Colorado State vs Texas State Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Thursday, Oct. 15

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The Colorado State Rams take on the Texas State Bobcats in San Marcos, Texas, on Thursday, Oct. 15. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

Texas State is favored by -14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. Colorado State, meanwhile, enters as a +14 underdog and is +440 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 69.5 total points.

Here’s my Colorado State vs. Texas State prediction and college football pick for Thursday, October 15.

• Colorado State vs. Texas State Pick: Texas State 1H Team Total Over 21.5

My Texas State vs. Colorado State best bet is the over on the Bobcats’ first-half team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Colorado State vs Texas State Odds

• Colorado State vs Texas State Spread: Colorado State +14 (-105), Texas State -14 (-115)
• Colorado State vs Texas State Over/Under: 69.5 (-112o / -108u)
• Colorado State vs Texas State Moneyline: Colorado State +440, Texas State -600

“All gas, no brakes” is a fun way to describe something until that something is an opposing offense.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a defense as bad as this Colorado State unit. Its 7.9 yards allowed per play would be the worst since UConn in 2018, a defense so bad it allowed 49-plus in 10 of its 12 games.

In the middle of its 56-point shelling by Oregon State (and, by extension, a two-game stretch of 115 points allowed), Jim Mora relieved defensive coordinator Tyson Summers of play-calling and fired him shortly after the clock hit 0:00.

With a bye week to settle in, will we see any improvement from Colorado State’s defense?

We’d better, because giving up a 58.3% Success Rate (last), a 61.3% Success Rate on pass plays (also last) and 42.3 points per game is a tough way to win.

To make it harder, starting quarterback Hauss Hejny missed the last two games with a hamstring injury and won’t play this game, either.

K’Saan Farrar was decent in relief duties against UConn (343 yards), but that didn’t translate against Oregon State. Luckily, he gets a Texas State defense near the bottom of passing defense charts this week.

Leading receiver RJ Vick (371 yards, four touchdowns) is also doubtful for this contest.

Two types of bets have been nails in Colorado State games: over game totals (5-0) and over opposing team totals (3-0 in the last three games).

Expect the new defensive play-caller, Kenny McClendon, to simplify the scheme, as Summers’ Saban-style match coverage may have confused the unit.

(As a note, Saban’s coverage is based on if-then rules that get pretty complicated pretty fast. Too much thinking leads to less reacting and coverage breakdowns if it isn’t run with a deep understanding. Summers’ coverage scheme could have been too complicated for its own good, lending blame to the coach and not the players.)

New conference, same Texas State Bobcats. As GJ Kinne’s offense took college football by storm, the expectations surrounding the team grew.

Coming off an 8-5 finish in 2024, expectations were that Texas State would break out in 2025 after a few one-score games didn’t go Kinne’s way (1-4 in one-score regular-season games). So in 2025, Texas State went 7-6 with an 0-4 record in one-score games.

Here Kinne is, off to a 2-3 start in 2026 with two one-score losses under his belt.

At this point, we have enough data to accept that’s what Texas State is right now: a dangerous team with a flawed defense and an inability to finish close games, leading to blown late leads.

Quarterback Brad Jackson remains a dynamic dual-threat signal-caller, racking up over 1,400 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns (plus 98 rushing yards last game).

He has done it without top receiver Beau Sparks, who has struggled with injury throughout the season, and Kylen Evans, who missed a game and left early in Week 5 due to injury.

However, teams are starting to figure out that Jackson is most lethal when he can move, so the trick is keeping him in the pocket and keying on him in the run game. As a result, Jackson has been limited in three of his four FBS games this season.

The defense is still a mess. Kinne made a change at coordinator to Will Windham from South Alabama — a coach who led the Jaguars to the 112th-ranked Points-Per-Drive defense last year — and the Bobcats still rank 109th.

All four FBS foes have scored 30-plus points, putting immense stress on the offense. With a marked lack of pass rush, the pass defense is about as bad as anyone this season, ranking 128th in Passing Success Rate allowed (52.9%).

You might take the teams out of the Pac-12, but you’ll never remove the Pac-12 from the teams.

We have ourselves a good, old-fashioned 70-point over/under for what looks like a shootout in the making, a large adjustment from an absurdly conservative 63.5-point opener. At its peak, this number touched 72.5.

It makes sense given the lack of defense, especially against the pass, from both sides.

Texas State has been a bit careless with the football this season, giving it away 10 times through five games and putting its already-struggling defense in difficult spots.

It creates “flash fry” spots for Texas State, which has given up 21-plus in a single quarter three times already this year (after doing so three times last year, too).

So far this season, Colorado State has been fried right out of the gate.

Against UTSA, it allowed 21 in the first quarter despite scoring two touchdowns on two plays itself. Oregon State also scored 35 in the first half, BYU scored 31 of its 41 in the first half, and even Southern Utah scored 21 of its 24 points in the first half.

We can get Texas State just a hair above 21 first-half points. Kinne has never had a problem scoring early and building leads — it’s been maintaining those leads that’s the issue. So, back to the well with the new coordinator in-house.

We’ll find out if it’s truly just a personnel problem or a scheme problem for CSU’s secondary.

Pick: Texas State 1H Team Total Over 21.5 (Play to 22.5)