Iowa Hawkeyes Football: Minnesota Golden Gophers Game Preview

This Saturday, the Iowa Hawkeyes travel to Dinkytown to play the Minnesota Golden Gophers for the Battle for Floyd of Rosedale.

Minnesota is looking to get its season back on track after an horrendous loss to Purdue preceding the bye week.

Iowa, meanwhile, is solidly in the mix for a playoff spot. According to Fanduel, Iowa is +290 to make the Playoffs. Not quite the -2000 of Miami, but the Hawkeyes still have the 19th best odds to make it, the fourth best in the Big Ten.

Until the win against Washington, until surviving what seemed like a gauntlet of the first three games of the Big Ten schedule, the playoffs seemed like a pipe dream. Now, they seem very much in reach.

The problem is, with Iowa’s schedule, there is very little chance for another marquee win, and almost any loss will look ugly. Therefore, the Hawks probably have to go 11-1 to make it; one win, and they’re out.

So, for Iowa fans’ sake, the Road to the Playoffs starts for real this Saturday.

3 Questions

Which Iowa, and/or Minnesota, will show up to this matchup?

Minnesota came into the season as a dark-horse contender to get to the Big Ten championship or at least to act as a spoiler. Then the Gophers got embarrassed by Mississippi State in their first real action of the season though it turned out that MSU might be good. Or it seemed that way until recently getting clobbered by Bama and LSU.

The Gophers proceeded to beat Washington and Michigan, the latter being the greatest football day of Minnesota coach PJ Fleck’s life. Unfortunately, that was followed by the Gophers getting throttled by Purdue. At that point, it seemed Purdue might not be as bad as it has been for a number of years except the Boilers came right back to lose to…Washington.

Then there’s Iowa. Iowa’s only loss is to Ohio State, one of the best teams in the country, so the overall state of the Hawkeyes is not quite as unclear as that of the Gophers.

But what is unclear is Iowa’s running game. The Hawkeyes ran all over overmatched opponents, but Iowa State, Michigan and Ohio State stifled the Hawks’ running game. Two of those three were still wins, but it was evident the Iowa offense would be limited if it couldn’t get the running game going, and a limited offense meant a hard ceiling on Iowa’s season.

Then the Hawkeyes traveled to…Washington…and made them look like the equivalents of Northern Illinois putting 263 yards on the ground against the Huskies.

So the question is who are the Gophers, the team that let Purdue rush for 305 yards or the team that held Michigan to 79 yards rushing? And, for that matter, who is Iowa? The team that squeaked out 58 rushing yards against Michigan or the team that hung 263 yards on the Huskies?

Whichever of these shows up will determine the winner of this game.

Will the Hawkeyes or Gophers win the battle of the trenches?

Kirk Ferentz and PJ Fleck couldn’t have more different temperaments and personalities. Ferentz is steady, taciturn and even-tempered. Fleck is excitable, bombastic and prone to hyperbole. But, interestingly, they both approach football similarly. Both recognize that the goal is to control the line of scrimmage.

That seems like an obvious statement, but consider what Scott Dochterman and Marc Morehouse used to say about the old Big Ten West (+ Michigan State). They often compared it to an iceberg with the teams as polar bears competing for a place on that iceberg. This wasn’t Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State. The polar bears in this scenario were Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan State and the rest of those middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams that largely had the same philosophy, competed for the same recruits and competed for the chance to compete against OSU, UM and PSU.

Well, the Big Ten West is no longer, and most of the programs competing for that iceberg have forgotten priority No. 1 in the Big Ten: winning in the trenches. But Iowa and Minnesota are still fully in the trench-warfare mentality.

Iowa is currently the No. 7 rush defense in the country (yards-per-carry allowed). Minnesota is 67. Even though we know that rushing offense is a deceptive number as it concerns Iowa, the Hawkeyes are also seventh in the country in YPC. Minnesota, meanwhile, is 120th. Sacks allowed: Iowa tied for 10th, Minnesota is 9th. Lastly, Iowa is tied for 8th most sacks while Minnesota is tied for 43rd.

If these trenches are icebergs and these two teams are polar bears, based on recent history, I like Iowa’s chances here.

Brown OR Hecklinski?

A quick recap: the season started with the depth chart listing the starting quarterback as Hank Brown OR Jeremy Hecklinski. And it officially stayed that way through the third game of the season. However, Hank Brown played every meaningful snap, including every snap against Iowa State, and Hecklinski, in his limited appearances, didn’t look very good. The “OR” disappeared ahead of the Big Ten season then Brown got hurt against OSU, Hecklinski started and had a good game–against lousy competition–vs Washington and now the “OR” is back, but Kirk Ferentz has said that Hecklinski will start.

I think this is going to be the same as the Iowa State game. Brown will come in if Hecklinski struggles or if Iowa takes a huge lead over Minnesota.

And here’s the question for Hecklinski: I have made my feelings clear about Washington. They were soft and looked unprepared, and Hecklinski did what he was supposed to do against them, but the Huskies made it easy on him and the Hawkeyes generally. Can Hecklinski perform as well against a good pass defense with a really strong pass rush? Can he perform as consistently against an opponent that will show up because, however all-over-the-place the Gophers have been this season, PJ gets his teams up for these rivalry games.

2 Things to Watch

The Iowa Pass Defense vs Drake Lindsey

You know what Iowa hasn’t been especially good at? Pass defense. The Hawkeyes currently rank 71st in the country in team passing efficiency defense. They’re 68th in the country in passing yards allowed. Lastly, the Doughboy$ are tied for 72nd in the country with only four interceptions. And those numbers are highly padded by the NIU and UNI games. Iowa is giving up over 300 yards passing-per-game against Big Ten opponents.

You could blame the secondary which has not played well, but it’s a team defense. As noted, Iowa is getting its sacks—19—but only 10 of them, or 52.6%, have come from the defensive line. We’re all Iowa fans here, and we know how much DC Phil Parker hates to blitz, but he has done so liberally this season, out of necessity.

There are the linebackers which have been great in run fits and getting to the quarterback, but their pass drops haven’t been especially notable.

Finally, there is the secondary. Safety Zach Lutmer has been dealing with injuries and started the year on a bad foot in the ISU game. He has been playing better but not the all-Big Ten level that was expected. Three different players have manned the other safety position. Cornerback Jaylen Watson, in his first year starting, has been picked on as has first-year starting cash Jacob Wallace. In fact, Iowa has been playing three linebackers more than in recent years thereby leaving Wallace off the field. The only member of the secondary who is playing at the typical Iowa defensive-back level is senior cornerback Deshaun Lee.

Here’s the thing: Minnesota has been having a lot of trouble rushing this year, and Iowa, as usual, specializes in stopping the run. In all likelihood, unless Minnesota had a rushing renaissance over the bye week, its best chance to move the ball is through the air, and the Gophers have (some of) the players to do it. They have a solid receiving corps led by Javon Tracy—Tyrone’s brother—and an offensive line that has protected its quarterback.

They also have a solid quarterback in second-year starter Drake Lindsey. However, he has been prone to mistakes this season having thrown four interceptions so far, two short of the six he threw all of last year.

If Minnesota comes out passing, can the Hawkeyes stop them? And if the Hawkeyes stop the Gophers early, can Minnesota move the ball through the air when it has no other options?

Getting off to a fast start

Speaking of which, here is what it all comes down to. Minnesota doesn’t have a great rush defense, but Iowa has a potentially great rushing offense. On the other side of the ball, Iowa has a great rush defense, but Minnesota has a lousy rushing offense.

If Iowa can establish a strong running game, and score early and often; and if Iowa can keep Minnesota from running the ball and force them into being a one-dimensional offense; then the quarterback will barely matter. Minnesota’s really good rushing ends will barely matter. Even the special teams and the game outside the margins will barely matter because Iowa should be able to control the game.

These are “ifs” but they are realistic “ifs”, and we’ll know if these “ifs” have come to fruition by the end of the first quarter.

1 Crazy Prediction

Iowa has yet to record two interceptions in a game this year. Drake Lindsey has had some problems in that regard. Iowa gets off to a lead early and Lindsey is forced to pass which leads to Iowa’s first game this year with more than one interception.

Go Hawks!