Josh Pate makes surprising Ohio State College Football Playoff admission

Ohio State is 6-1, 4-0 in the Big Ten, ranked No. 3 and coming off a 19-15 win at Indiana last Saturday that snapped the Hoosiers’ 22-game winning streak. Its only loss came at Texas in Week 2, a result that has aged poorly since the Longhorns lost back-to-back games to unranked Oklahoma and Florida. On Friday’s Bussin’ & Pate, Josh Pate looked at what the Buckeyes have left and came away with a view of their playoff chances that cuts against that resume.

“Man, I’m on the bus with it,” Pate said when the conversation turned to the possibility of Ohio State missing the College Football Playoff.

“If they were churning out yards in the run game, and frankly this is a problem for a lot of teams with high-profile quarterbacks with high expectations and highly paid rosters, if Bo Jackson or Legend Bey was the equivalent of Zeke back in the day, I’d be okay. They haven’t been that yet,” Pate said.

“Man, I’m on the bus with it.”

@JoshPateCFB is on board with the possibility of Ohio State missing the CFP

(via @BussinWTB) https://t.co/Q6jpANRqIN

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 23, 2026

Do the numbers back up Pate’s run-game concern?

Through six games, Ohio State averaged 165.7 rushing yards per game, 60th nationally and sixth in the Big Ten, while scoring 42.7 points per game, seventh in the country. The Buckeyes had not produced a run of 20 yards or more since their Week 1 win over Ball State as of mid-October. At Indiana, they netted 78 rushing yards, and Jackson led them with 56 yards on 18 carries.

Julian Sayin, the quarterback behind that scoring, injured his elbow in the second half at Indiana, and Ryan Day said Tuesday the program is planning to be without him for the rest of the regular season and possibly the Big Ten Championship Game and the playoff.

True freshman Luke Fahey, a three-star recruit from Mission Viejo, California, replaced him and threw two incompletions. An offense scoring at a top-10 clip while running at a middle-of-the-pack rate was getting its points through the air, and the run-game problem Pate described now has to be solved in front of a freshman with no college completions.

“Here’s the problem: at USC, Oregon (maybe with Dante Moore back), Northwestern, at Nebraska, Michigan,” Pate said.

Ohio State is off this week before visiting USC on Oct. 31. It then hosts Oregon on Nov. 7 and Northwestern on Nov. 14, travels to Nebraska on Nov. 21 and closes with Michigan on Nov. 28. All five of those opponents are 4-2 or better, which leaves no obvious week for a new quarterback to settle in.

“There’s no stretch of three games there where you look and say ‘that’s where they’ll get right,'” Pate added.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, whom Pate mentioned, suffered a concussion against USC on Sept. 26 and was ruled out of the Ducks’ game against UCLA, which is why his availability for the Nov. 7 trip to Columbus is part of the calculation.

Through six games, Ohio State allowed 246.8 yards per game, fifth nationally, and it held Indiana to 73 rushing yards last Saturday. That defense is the reason the Buckeyes left Bloomington with a win on a day their offense ran for 78 yards.

The question Pate is raising is how many times that formula can hold up across five straight games against winning teams, with a freshman taking the snaps and a run game still waiting on its breakout.

Ohio State has already used its one loss, and every Saturday from Halloween through Thanksgiving weekend now brings a team with a winning record.

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