College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 4

With Week 4 of the 2026 college football season in the books, it’s never too early to project how the 12-team playoff will look by December.

The projected field has a couple of significant changes after Week 4. Texas, Georgia and Notre Dame remain the top three projected seeds, but Florida joined the top 10 after Saturday’s 52-28 victory over Ole Miss. Thanks to the Gators’ win, the SEC has six teams projected to make the 12-team field. However, that number is sure to change with several big-time matchups still to come in October and November. BYU was the first team out of the field this week, but it’s a close call between the Cougars and Texas Tech for the projected champion of the Big 12.

Indiana’s shaky 29-23 win over Northwestern on Friday night is enough (for now) to keep coach Curt Cignetti’s team as the projected champion of the Big Ten. However, the gap to Ohio State is small, and Oregon returned to playoff consideration after its win over USC on Saturday night.

Although the season is just four weeks old, the impact of every game isn’t limited to just the top teams. Instead, each contest takes on an increased role due to eight additional spots in the playoff, as well as seeding, and the automatic bids for conference champions.

As a refresher: 12 teams — four champions from the power conferences, the highest-ranked Group of 6 team and seven highest-ranked at-large selections by the selection committee — will receive berths to the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is also locked into the field if it finishes in the top 12 in the selection committee’s final rankings.

The top four highest-ranked teams receive a bye, with the first-round games slated to be played at the home sites of the higher seeds. Beginning with the quarterfinals, all games through the national championship will be played at bowl or neutral sites.

Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2026 After Week 4

With Week 4 completed, Athlon Sports projects the CFP field for 2026:

College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 4

The Projected Field for 2026-27
Ranking All 138 College Football Teams for 2026

1. Texas (Projected SEC Champion)
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Indiana (Projected Big Ten Champion)
5. Ohio State
6. Miami (Projected ACC Champion)
7. Florida
8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss
10. LSU
11. Texas Tech (Projected Big 12 Champion)
12. Boise State (Projected Highest G6 Champion)

Bubble Watch After Week 4
BYU (3-0)
Oregon (3-1)
USC (4-1)
Tennessee (3-1)
Utah (4-0)
Iowa (4-0)
Mississippi State (4-0)
SMU (3-1)
Houston (3-1)
Oklahoma State (3-1)
Virginia Tech (4-0)
Duke (4-0)
UCLA (4-0)
Nebraska (4-0)
Penn State (3-1)
Michigan (3-1)

G6 Playoff Contenders
Projected Conference Champions: Boise State, Memphis, North Dakota State, Liberty, Western Michigan, James Madison
Other G6 Teams in the Mix: New Mexico, UNLV, Fresno State, Navy, Army, UTSA, Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Delaware, Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State, Troy

College Football Playoff First Round

Games to be played on Dec. 18 and Dec. 19. Contests will be played at the home site of the higher-ranked team.

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Miami vs. No. 11 Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 LSU
No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Ole Miss

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Second-round games will be played at bowl sites and will take place on Dec. 30 and Jan. 1.

Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30)
Projection: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Miami

Peach Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Florida

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Ohio State

Cotton Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 1 Texas vs. No. 8 Alabama

College Football Playoff Semifinals

Semifinal games will be played at bowl sites. Matchups are scheduled for Jan. 14-15.

Orange Bowl (Jan. 14)
Projection: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15)
Projection: No. 1 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State

NationalChampionship

Jan. 25, 2027 in Las Vegas, Nev.
Projection: No. 1 Texas vs. No. 2 Georgia

Related: 2026 Bowl Projections After Week 4: Florida Joins Playoff Field, Oregon Rising

Related: College Football Rankings: Athlon Sports Top 25 (After Week 4)

Related: Jeremiah Smith, the Actually ‘Generational’ NFL Draft Prospect

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Sep 28, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.