2026 Week 1 Preview: Missouri State Bears @ Texas A&M Aggies

Game notes

• Time and date: Saturday, September 5 at 7:00 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPN
• Location: Kyle Field — College Station, TX
• Spread: Texas A&M (-40.5)
• Over/under: 53.5
• All-time series: No previous meetings

Setting the scene

Missouri State is accustomed to playing in front of a crowd decked in maroon and white, but the Bears will encounter a larger sea of maroon and white than usual Saturday night in College Station. The program kicks off its second year of FBS membership in front of over 100,000 in the intimidating atmosphere of Kyle Field.

The setting presents a daunting debut for Casey Woods, who takes on his first head coaching job after four years as SMU’s offensive coordinator. Woods’ retooled roster will battle a Texas A&M team coming off its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance.

The Aggies won their first 11 games last year before suffering a playoff upset to Miami (FL) in their most recent outing at Kyle Field. Texas A&M aims for another strong start under Mike Elko, looking to improve to 15-0 all-time against Conference USA opponents.

Missouri State Bears outlook

Casey Woods will get his first opportunity to lead a program. Woods helped transform SMU into a perennial American and ACC contender, guiding the Mustangs to three top-12 scoring offenses during his four years as coordinator.

In Dallas, Woods led an up-tempo spread offense that relied heavily on explosive plays. He’ll work alongside former TCU quarterbacks coach and UTEP offensive coordinator Mark Cala to maintain Missouri State’s aggressive offensive identity, especially through the air. The Bears ranked 16th nationally with 280 passing yards per game last season.

Cala brought his UTEP quarterback Skyler Locklear with him to Springfield, MO. Locklear started 16 games in two years with the Miners, totaling 3,001 passing yards, 633 rushing yards, and delivering 23 touchdowns to 17 interceptions. He won the fall camp quarterback competition over Duke transfer Henry Belin IV and has a knack for taking deep shots, while also creating plays with his legs as a scrambler.

The offense has the potential to be one of the CUSA’s better passing attacks. Fifth-year senior Jmariyae Robinson — on track to be the program’s all-time receiving leader by year-end — led the Bears in receptions (44) and receiving touchdowns (7) during a 632-yard campaign a year ago. Tight end Jeron Askren, who added five touchdown catches as a viable red zone threat, is the CUSA’s lone Mackey Award watchlist representative. Makai Cope and former Missouri and Tulsa receiver Mekhi Miller are among other established weapons at Locklear’s disposal.

The Bears had one glaring flaw on offense last year. They allowed the second-most sacks in the country at 52, but they addressed this by restructuring the offensive line. Three transfers will start, including left tackle King Large, who follows Woods from SMU, and center Isaiah Villanueva, who was named a team captain after arriving from FCS Jackson State. They’ll pave the way for new running back Breezy Dunbar, who rushed for 446 yards at Boise State while sharing a backfield with the likes of Ashton Jeanty and George Holani.

Missouri State’s defense surrendered 73 points in the opener at USC last year, but the unit recovered well, holding six of 13 opponents to 21 points or fewer. The unit will undergo a reset, with Jack Curtis taking over as coordinator. Curtis is accustomed to the Kyle Field environment, spending the last three years as an Auburn defensive analyst and making two trips to College Station.

The Bears retained their leading tackler in Jared Lloyd, who started all 13 games and recorded 77 stops and 4.5 tackles for loss. Safeties Christian Ford and Dylan Dixson are among the other key contributors back in Springfield after combining for 100 tackles in 2025. The defensive tackle tandem of Tim Brantley Jr. and Gilles Tchio could also be a strength of Curtis’ defense. Tchio enters his fifth year with the program but was limited to one snap in the 2025 opener before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.

Veteran talent is scattered across the unit, but discipline will be essential, especially in a loud and hostile environment. Missouri State averaged the 12th-most penalty yards per game in the FBS last season — something it cannot afford to replicate as massive underdogs on Saturday.

Texas A&M Aggies outlook

Texas A&M regularly enters Week 1 with lofty expectations. Last year, the Aggies finally lived up to them, starting 11-0 and clinching a berth in the College Football Playoff. With Mike Elko, all three coordinators, and nine returning starters back, Texas A&M opens the season ranked No. 8 in the AP Poll.

The Aggies rattled off 11 wins thanks to a spectacular offense which posted 31+ points in 10 of 13 contests. However, the offense sputtered down the stretch, scoring a combined 20 points against Texas and Miami (FL) in turnover-laden games where the pass protection proved problematic.

Marcel Reed returns for his third season as the starting quarterback. Reed drastically improved from 2024 to 2025, generating the most passing yards (3,169) the program has seen since Johnny Manziel in 2013. He demonsrated the ability to take over games, as evidenced during his 439-yard masterclass in the Aggies’ 30-3 comeback against South Carolina. The Nashville native also thrived with his mobility, but if Texas A&M is going to take another step forward, he’ll have to improve upon his 12 interceptions, which tied for fifth-most in the FBS.

Reed may have lost a first-round NFL Draft wide receiver in KC Concepcion, but the unit remains loaded with Mario Craver and Ashton Bethel-Roman, who logged 917 and 503 yards as the second and third-leading receivers, respectively. The group also adds former Miami (FL) and Alabama standout Isaiah Horton, the Crimson Tide’s 2025 receiving touchdowns leader who brings 1,301 career yards to the offense. Horton stands at 6’4”, but isn’t the only receiving threat with size in Aggies’ arsenal. Transfer tight ends Houston Thomas (UTSA) and Richie Anderson III (Fresno State) could create frequent mismatches in this offense full of veteran weapons.

Texas A&M only allowed 19 sacks last year. Seven were in the CFP game against Miami (FL). It was still a quality offensive line, but four starters are gone and the new-look unit may need time to gel. Center Mark Nabou Jr. is the veteran of the group, and he’ll be joined by SEC transfers Tyree Adams (LSU), Trovon Baugh (South Carolina), and Wilkin Formy (Alabama).

The Aggies were third in the SEC in rushing, and they still feature leading rusher Rueben Owens. Jamarion Morrow likely slides into the RB2 role after a productive freshman season, and four-star true freshmen KJ Edwards and Carsyn Baker could get their first introduction to college football Saturday night.

As sharp as Texas A&M’s offense was last season, the Aggies were even better on defense. They ranked 18th nationally in fewest yards allowed, second in sacks per game (3.3), and first in third down defense, holding opponents to a 22.9 percent conversion rate.

SEC Defensive Player of the Year Cashius Howell is a significant loss for the pass rush, but Texas A&M still has viable pieces throughout the unit. Safeties Marcus Ratcliffe and Dalton Brooks were second and third on the team in tackles, and Brooks was an effective blitzer with 4.0 sacks. Weakside linebacker Damiyon Sanford possesses All-SEC potential after recording 57 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks last season. And cornerback Dezz Ricks was effective in coverage with six pass breakups as a key cog in the Aggies’ 16th-ranked passing defense.

There are two major demands for this defense. First, Texas A&M needs either T.J. Searcy or true sophomore Marco Jones to fill Howell’s role as an elite edge rusher. Second, turnover creation is a must after only managing three interceptions in 2025 — tied for the second-fewest in the FBS.

Prediction

The spread is beyond 40 points, and this one has all the makings of a lopsided affair.

Texas A&M features a wealth of returning talent, and the Aggies have a major edge in a multitude of matchups. Their stacked receiving corps of Mario Craver, Isaiah Horton, and Ashton Bethel-Roman should give fits to Missouri State’s secondary. Additionally, the Aggies’ linebacking corps should be capable of preventing the Bears from gaining much on the ground, positioning them into frequent 3rd-and-long scenarios.

Missouri State suffered the largest Week 1 loss of any FBS program last year, haplessly falling by 60 points at USC. However, the Bears rebounded well and finished their inaugural FBS season with a 7-6 record and a bowl appearance. In the battle of maroon and white programs, the No. 8 team in the country dominates from the jump, and Casey Woods will have to wait until the following week for his first head coaching victory.

Prediction: Texas A&M 52, Missouri State 6