Why CFB analyst believes Lincoln Riley's USC tenure ends similarly to James Franklin at Penn State

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The USC football team is expected to compete for a College Football Playoff berth this season, under head coach Lincoln Riley. Riley is under fire though for not winning more games at USC. One college football analyst believes that Riley’s days in southern California are numbered.

Josh Pate thinks Riley’s tenure will end like James Franklin’s did at Penn State. USC just lost to Oregon in a Big Ten conference game. That loss is the straw that broke the camel’s back for Riley, Pate said.

“I think that’s cooked for USC….around this time last year, Oregon went to Penn State. That was after months and months of buildup….Oregon beats them. Season off the rails and down the cliff,” Pate said on The Rich Eisen Show. “…..If you talk to USC people, everything that applied to what I just said about Penn State last year applied to this last weekend’s game against Oregon.”

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Are Lincoln Riley's days numbered at USC after dropping another game against Oregon?#cfbplayoff@espncfbpic.twitter.com/2wrH8G0moL

— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) September 29, 2026

Pate believes that Riley is essentially done at USC, after his Trojans couldn’t beat an Oregon team that was missing their starting quarterback Dante Moore.

“He will not get that thing back, that will be it for Lincoln Riley at USC,” Pate added. “….He’s not done losing. They are not done losing.”

USC football had a tough game against Oregon

USC is now 4-1 on the season, after losing to Oregon 41-27. Not only did the Trojans lose, but the game was marred when USC defensive player Desman Stephens II was ejected for a hit on Oregon’s Moore.

Stephens then appeared to run around the field and celebrate after the hit.

“Desman’s actions in last night’s game are unacceptable and are not reflective of USC Football nor of his personal character,” Riley said in a statement, per ESPN. “He understands his mistake, accepts the consequences of his actions and will learn from this. The entire Trojan Family wishes Dante a full recovery, and we send our best regards to him and his family.”

The Trojans next play Washington on Saturday. Stephens is suspended for that game, after his hit on Moore.

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