Tennessee's 2026 record projection, strength of schedule after Week 4

No. 17 Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC) will host Auburn (3-1, 1-1 SEC) on Saturday in Week 5 at Neyland Stadium (3:30 p.m. EDT, ESPN). Rankings reflect the US LBM Coaches Poll.

The Vols' home schedule in 2026 consists of games against Furman (W, 56-9), Kennesaw State (W, 42-9), Texas (L, 20-17), Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky and LSU, while playing at Georgia Tech (W, 45-24), Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.

Below is Tennessee's 2026 football schedule, along with updated game-by-game win percentage chances from ESPN's Matchup Predictor after Week 4. The Vols' updated strength of schedule and record projection are also listed below.

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2026 Week 5 - Tennessee football updated win percentage chances each game

Tennessee football's strength of schedule, record projection after Week 4

Following Week 4, Tennessee is down one spot to No. 11 overall in ESPN's FPI rankings. The Vols are projected to finish their regular season with an 8.0-4.0 record after a 7.3-4.7 preseason record projection.

Tennessee also has a 95.3% chance to win at least six games, 1.3% chance to win the SEC, 22.0% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 1.0% chance to win a national title after Week 4.

Tennessee has the 38th-hardest strength of schedule nationally and the 21st-hardest remaining strength of schedule. The Vols are ranked No. 26 nationally for game control and No. 35 for strength of record. Strength of record rankings reflect a chance that an average top 25 team would have a team's record or better, given the schedule.

More: SEC QBR rankings after Week 4: Arch Manning, Faizon Brandon top 10

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This article originally appeared on Vols Wire: Tennessee's 2026 record projection, strength of schedule after Week 4