What Analytics Are Saying About Oregon Ducks, Northwestern Wildcats Upset Chances

The Oregon Ducks (4-3 overall, 2-2 Big Ten) are hoping to bounce back from a discouraging third loss on the road against Illinois with a home Halloween game vs. the No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats (6-1 overall, 3-1 Big Ten) at 12:30 p.m. PT, the first time these programs faced each other in Eugene, Oregon.

With the Ducks experiencing several major headlines throughout the week like the medical end of the season for starting senior quarterback Dante Moore, the firing of offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer with assistant quarterbacks coach Jay Johnson overtaking play-calling duties, and the future of the program this season after three losses, there's been a few changes to the games' betting line.

Oregon Ducks Betting Odds Reflect Roller Coasters Season

In a spooky edition of ESPN writer Bill Connelly's week nine preview, Connelly cites Northwestern offensive coordinator and former Oregon coach Chip Kelly's 47-20 takedown of the then-ranked No. 4 USC Trojans at Autzen Stadium as an example for how Halloween games tend to bring some electric upsets.

In fact, Connelly thinks there might be a chance for Oregon to be on the opposite end of his previous example as the Wildcats bring an exciting offense (and a familiar face) to haunt the aptly-dressed Mummy uniform Ducks.

"Legendary former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly returns as the mastermind of a resurgent Northwestern offense. The 6-1 Wildcats are 25th in points per possession on defense (pretty typical for Northwestern) and 17th on offense (extremely atypical). Oregon's defense is excellent, but the Ducks have scored just 14 points per game since Moore's last start," Connelly wrote in his summary.

A Drop For The Ducks

SP+, Connelly's measuring system based on tempo and opponent data created in 2008 meant to measure the most sustainable aspects of the game, originally ranked the Ducks at a 26.6 point favorite against the Wildcats in the preseason. However, in the week ahead of their match-up, the Ducks are sitting at an SP+ projection of winning by 5.8 points.

Oregon's SP+ projections have vastly differed week by week based on Oregon's game results, reflecting the roller coaster 4-3 season the Ducks turned in so far. Dipping from -19.6 against the Boise State Broncos, the Ducks then were put at -28.3 for Oklahoma State. After that loss, the Ducks had their biggest drop of a 12.3 for Portland State.

Looking at SP+'s current team rankings as of Sunday, Oct. 25. the Ducks sit at No. 12 on the national list under the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (6-2 overall) and above the No. 13 BYU Cougars (6-1).

Entering This Game Against Northwestern

With these statistics from Connelly, and considering the breadth of season-impacting announcements from the Ducks in the week leading up to the game, it shouldn't come as a shock that the Ducks' chances against a Northwestern team coming off a 42-14 crushing of Rutgers are lower than their preseason projections.

However, the proof will show on the field, as the Ducks search for a consistent answer on cementing an explosive offense for a season that's provided anything but.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/oregon as What Analytics Are Saying About Oregon Ducks, Northwestern Wildcats Upset Chances.