These 3 teams will miss the College Football Playoff despite being in 12-team bracket now

These 3 teams will miss the College Football Playoff despite being in 12-team bracket now originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Will the third time be the charm for BYU?

For the third straight season, the Cougars opened in the top 12 of the College Football Playoff rankings when the first set was unveiled Tuesday night.

That's a good omen 75% of the time the last two years. Nine of the top 12 teams inside the bracket after the first ranking made the College Football Playoff in each of the last two seasons.

That means three teams have missed each of those years.

BYU, of course, has fallen out both times. The Cougars were No. 7 in the first rankings last season but did not make the CFP. Notre Dame (No. 10) and Texas (No. 11) also missed the playoff. In 2024, Miami (No. 4), BYU (No. 9) and Alabama (No. 11) missed the playoff.

The 12 teams in the first CFP bracket

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With that in mind, which three teams inside the top 12 will miss the College Football Playoff this year? Here are our three best bets.

BENDER: Winners (SEC) and losers (Notre Dame) from first CFP ranking

No. 6 Kentucky (7-1)

We hate doing this to Kentucky because the Wildcats have been one of the best stories in the SEC this season under first-year coach Will Stein. But the fact the Wildcats are already behind two-loss Alabama shows the committee doesn't really believe yet, and that 45-17 head-to-head loss to the Crimson Tide on Sept. 12 could resurface later.

That does not make it right. Alabama is the most overvalued team in the first rankings, and the Crimson Tide could take a third loss at No. 14 LSU in Week 10. But the committee is setting a precedent that hurts Kentucky if the team cannot take care of business in November.

The Wildcats have one of the toughest remaining schedules among the contenders. No. 13 Tennessee, No. 24 Florida and No. 18 Missouri complete the SEC schedule, and all that precedes a rivalry game against Louisville. Those teams have a combined record of 22-10.

Kentucky will have to go 3-1 in that stretch. Otherwise, they will get lost in the three-loss shuffle among the SEC playoff hopefuls, even with the 35-34 overtime victory against LSU on Oct. 10.

MORE: What a 24-team bracket would look like

No. 9 BYU (7-1)

BYU could win 10 games for the third straight season and still not make the College Football Playoff. This projection changes if the Cougars win the much-anticipated "Holy War" against No. 3 Utah. That would give BYU a cleaner look at a second straight Big 12 championship game appearance and a first CFP playoff berth.

A loss to the Utes, who are 4.5-point favorites, complicates that path. No. 15 Texas Tech does not play BYU or Utah, and the Red Raiders have one conference loss. BYU's 39-31 overtime loss at UCF hurts just as much as the 28-24 victory against No. 11 Notre Dame helps. The Big 12 is unlikely to get three playoff teams – especially seeing how the committee treated one-loss Texas Tech.

BYU cannot make the CFP without at least getting to the Big 12 championship game, and that is why it has to beat the Utes. BYU has won the last three meetings by a combined total of 13 points. If Notre Dame beats Miami and Utah beats BYU – and that is our prediction – the Cougars are in trouble.

MORE: Picks against the spread for epic Week 10 slate

No. 10 Ole Miss (6-2)

The Rebels are the third-highest ranked two-loss team among the SEC crowd, and it might be too difficult to leap ahead of Alabama, who is five spots higher, and Texas, who beat the Rebels 34-27 on Oct. 24.

There remains a lot to like about Ole Miss, starting with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who leads the SEC with 2,189 passing yards. The Rebels average 37.1 points per game. This assessment changes dramatically if Ole Miss beats No. 2 Georgia on Saturday. This is the de facto elimination game for the Rebels.

A third loss would push the Rebels behind No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 12 Ohio State, teams that probably should be ranked ahead of them now. Plus, that 52-28 loss at Florida on Sept. 26 remains an eye-sore.

Ole Miss does have a 32-24 victory on LSU on its resume, but that is the only win against a team that is currently ranked in the CFP Top 25.