Who is ranked too high, too low on ESPN’s Week 2 college football FPI?

The college football season is officially in full swing following Week 1. There were a number of hot starts, controversies and Heisman-worthy performances.

On Monday, ESPN released its updated college football FPI heading toward Week 2. There were some interesting observations from the analytics machine.

MORE: Updated ESPN FPI college football top 25 rankings after wild Week 1

There are a few teams whose hype may be a bit ahead of reality and some that aren’t getting enough love. Here are the teams ranked too high and too low in this installment of ESPN’s college football FPI.

Too High: Texas

Sep 5, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns edge Colin Simmons (1) reacts after recovering a fumble during the third quarter against the Texas State Bobcats at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Let’s pump the brakes on the Texas Longhorns. Yes, they had a huge, lopsided win on Saturday against … Texas State. They were No. 2 in the preseason ESPN FPI, and they probably should still be there.

The Longhorns will have a chance to prove their new ranking right on Saturday. The Longhorns welcome the previous FPI No. 1 Ohio State to Austin, Texas, for a monster showdown.

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Until they beat a College Football Playoff contender like Ohio State, it doesn’t matter what the analytics say. They aren’t No. 1 until they prove it. Saturday is the big opportunity for head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team.

Too Low: Miami

Sep 4, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney (1) runs after the catch for a touchdown against the Stanford Cardinal during the third quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Miami, ranked No. 4, is probably the second- or third-best team in the nation. The Hurricanes have an outstanding receiver in Malachi Toney, a loaded defense, and a quarterback who could hear his name called very early next April.

The biggest question for Miami is handling expectations following a deep playoff run. If Saturday’s performance against an ACC foe was any indication, things are being handled well.

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Miami is a legitimate contender that might be a few steps better than last year’s team.

Too High: Michigan

Sep 5, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Bryson Kuzdzal (24) fumbles the ball while being tackled by Western Michigan cornerback Jordon Thomas (13) in the third quarter at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Let’s all be honest here. Michigan should not have won on Saturday. The more you look at the replay, the more obvious it is that time ran out. The “hidden clock” is completely baffling to process as an actual explanation.

Michigan shouldn’t be in the top 25. They just shouldn’t. Regardless of the talent on this team, Saturday’s performance was not worthy of a top-25 ranking.

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It’s honestly very puzzling that ESPN’s FPI has them ranked No. 20.

Too Low: Virginia

Aug 29, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Noah Vaughn (3) rushes the ball during the game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg Atkins-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

If any team should be ranked ahead of Michigan, it is Virginia. The Cavaliers took on NC State in Week 0 and completely tore them apart. This NC State team was projected to be one of its best versions in years.

Virginia dominated them and didn’t apologize. To be ranked No. 25 after shredding an ACC foe, well behind Michigan of all teams, is really puzzling.

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