College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 5

With Week 5 of the 2026 college football season in the books, it’s never too early to project how the 12-team playoff will look by December.

The projected field has a couple of significant changes after Week 5. Texas, Georgia and Notre Dame remain the top three projected seeds, but Alabama jumps to No. 7 following its road win at Mississippi State. Additionally, Oregon returns to the field as a projected at-large team. Florida tumbled from the 12-team setup following its loss to Missouri. However, the Gators will have a chance to play their way back into the playoff with upcoming matchups against Texas and Georgia.

Although Texas Tech defeated Colorado to move to 5-0, BYU has passed the Red Raiders in Athlon’s projections to be the No. 1 team in the Big 12 at the end of the year. Utah, Houston, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are just a small step behind BYU, with a tight battle expected into the second half of the season.

Although the season is just five weeks old, the impact of every game isn’t limited to just the top teams. Instead, each contest takes on an increased role due to eight additional spots in the playoff, as well as seeding, and the automatic bids for conference champions.

As a refresher: 12 teams — four champions from the power conferences, the highest-ranked Group of 6 team and seven highest-ranked at-large selections by the selection committee — will receive berths to the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is also locked into the field if it finishes in the top 12 in the selection committee’s final rankings.

The top four highest-ranked teams receive a bye, with the first-round games slated to be played at the home sites of the higher seeds. Beginning with the quarterfinals, all games through the national championship will be played at bowl or neutral sites.

Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2026 After Week 5

With Week 5 completed, Athlon Sports projects the CFP field for 2026:

College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 5

The Projected Field for 2026-27
Ranking All 138 College Football Teams for 2026

1. Texas (Projected SEC Champion)
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Indiana (Projected Big Ten Champion)
5. Ohio State
6. Miami (Projected ACC Champion)
7. Alabama
8. Ole Miss
9. LSU
10. Oregon
11. BYU (Projected Big 12 Champion)
12. Boise State (Projected Highest G6 Champion)

Bubble Watch After Week 5
Texas Tech (5-0)
Missouri (4-1)
Florida (4-1)
USC (5-1)
Tennessee (4-1)
Utah (4-0)
Iowa (4-1)
Mississippi State (4-1)
SMU (4-1)
Houston (4-1)
Oklahoma State (3-1)
Pitt (5-0)
Kentucky (4-1)
Duke (4-0)
UCLA (4-0)
Nebraska (5-0)
Northwestern (3-1)

G6 Playoff Contenders
Projected Conference Champions: Boise State, Memphis, North Dakota State, Liberty, Western Michigan, James Madison
Other G6 Teams in the Mix: New Mexico, UNLV, Fresno State, UTSA, Toledo, Delaware, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Troy

College Football Playoff First Round

Games to be played on Dec. 18 and Dec. 19. Contests will be played at the home site of the higher-ranked team.

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Miami vs. No. 11 BYU
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Oregon
No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 LSU

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Second-round games will be played at bowl sites and will take place on Dec. 30 and Jan. 1.

Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30)
Projection: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Miami

Peach Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Alabama

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Ohio State

Cotton Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 1 Texas vs. No. 9 LSU

College Football Playoff Semifinals

Semifinal games will be played at bowl sites. Matchups are scheduled for Jan. 14-15.

Orange Bowl (Jan. 14)
Projection: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15)
Projection: No. 1 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State

NationalChampionship

Jan. 25, 2027 in Las Vegas, Nev.
Projection: No. 1 Texas vs. No. 2 Georgia

Related: 2026 Bowl Projections After Week 5: SEC Chaos Shakes Up Playoff Field

Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2026-27

Related: College Football’s Top 10 Must-See Games of October

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Oct 5, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.