College Football Playoff Predictions: Is Missouri Primed for the College Football Playoff?

The Missouri Tigers spent the week hearing how they didn’t belong in the AP Poll Top 25. Then on Saturday, they went out and proved they did. Should they now be considered a playoff team after giving the Florida Gators a beatdown they won’t forget? How did that result and the rest of the matchups from last weekend shape the race to the 12-team tournament?

Our College Football Playoff predictions provide a pathway to the postseason and the ultimate glory.

College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round

• No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Texas
• No. 9 LSU vs. No. 8 Indiana
• No. 11 Missouri vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
• No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 7 Alabama

While the James Madison Dukes turned over the Marshall Thundering Herd in emphatic style, the Boise State Broncos are still the favorite to place the Group of Six within the College Football Playoff. Spencer Danielson’s team has a 53.1% chance of winning the Pac-12, according to PFN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), with a 32.4% chance of reaching the final 12.

After a bye week, the Texas Longhorns remain locked into the fifth spot in our College Football Playoff predictions. Steve Sarkisian’s Arch Manning-led team has earned attention as the number one team in the country, especially after beating the Ohio State Buckeyes earlier in the season, but with just the third-best odds (20.0%) to win the SEC, they might fall short.

Another team unaffected by Week 5 after a bye is the Oregon Ducks, who rebounded from that infamous Week 2 defeat to the Oklahoma State Cowboys by putting Portland State and the USC Trojans to the sword. The Big Ten team has an anxious wait on the health of quarterback Dante Moore, but the performance of Dylan Raiola should see them remain as a playoff contender.

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Our College Football Playoff predictions pit them against the Alabama Crimson Tide, who climbed in our power rankings after an emphatic win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Kalen DeBoer has a good thing going on right now with his Keelon Russell-led offense, and the Crimson Tide has a 91.3% chance to reach the College Football Playoff after their Week 5 win.

It might be considered controversial to see the Indiana Hoosiers ranked as low as eighth here, especially after beating the brakes off the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Week 5, but their Oct. 17 clash with the Buckeyes could legitimately lower the ceiling of where they’re ranked by the end of the season. A repeat in the Big Ten title game would put them in the lower reaches of the final 12.

College football Week 5 belonged to Missouri. After having their resume doubted all week, Eli Drinkwitz’s team made a statement against the Florida Gators. PFN’s FPM gives them a 33.0% of making the postseason tournament, with a loss to Mississippi State and a gauntlet that includes Texas and Georgia to overcome, but the Tigers proved that they belong in the conversation.

College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 BYU
• Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Indiana
• Cotton Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Miami (FL)
• Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Alabama

The undefeated and so far untested Georgia Bulldogs are the number one team in PFN’s College Football Power Rankings. Alongside their 33.1% chance to win the SEC and 85.9% shot to reach the postseason, Kirby Smart’s team has a 22.2% probability of being the number one seed. The Week 6 clash against the Crimson Tide will provide a litmus test for those aspirations.

According to the PFN FPM, no team in the country has a greater probability of being the number two seed in the College Football Playoff than Ohio State, with Ryan Day’s team given a 22.7% chance. That would come via a Big Ten title, setting up a Rose Bowl clash with the Crimson Tide in our predictions. Could the Alabama defense contain Jeremiah Smith? Can anyone?

The biggest question mark over the Miami Hurricanes entering Week 5 was the strength of the competition they had faced so far in the 2026 season. A below-par Clemson Tigers team might not have provided much in the way of answers, but Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney (and Cooper Barkate and Mark Fletcher Jr.) continue to eviscerate any defense that tries to stop them.

Claiming the final automatic spot in our College Football Playoff predictions is the BYU Cougars. Week 5 wasn’t a classic for Kalani Sitake’s team, but they showed that when they need to get down and dirty, they can, dismantling the TCU Horned Frogs in a rain-soaked Saturday night matchup. They’re not a 33.3% favorite to win the Big 12, with an opportunity to make a regular-season statement when they face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal

• Orange Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Alabama
• Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 5 Texas

While the final score might have been tighter than most would have expected, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish showed they could overcome the elements and still play an elite brand of football.

The CJ Carr to Jordan Faison connection came to life on Saturday afternoon, while the defense can make big plays in the biggest moments. Marcus Freeman’s team should have national title aspirations.

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Texas and Georgia avoid each other in the regular season, but there’s a world where they have at least two encounters during the 2026 campaign.

The Bulldogs currently have the better odds to reach the College Football National Championship Game (25.2% vs. 22.3%), and in our playoff predictions, this Sugar Bowl showdown pits hype (Arch Manning) against performance (Gunner Stockton) when it comes to the quarterback conversation.

College Football Playoff National Championship Game

• No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Georgia

Week by week, the Bulldogs begin to separate themselves from the field in terms of being a legitimate national title contender. Georgia has a 14.3% chance to be crowned college football champions at the end of the year, and while Notre Dame poses a real challenge, there are precious few areas where the Fighting Irish have the personnel advantage over the SEC juggernaut.

This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.