Week 8 college football best bets: Kansas State, Iowa, LSU

Six of these seven college football Week 8 best bets back road teams, led by Kansas State’s trip to Tempe, where the Wildcats have lost all five of their previous visits to Arizona State.

No. 6 Indiana lays 7 points at Michigan one week after Ohio State ended its 22-game winning streak, and No. 15 Iowa gives 6.5 at Minnesota with Jeremy Hecklinski starting over a healthy Hank Brown. The only total on the card is the under 50.5 in Texas A&M-Alabama.

Hat tip to Game On Paper and ESPN FPI for providing a lot of the advanced stats and matchup data.

MORE: Week 8 college football prediction market picks: Tennessee, Indiana carry best values

Indiana (-7) vs. Michigan

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 24, 12 p.m. ET, Fox

No. 6 Indiana (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) lost 19-15 to Ohio State when Nick Marsh’s left foot landed out of bounds on a fourth-and-4 throw into the end zone. Quarterback Josh Hoover finished 20 of 40 for 296 yards and lost a fumble, his first turnover of the season.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti opened his Monday press conference by calling Michigan an “impressive team, especially on defense.” The Hoosiers have run for fewer than 75 yards in each of their last two games, so Hoover’s arm will carry more of the load in Ann Arbor.

Michigan (4-2, 1-2) beat Penn State 21-18 after coach Kyle Whittingham benched Bryce Underwood at halftime for true freshman Tommy Carr. Underwood threw two first-half interceptions, and the Wolverines’ first-year coach hasn’t named a starter. “We’re not going to tip our hand,” Whittingham said.

Michigan scored fewer than 20 points in four of its first five games. Indiana allows 12.9 points per game, and a Wolverines offense still sorting out its quarterback should have trouble scoring enough to keep this inside a touchdown.

Picks: Indiana 27-17, Indiana -7

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LSU (-7.5) vs. Auburn

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 24, 12 p.m. ET, ABC

No. 18 LSU (5-2, 2-2 SEC) shut out No. 16 Mississippi State 31-0, and quarterback Sam Leavitt went 31 of 38 for 289 yards and four touchdowns in his first turnover-free game of the season. Both of the Tigers’ losses came on the road, at Ole Miss and Kentucky.

LSU coach Lane Kiffin said road losses usually come down to “more penalties, more false starts and more turnovers” than home games. He also said “relief syndrome is real” after Auburn’s 27-24 upset of No. 1 Georgia in Athens.

Auburn (4-2, 2-2) quarterback Byrum Brown earned SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors in that win, and he’s the first Auburn quarterback to rush for 100 yards in back-to-back games since Nick Marshall in 2013. Auburn coach Alex Golesh wants Jordan-Hare Stadium “juicy, rocking as it always is.”

Tight end Trey’Dez Green is off the injury report for the first time since spraining his knee at Ole Miss, though linebacker Whit Weeks and safety Dashawn Spears remain out. LSU leads FBS in adjusted defensive EPA per play, per Game On Paper, and that defense should contain Brown enough for the Tigers to cover a number no higher than 7.5.

Picks: LSU 27-17, LSU -7.5

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BYU (-6.5) vs. UCF

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 24, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox

No. 2 BYU (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) beat Notre Dame 28-24 as Bear Bachmeier threw for 224 yards and a touchdown, ran for two scores and caught a 15-yard touchdown pass. The sophomore quarterback earned AP National Player of the Week honors, and BYU has opened 6-0 for a third straight season for the first time in program history.

Cougars coach Kalani Sitake brushed off the No. 2 ranking. “Just keep the rat poison away from the boys,” he said.

UCF (3-3, 1-2) lost its last two games before a bye, including a 42-28 defeat at Oklahoma State in which it was outscored 21-7 in the second half. Starter Alonza Barnett III has missed four games with a hamstring injury, so Keyone Jenkins is expected to make his fifth straight start. Knights coach Scott Frost called BYU “the best of the bunch” in the Big 12.

Bachmeier completed 21 of 25 passes for 289 yards against UCF in last season’s 41-21 BYU win. The Cougars hold opponents to 4.68 yards per play, and a UCF offense averaging 5.29 yards per play with a fill-in quarterback shouldn’t keep pace for four quarters.

Picks: BYU 30-21, BYU -6.5

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Tennessee (+2.5) vs. South Carolina

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 24, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

No. 11 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) beat Alabama 26-10, and the Vols’ defense allowed 201 total yards with five sacks and two interceptions. George MacIntyre went 21 of 31 for 197 yards and an interception, and he’s expected to make his third straight start in place of Faizon Brandon.

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel didn’t commit publicly. “George has played smart and efficient. I like a lot of what he’s done,” Heupel said.

South Carolina (3-3, 1-3) is coming off a bye after a 38-19 win at Florida, and Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer expects everyone who missed that game back except Quay’Sheed Scott. Beamer said Tennessee is “lights out on defense.”

The Vols allow 4.75 yards per play, while South Carolina gives up 7.05 yards per dropback. That gives MacIntyre openings a passing game averaging 5.31 yards per dropback hasn’t found often. Running back DeSean Bishop carried 32 times and scored twice against Alabama, and a Tennessee offense built on the run can win in Columbia without a big day from its quarterback.

Picks: Tennessee 27-21, Tennessee +2.5

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Texas A&M vs. Alabama (U50.5)

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 24, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

No. 13 Alabama (5-2, 3-2 SEC) lost to Georgia and Tennessee in consecutive weeks. The program’s first back-to-back regular-season losses since 2007. The Crimson Tide allowed nine sacks and 16 tackles for loss in those two games. Quarterback Keelon Russell threw one touchdown pass and two interceptions.

“A lot of hours and time put into 10 points, and it’s embarrassing,” Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said.

Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3) shut out The Citadel 41-0 last week. The Aggies are tied with Vanderbilt for last in the SEC in scoring in conference games at 16.8 PPG. Marcel Reed has completed 55.7% of his passes with seven touchdowns and six interceptions after leading A&M to the College Football Playoff last season.

The Aggies’ defense still ranks fourth in the SEC in scoring defense. “When we function and play the way we’re capable of, we’re a good unit,” Aggies coach Mike Elko said.

Alabama’s defense held Tennessee to four first-half field goals and allows 3.96 yards per rush. Both offenses have struggled to protect the quarterback, and A&M averages 4.85 yards per play, so the under is a better play than laying two touchdowns with the Tide.

Picks: Alabama 27-16, U50.5

MORE: Big 12 admits mistake: Notre Dame deserved final play in controversial loss to BYU

Iowa (-6.5) vs. Minnesota

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 24, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1

No. 15 Iowa (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) beat Washington 41-24 on Oct. 9 as Jeremy Hecklinski completed 14 of 19 passes for 202 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start. Kamari Moulton ran for 208 yards, and the Hawkeyes held the Huskies to minus-3 rushing yards.

Hank Brown is healthy after spraining his throwing shoulder against Ohio State. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is sticking with the Marietta, Georgia, native. “It’s not a coin toss, but it’s awfully close,” Ferentz said.

Minnesota (4-2, 2-1) lost 41-13 at Purdue before its bye, and Gophers coach P.J. Fleck is 1-8 against Ferentz. Minnesota hasn’t won the Floyd of Rosedale in Minneapolis since 2014.

The Gophers rank 120th in adjusted offensive EPA per play and average 4.02 yards per carry, while Iowa allows 3.64 yards per rush. If Minnesota can’t run, quarterback Drake Lindsey faces a Hawkeyes front that sacked Washington six times.

Picks: Iowa 28-14, Iowa -6.5

Kansas State (-2.5) vs. Arizona State

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 24, 3:45 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Kansas State (4-2, 1-2 Big 12) beat Kansas 35-24 for its 18th straight win in the series, piling up 568 yards. Running back Joe Jackson ran for 159 yards, and quarterback Avery Johnson added 132 rushing yards and 203 passing yards.

Wildcats coach Collin Klein said going “3-of-8 touchdowns in the red zone is not nearly good enough.” K-State is 0-5 all-time at Arizona State, and its last trip to Tempe came in 1989.

Arizona State (3-3, 1-2) lost 55-19 to Baylor and 53-25 at Texas Tech in consecutive weeks. Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham benched Cutter Boley at halftime in Lubbock after a pick-six on his first throw. Mikey Keene is expected to make his first start for ASU. The sixth-year veteran went 25 of 34 for 256 yards and two touchdowns in that second half.

Keene gives Arizona State a steadier passer, but he doesn’t fix a run defense allowing 6.21 yards per carry. Kansas State averages 6.38 yards per rush. Jackson and Johnson running at that front can keep Keene on the sideline for long stretches.

Picks: Kansas State 34-28, Kansas State -2.5

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