Week 11 college football best bets: Wake Forest, Alabama make road statements

No. 4 UCLA, No. 3 Alabama and No. 8 Tennessee are laying points on the Week 11 college football best bets card, while No. 13 Wake Forest gets 1.5 at SMU with quarterback Gio Lopez expected back from a lower-body injury.

No. 6 Texas visits No. 21 LSU with edge rusher Colin Simmons and receiver Cam Coleman off the injury report, and the total is the better bet in a meeting of two top-five defenses.

Hat tip to Game On Paper and ESPN FPI for providing a lot of the advanced stats and matchup data.

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Illinois vs. UCLA (-10, U47.5)

• Kickoff: Friday, November 13, 9 p.m. ET, Fox

No. 4 UCLA (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) can tie the program record for wins in a season with a victory at the Rose Bowl. Ty Dieffenbach threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns on eight completions in a 34-20 win at Minnesota, including 75-yard scores to Aidan Mizell on back-to-back offensive snaps in the fourth quarter.

Illinois (6-3, 4-2) has won four straight, and Katin Houser threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns in a 24-13 win over Nebraska. Collin Dixon caught two of them and broke the program’s single-season record for touchdown receptions.

UCLA’s defense ranks fifth nationally in adjusted expected points added per play, leads FBS with 17 interceptions and allows 87.7 rushing yards per game. That puts this game on Houser against a secondary that takes the ball away. Meanwhile, Illinois allows 6.15 yards per play, and Wayne Knight, who has scored in nine straight games, leads a Bruins running game averaging 213.2 yards per game.

UCLA can build a two-score lead on the ground, and its defense keeps Illinois from pushing this game over 47.5.

Picks: UCLA 31-14, UCLA -10, U47.5

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Houston (-9.5) vs. Colorado (O51.5)

• Kickoff: Friday, November 13, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

No. 14 Houston (7-2) stayed in the Big 12 title race with a 31-24 win over Cincinnati. Re’Shaun Sanford II ran for 126 yards and the tie-breaking touchdown in the fourth quarter, and Conner Weigman completed 17 of 24 passes for 227 yards and two touchdowns to Amare Thomas.

Colorado (3-6, 1-5 Big 12) trailed 17-0 at halftime of a 20-10 loss at Arizona State. “We just couldn’t get anything going through the offense,” coach Deion Sanders said.

ESPN’s Football Power Index rates Houston 15.6 points better than Colorado on a neutral field, so 9.5 leaves room even with the trip to Boulder. The Cougars average 6.67 yards per play, and Sanford and Makhi Hughes combined for 216 rushing yards against Cincinnati.

Houston’s defense is the reason for the over, though. It allows 6.22 yards per play, and Colorado quarterback Isaac Wilson threw for 248 yards against Arizona State. The Buffaloes should score enough to push this total past 51.5 while Houston still covers.

Picks: Houston 34-20, Houston -9.5, O51.5

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Wake Forest (+1.5) vs. SMU (O60.5)

• Kickoff: Saturday, November 14, noon ET, ESPN

No. 13 Wake Forest (8-1) held Lopez out against Merrimack, and backup Steele Pizzella piled up 495 passing and rushing yards in his first career start. Lopez is probable for SMU after the lower-body injury, and the North Carolina transfer has 18 touchdown passes and one interception this season.

SMU (7-2, 5-2 ACC) bounced back from a loss at Syracuse with a 51-28 win over Virginia Tech. Wake Forest beat the Mustangs 13-12 last season on a 50-yard field goal on the final play. “The worst offensive performance since we’ve been here. Not even close,” SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said afterward.

Wake Forest +1.5 is the strongest side on the card, because the Demon Deacons average 5.43 yards per carry against an SMU defense allowing 5.25. That lets Wake Forest run the ball instead of trading pass plays with SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings.

Wake Forest also averages 7.02 yards per play to SMU’s 6.80. With Lopez back, the better team is getting points, and two offenses this efficient should combine for just over 60.5.

Picks: Wake Forest 34-27, Wake Forest +1.5, O60.5

MORE:Week 11 college fantasy football rankings: Michael Hawkins Jr. back at QB1

Alabama (-17.5) vs. Vanderbilt (U50.5)

• Kickoff: Saturday, November 14, 12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network

No. 3 Alabama (7-2, 5-2 SEC) shut out LSU in the fourth quarter of a 31-13 win in Baton Rouge. Keelon Russell completed 17 of 24 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns after an ankle injury sent him to the injury tent. “I wasn’t going to let the injury stop me from being who I am,” Russell said.

The sophomore is probable against Vanderbilt, but tight end Josh Ford, who caught one of those touchdowns, is out for the season.

Vanderbilt (4-5) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 25-23 win over Mississippi State, and Brock Taylor kicked six field goals for the Commodores’ first SEC win of the season. Vanderbilt also has eight players listed as out, including quarterback Blaze Berlowitz.

The Commodores average 3.97 yards per carry, and Alabama allows 3.83, so Vanderbilt will have to throw against a defense that intercepted Sam Leavitt last week. Going the other way, Alabama averages 5.51 yards per carry against a Vanderbilt defense allowing 5.03. A three-touchdown win fits, and Vanderbilt’s offense keeps this game under 50.5.

Picks: Alabama 34-13, Alabama -17.5, U50.5

Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M (U43.5)

• Kickoff: Saturday, November 14, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN

No. 8 Tennessee (7-2, 4-2 SEC) held Kentucky to six points in a 34-6 win, but edge rusher Tyree Weathersby, the Vols’ sack leader, suffered a season-ending knee injury. “I hate it for Tyree,” coach Josh Heupel said Monday.

Texas A&M (4-5, 1-5) didn’t score a touchdown in a 17-9 loss at South Carolina, two weeks after giving up a fourth-quarter lead at Alabama. Guard Trovon Baugh is doubtful and receiver Mario Craver is questionable, and the Aggies still face Oklahoma and Texas after this game.

Both defenses are good enough to keep this game low-scoring, so the edge goes to the team that can run. Tennessee averages 5.74 yards per carry, while A&M averages just 4.91 yards per play, and a doubtful starting guard won’t help that offense.

Weathersby’s absence makes this a smaller play than Wake Forest. Still, Tennessee’s running game is enough to win by more than a field goal in a game that stays under 43.5.

Picks: Tennessee 24-17, Tennessee -2.5, U43.5

Louisville (-3.5) vs. North Carolina (U60.5)

• Kickoff: Saturday, November 14, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Louisville (6-3) ran for 251 yards in a 44-17 win at Georgia Tech, which gave coach Jeff Brohm his 100th career win. Isaac Brown scored on seven carries in limited work, and he’s probable against the Tar Heels.

North Carolina (5-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 38-21 win at UConn, where Billy Edwards threw three touchdown passes, and the Tar Heels scored 21 points off three turnovers. One more win makes coach Bill Belichick’s team bowl eligible.

Louisville averages 7.70 yards per play and 7.26 yards per carry, and North Carolina allows 4.82 yards per carry. That lets the Cardinals control this game with I. Brown, Keyjuan Brown and quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who ran for 81 yards against Georgia Tech.

North Carolina can score too, though. Edwards and the Tar Heels put up 38 points at UConn, and Louisville’s defense allows 5.64 yards per play. Louisville wins by a touchdown in a game with enough offense on both sides to clear 60.5.

Picks: Louisville 34-27, Louisville -3.5, O60.5

Texas vs. LSU (-4, U46.5)

• Kickoff: Saturday, November 14, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

No. 6 Texas (7-2, 4-2 SEC) scored three unanswered second-half touchdowns in a 34-20 win at Missouri, and Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns. “Like we say all the time, we’re big-game hunters,” coach Steve Sarkisian said.

Simmons and Coleman are off the availability report after Simmons played minimal snaps and Coleman sat out against Missouri. Defensive tackle Hero Kanu is questionable.

No. 21 LSU (6-3, 3-3) lost 31-13 to Alabama, which left first-year coach Lane Kiffin’s team with long-shot playoff hopes. Linebacker Whit Weeks is questionable after missing more than a month following ankle surgery.

Texas ranks first nationally in adjusted expected points added per play on defense and LSU ranks fourth, which makes the under the clearest play in this game. The Longhorns allow 4.42 yards per play, and the Tigers allow 4.48.

Coleman’s return gives Manning his top target back, but Texas’ offense still averages just 5.56 yards per play. LSU’s home field supports a narrow win, and two defenses this good should keep the game under 46.5.

Picks: LSU 23-17, U46.5, LSU -4

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