Week 10 college football prediction market picks: Texas, UCLA, Penn State road tests

College football heads into Week 10 with No. 1 Miami traveling to No. 4 Notre Dame, Alabama visiting LSU in the final year of their annual series and unbeaten UCLA playing its first road game since Oct. 10.

Five of the six picks side with the market favorite. The exception sends Penn State, fresh off its first Big Ten win under coach Matt Campbell, to Seattle as an outright upset pick against Washington.

MORE: Week 10 college fantasy football rankings: Jackson Gutierrez leaps to QB1

Nebraska over Illinois

• Friday, November 6 at 8 p.m. ET
• Kalshi: 64% NEB, Polymarket: 64% NEB

Nebraska has lost three straight games. In the latest, quarterback Anthony Colandrea threw three interceptions in a 17-10 home loss to Washington, even though the Cornhuskers outgained the Huskies 387-267. Coach Matt Rhule kept his staff intact, said he’s “steady in the boat” and added, “I just saw an offense that was trying to do too much.”

Illinois has won three in a row, but it needed a 26-yard field goal from Ethan Moczulski on the final play to beat Maryland 20-17. Quarterback Katin Houser started that game 19 days after surgery on his throwing hand. The Illini defense has allowed scores on 96.6% of opponents’ red zone trips. Nebraska allows 270.8 yards per game, eighth nationally, and that defense should carry the Huskers in Champaign.

Pick: 28-20, Nebraska (Nebraska -4.5, Under 49.5)

MORE:Predicting College Football Playoff rankings entering Week 10 of 2026 season

Texas over Missouri

• Saturday, November 7 at noon ET
• Kalshi: 58% TEX, Polymarket: 57% TEX

Texas has bounced back from back-to-back October losses to Oklahoma and Florida with wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Quarterback Arch Manning went 16 of 20 for 220 yards and three touchdowns against the Bulldogs, and coach Steve Sarkisian said, “I’ve never felt better about Arch Manning than I do this week.”

Protection is the concern after Manning took five sacks in that game. Missouri forced four turnovers in a 34-10 win at Arkansas, and running back Jamal Roberts passed 1,000 rushing yards on the day. Still, Texas allows 273.1 yards per game, ninth nationally, and the Longhorns’ defense is the best unit on the field at Faurot Field.

Pick: 24-17, Texas (Texas -2.5, Under 43.5)

UCLA over Minnesota

• Saturday, November 7 at noon ET
• Kalshi: 68% UCLA, Polymarket: 67% UCLA

UCLA reached 8-0 for the first time since 2005 with a 27-0 shutout of Nevada. Its defense has carried the Bruins since quarterback Nico Iamaleava suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Oct. 10 win at Oregon. UCLA intercepted four passes against Nevada and has 16 this season.

Coach Bob Chesney warned that “these next four games are going to be very physical.” Minnesota just took No. 4 Indiana to overtime before losing 23-16. But the Golden Gophers haven’t scored more than 20 points in any of their last four games. Quarterback Ty Dieffenbach only needs to avoid turnovers for the Bruins to win in Minneapolis.

Pick: 24-13, UCLA (UCLA -5.5, Under 39.5)

LSU over Alabama

• Saturday, November 7 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi: 67% LSU, Polymarket: 68% LSU

Both teams are 6-2 for the last game of the annual series. LSU coach Lane Kiffin said Alabama’s roster looks like “old Alabama teams,” the ones he worked with as an assistant in Tuscaloosa. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s team is 6-0 when it scores 30 points. Its two losses came against Georgia and Tennessee, the only games in which it scored fewer than 20.

LSU leads the country in adjusted net expected points added per play and ranks second defensively. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has cut down on mistakes, and Kiffin said he “hasn’t forced anything.” The Tigers’ defense, plus the first afternoon meeting in Tiger Stadium since 2010, gives LSU the edge.

MORE: Oklahoma fires offensive coordinator after Saturday’s South Carolina loss

Pick: 30-23, LSU (LSU -5.5, Over 52.5)

Penn State over Washington

• Saturday, November 7 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi: 47% PSU, Polymarket: 46% PSU

Penn State snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-17 win over Purdue, the first Big Ten victory under Campbell. Running back Cam Wallace ran for 135 yards in his first career start, and the defense held Purdue to 33 rushing yards.

Washington managed only 118 first-half yards at Nebraska and needed quarterback Demond Williams Jr. off the bench to rally for a 17-10 win. Linebacker Tony Rojas, who has 10.5 tackles for loss, leads a Penn State defense that allows 5.01 yards per dropback, compared with 6.16 for Washington. That pass defense is enough to win the Nittany Lions’ first game in Seattle since 1921.

Pick: 24-21, Penn State (Penn State +2.5, Over 44.5)

MORE: USC’s Lincoln Riley earns major award after upset over Ohio State

Notre Dame over Miami

• Saturday, November 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi: 65% ND, Polymarket: 65% ND

Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown 25 touchdowns and one interception for 8-0 Miami and now leads the Heisman Trophy odds. The Hurricanes rank first in adjusted offensive expected points added per play and average 7.21 yards per play, so the markets undersell their upset chances.

Miami’s pass defense is the problem. North Carolina threw for 341 yards in a 38-35 Hurricanes win, and coach Mario Cristobal pointed to “soft spots in our coverage.” Notre Dame allows a nation-low 236.1 yards per game. Coach Marcus Freeman wants the crowd so loud that “the coach-to-player communication ain’t helping anybody.” The Irish will be without leading tackler Drayk Bowen, but their defense wins a close one in South Bend.

Pick: 31-28, Notre Dame (Miami +5.5, Over 57.5)

— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.