Week 6 College Football Playoff predictions: The SEC is as packed as ever

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Each week this college football season, it seems as if the picture at the top of the SEC gets muddier and muddier, and the College Football Playoff picture gets harder to predict as a result. One week, Ole Miss was beating up on LSU at home. The next week, the Rebels were getting routed by Florida on the road.

The Gators were one of the victims of one of those letdowns in Week 5. Just seven days after thrashing Ole Miss in Gainesville, Jon Sumrall and the Gators went on the road and got beat badly 45-17 by Missouri.

Mississippi State, after getting a big win over Missouri a week ago, was also sent crashing back down to Earth on Saturday in a 56-23 home loss to an Alabama.

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As a result, there is a massive second tier of teams in the SEC with just one or two losses. Georgia, Alabama and Texas sit atop the league, but Florida, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri all sit just behind them.

Of course, not all of those teams can sneak into the CFP, and a lot of them will eliminate each other over the course of the next few months. Who will make the cut in the end? Here’s our latest projection.

1. Texas (12-1, SEC Champion)

Texas was off in Week 5, but the Longhorns still have the best resume in the country even if the eye test doesn’t always line up. Next up for Steve Sarkisian and company is the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma in a game that should be anything but a shootout. The Longhorns should dominate on defense in that one, but it will be another stiff test for Arch Manning and the Texas offense.

2. Ohio State (12-1, Big Ten Champion)

Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football, and there is nothing that anyone can do about it. The Heisman favorite had another monster game on Saturday, finishing with 11 catches for 206 yards and two touchdowns on the road against one of the best defenses in the country. As long as Smith continues to be uncoverable, the Buckeyes will be very difficult to stop.

3. Miami (FL) (13-0, ACC Champion)

Miami continues to go about its business and roll through the ACC. On Saturday night, the Hurricanes walked into Death Valley and ran Clemson off of the field in a 41-13 rout. Mario Cristobal and company should be able to do the same to the rest of the ACC, but the trip to South Bend to take on Notre Dame still looms in November.

4. LSU (11-2, SEC Runner-Up)

LSU had a cupcake on Saturday night, but the Tigers still have a schedule that sets up nicely for them to get some big wins late in the season. Lane Kiffin and company get Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas all at home, which should be a springboard into the CFP discussion.

5. Alabama (11-1)

Alabama was arguably the most impressive team of the weekend, as Kalen DeBoer’s squad threw the ball all over Mississippi State in a 56-23 win. The defense forced four turnovers and Keelon Russell continues to look like the real deal. Russell has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football so far this season and is right in the middle of the Heisman Trophy discussion, but he will have to prove it once again on Saturday against Georgia.

6. Georgia (11-1)

Georgia struggled a little bit on Saturday before pulling away from Vanderbilt in the second half, but there’s still nothing big to be concerned about when it comes to the Bulldogs’ title chances or CFP chances. Of course, it could have also been a lookahead spot for Kirby Smart and company with a trip to Tuscaloosa on deck.

7. Utah (12-1, Big 12 Champion)

Utah didn’t play on Saturday, but the Utes are just as steady as ever in 2026. Devon Dampier makes good decisions with the football and Utah dominates on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. This is an elite running game and a defense that still has continuity under Morgan Scalley. The Big 12 is wide open, but the Utes have a nice schedule and an inside track to the CFP.

8. Indiana (11-2, Big Ten Runner-Up)

Indiana got its turn to blast Rutgers off the field on Saturday, and Curt Cignetti and company took advantage. The Hoosiers still don’t look like quite the same machine that ran the table a year ago, but this is still a well-coached team with a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Next up for the Hoosiers is a tricky test on the road against a Nebraska team that hasn’t been super impressive, but the Huskers are undefeated and it will be a very hostile environment in Lincoln.

9. Notre Dame (11-1)

Notre Dame still hasn’t played anyone that can really trouble it yet, but the Irish just don’t look very impressive. North Carolina was able to find a bit of a rhythm on Saturday, thanks to some help from the special teams. Now, Notre Dame is also dealing with an injury to Leonard Moore along with the injury to Tae Johnson at safety as a trip to BYU quickly approaches.

10. Oregon (10-2)

Oregon was off in Week 5, and now the Ducks get into the toughest stretch of their schedule. UCLA comes to Eugene in Week 6 for a blockbuster matchup and a prove-it spot for the Bruins in Bob Chesney’s first year. Ohio State still waits on the slate later in the year, and the Ducks can likely only afford one more slip-up this year if they want to get into the CFP.

11. Ole Miss (9-3)

Ole Miss had the week off in Week 5 as Pete Golding and company recovered from that brutal loss to Florida in Gainesville. The Rebels still play Georgia and Texas, two likely losses, but their win over LSU is going to age very well and they can pick up a win over what should be a ranked Mississippi State team during the final week of the regular season. Ole Miss wins a very tight race for the final at-large spot.

12. Boise State (12-1, Pac-12 Champion)

Boise State continued to go about its business on Saturday with a 37-18 win over Utah State. After an impressive performance to open the season against Oregon and a few more strong performances in non-conference play, there is still nothing to suggest that anyone is going to be able to knock them off in Pac-12 play.

Next Out: Oklahoma State (10-2), Texas Tech (10-2), BYU (10-3, Big 12 Runner-Up), Florida (9-3), UCLA (10-2)

First Round Predictions

No. 5 Alabama defeats No. 12 Boise State

No. 6 Georgia defeats No. 11 Ole Miss

No. 10 Oregon defeats no. 7 Utah

No. 9 Notre Dame defeats No. 8 Indiana

Quarterfinal Predictions

No. 1 Texas defeats No. 9 Notre Dame

No. 2 Ohio State defeats No. 10 Oregon

No. 3 Miami (FL) defeats No. 6 Georgia

No. 5 Alabama defeats No. 4 LSU

Semifinal Predictions

No. 5 Alabama defeats No. 1 Texas

No. 3 Miami (FL) defeats No. 2 Ohio State

National Championship

No. 3 Miami (FL) defeats No. 5 Alabama

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