as day-to-day. Stockton should also be fully recovered from any shoulder or concussion symptoms.

The Bulldogs defense continues to be one of the best nationally in defending the run, ranking top-25 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.

Georgia grades out as one of the best tackling teams nationally, as no individual player has missed more than five tackles this season .

Cornerback Ellis Robinson IV has been one of the best at shutting down wideouts all season with five pass breakups and an interception.

Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann has been excellent in disguising blitzes this season, as the highest tally of pressures this season comes from linebackers Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson.

The Gators have struggled to run the ball of late, posting a Stuff Rate above the national average in the last three SEC contests against Texas, South Carolina and Missouri.

Florida has three primary run concepts in the arsenal: outside zone, counter and power.

The most successful and explosive of the group comes from power attempts with a heavy box, led by running back Jadan Baugh. The junior has 100 more rushing attempts than any other player on the team, running an even split of zone read and non-zone read concepts.

Despite the highly successful numbers against zone read and counter, Georgia has been horrific against power concepts this season .

The Bulldogs have elite numbers in Defensive Finishing Drives and red-zone prevention, ranking fifth in red-zone drives allowed. Although only 15 drives have passed the Georgia 20, the Bulldogs have allowed 14 scores, with 11 of the 15 drives resulting in a touchdown .

On the other side of the ball, Georgia has been a pure zone-read team with a heavy batch of inside zone with 11 and 12 personnel.

Nearly every run concept from the Bulldogs comes in well above the national average in Success Rate and EPA, but inside and outside zone read produce an explosive on one of every five attempts.

Florida has been successful against outside zone but has yet to see an offense execute with two-tight end sets.

Georgia should thrive in passing downs, as the Gators sit outside the top 90 in Success Rate and EPA allowed when opponents are off schedule .

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Georgia to be favored by 10, giving Florida a slight edge in the spread department. Any number at 13 or better will generate Gators tickets, while any dip below 11 is sure to see steam on the Bulldogs.

The better wager comes on the over for a number of reasons.

Florida has been putrid at keeping opponents out of scoring position and the end zone this season. On the other side, Georgia defense has been dominated by power run concepts, so Baugh should find a way to put Florida on the board.

Jones is also an X-factor, as offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner will have an expanded playbook for the sophomore and starter Aaron Philo.

Picks: Over 55.5 (-120 or Better) · Jadan Baugh Anytime TD (-180)

Ohio State narrowly escaped Bloomington with a win over Indiana before entering a bye week, but the headline is the loss of quarterback Julian Sayin.

Head coach Ryan Day indicated that the quarterback position has been reset, with Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair splitting reps during practice. Fahey profiled as a three-star recruit from California, taking the majority of reps at practice this week.

True freshman Fahey does have 16 dropbacks this season, completing 9-of-14 passes, including an interception against both Ball State and Kent State.

St. Clair is a redshirt freshman who also saw time against the MAC schools, tossing an interception against the Golden Flashes.

There’s an expectation that both quarterbacks will play depending on the game situation.

Inside reporters have noted that the coaching staff is tailoring the playbook around the quarterbacks, with truncated route concepts and quick-out passing .

For the public viewing portion of practice, there was an influx of tunnel screens, rollouts and bootlegs.

Ohio State will need its passing attack to show up because USC’s defense has been much more successful against the run than the pass.

Desperation is the word around the USC program as it heads into one of the biggest conference games of the year.

The Trojans have quickly fallen out of College Football Playoff contention after a Week 8 loss at Wisconsin, a 17-point drubbing that featured negative rushing yards on 25 attempts.

Head coach Lincoln Riley is firmly on the hot seat with rumors of a buyout to Baylor or any other potential vacant spots in the Power 4.

The offense was plagued by poor offensive line play not just on rushing attempts, but also by allowing 13 pressures on quarterback Jayden Maiava.

The senior is set to reach a career high in sacks for a season, currently at eight, down from 11 last year .

There has been no assistance in the running game of late, as USC has fallen to 127th in Rush EPA and outside the top 100 in Stuff Rate.

The defense continued to show poor execution in defending the red zone and tackling fundamentals against Wisconsin.

Coordinator Gary Patterson has been unable to get his aggressive brand to translate into Havoc, ranking 118th among FBS teams in creating chaos.

Although the rush defense has been better than the pass unit, USC sits outside the top 50 in Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate against opposing runners.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings would have Ohio State favored by 12.5 if Sayin were active. The market has indicated a 6-point drop in the absence of the former Heisman hopeful.

The uncertainty around the offense exists not only in production but also in which quarterback will be under center.

However, there’s an expectation that an increase in pass receptions could come with the receiving crew, given that the short passing game remains in scope.

If there’s a target for the Buckeyes who has seen an increase in targets over the past two games, plays in the slot and has been a part of the screen and play-action calls, it’s Brandon Inniss.

The expected short passing game should favor the senior who has lined up in the slot on 83% of snaps for Ohio State.

On the other side of the ball, Maiava may get a reprieve from pressures and sacks. The Buckeyes have a mid-FBS rank in producing a pass rush, generating just two sacks against Indiana.

Maiava has been fantastic in a clean pocket with 19 touchdowns and a turnover-worthy play rate under 1%.

The Trojans rank 18th in Havoc allowed, so Ohio State’s tackles for loss and pressures should be limited under the Buckeyes’ average for the season.

USC also owns a big advantage on third downs against the Buckeyes, so scoring opportunities will be available for the Trojans.

Pick: USC Team Total Over 21.5 · Brandon Inniss Over 2.5 Receptions

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