The 2026 Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 9

Halloween will be the stage for most of the Big Ten’s next slate of games, and things are about as spooky as they’ve been. Now, with only a handful of games left on the schedule, there is a clear tier of contenders emerging, but one bad weekend could pose a massive threat to the Big Ten’s quest for four consecutive titles.

Between injuries, struggling champions, and the elimination of our preseason favorite, the Big Ten has seen it all.

The 2026 Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 9

Locks

N/A

We are getting closer to crowning locks. Not there yet, but we are getting closer. Two more weeks?

Contenders

#2 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0)

Last week, the Buckeyes were idle, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Julian Sayin is going to be out for the foreseeable future, though Ryan Day would not commit to a timeline as he prefers to keep injury news and prognoses close to the vest. So, presumably, it’ll be true freshman Luke Fahey taking the reins.

This is going to be Day’s greatest test to date. Will he use both Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, a five-star recruit of the 2025 class, only behind Alabama’s Keelon Russell? Either way, we are going to see just how quarterback-proof Jeremiah Smith truly is.

Even then, can Matt Patricia’s defense lead the way to Indianapolis? It’s certainly possible, but the final five games of the year look more difficult today than they did in the preseason.

#4 Indiana (7-1, 4-1)

After dropping its first regular-season game in nearly two years, Indiana rebounded…barely. Michigan is not a good team, but the Wolverines nearly upset the Hoosiers at the Big House.

Was it a post-big-game hangover, or are the cracks in the Curt Cignetti squad much bigger than previously thought?

Just like with Ohio State, how far can the impressive Hoosier defense carry the team? In order to get back to the Big Ten Championship, Indiana will need to win out and get a little help along the way.

#7 UCLA (7-0, 5-0)

Things are getting interesting. For just the fifth time since the turn of the millennium, UCLA is a top-seven team. In football.

The Bruins took down Michigan State last week in uninspiring fashion. Considering Nico Iamaleava is done for the year, it’s all on Ty Dieffenbach‘s shoulders. He’s been fine, but the question will be: can he be the guy to lead UCLA to the greatest heights in the sport?

However, as the cliché goes, defense wins championships. Ohio State’s defense is great. Indiana’s defense is great. And, as it turns out, UCLA’s is as well. This year, the Bruins have allowed over 275 yards of total offense twice, while holding foes to under 200 three times.

Of all of the contenders, UCLA’s path to the CFP may be the smoothest. There are two teams left on the schedule that have not been eliminated yet. However, by the time the Bruins face Minnesota and USC, both could be out of the running.

With a weaker strength of schedule, we may wait until UCLA’s 10th win to move it to “Locks.”

Wild Cards

#20 Northwestern (6-1, 4-0)

The Wildcats just keep winning. Sure, to this point, Northwestern hasn’t beaten any teams we expect to be bowl-eligible, but it’s Northwestern; wins used to be hard to come by.

Last week, Northwestern smacked Rutgers around. This week, it gets to kick Oregon while the Ducks are down.

With the schedule ahead – and with no team looking truly unbeatable – Northwestern could join its brethren in the “Contenders” tier with a win this week. Of course, Iowa and Ohio State follow soon thereafter, but if the Wildcats finish 10-2, they’re in.

Imagine a world where UCLA AND Northwestern make the CFP.

#25 Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1)

Remember when everyone was ready to personally hand Luke Fickell his walking papers? Those days seem so long ago, don’t they?

Wisconsin beat, no, it demolished USC last weekend. The Trojans were a “Contender” last week, and now they’re unranked and reeling. Of course, it gets a little easier down the stretch. Two teams remain out of the “Eliminated” tier, including this week’s foe in Iowa.

Since that Week 1 loss to Notre Dame, the Wisconsin defense has allowed just 11 points per game. Even with that 41-point performance, the Badgers’ scoring defense is 13th in the FBS.

The Big Ten’s place in the hierarchy may be safe if its CFP teams put up elite defensive showings. With everything going on around those teams within striking distance, that may be the path. Wisconsin fits that mould.

Nebraska (5-2, 2-2)

Technically, we could be vindicated by including Nebraska in the “Eliminated” tier, but we aren’t there just yet. However, back-to-back losses – the most recent of which to an eliminated Oregon team – have the Huskers teetering.

Nebraska’s bye week has come and gone, so we will have to see if Matt Rhule can lead this team to glory. The final five matchups don’t look too promising, but if Nebraska can win out, it’s a whole new ballgame.

That is a massive IF, however.

Minnesota (5-2, 3-1)

A team that could spoil Wisconsin’s chances is its biggest rival. Considering Minnesota has been winning trophy games left and right this year, it’s more than possible that the Golden Gophers make some real noise.

Minnesota is one loss away from elimination. With Indiana, UCLA, Northwestern, and Wisconsin left on the schedule, it’s going to be difficult.

Disappointments With Opportunities Ahead

USC (6-2, 3-2)

As one of those “college football is better when X team is good” programs, USC has some of the best plot armor in the game. With a commanding loss to Wisconsin, that armor is being tested.

When he’s good, Jayden Maiava is one of the best in the game. When he’s pressured, he can’t take advantage of the incredible receivers at his disposal.

Can USC get over the hump with Lincoln Riley at head coach, or will Ohio State – with a true freshman quarterback – finally eliminate the Trojans via the Buckeyes’ first win at the Coliseum since 1946?

But, yeah, USC has been disappointing this year. It has an opportunity to prove everyone wrong with the rest of its schedule, but we shall see.

Iowa (5-2, 2-2)

The Hawkeyes rebounded after getting smacked around by Ohio State by demolishing Washington. Riding high, Iowa had to beat Minnesota to keep its “Contender” status alive.

Well, it didn’t.

The Floyd of Rosedale is back in Minneapolis. Iowa is back amongst the unranked. Remember, losing to an unranked conference foe is a bad thing in nine conferences and isn’t actually a #QualityLoss.

Looking ahead, Iowa’s margin for error is non-existent. Wisconsin and Northwestern are up next. Can Kirk Ferentz make the CFP for the first time in his long career, or will the Hawkeyes fall back into Music City Bowl territory?

Eliminated

Well, that’s it. Oregon has been eliminated. The Ducks were a popular pick to be the fourth Big Ten program in four years to take home a title. As it is, losing both coordinators and one of the best quarterbacks in the nation is just too difficult to overcome.

• Michigan State (2-6, 0-5)
• Rutgers (2-5, 1-3)
• Maryland (2-5, 0-4)
• Purdue (3-4, 2-2)
• Penn State (3-4, 0-4)
• Illinois (4-3, 2-2)
• Oregon (4-3, 2-2)
• Michigan (4-3, 1-3)
• Washington (4-3, 1-3)

Full Big Ten Week 8 Schedule

• #25 Wisconsin at Iowa (12:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
• Illinois at Maryland (12:00 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Michigan at Rutgers (12:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
• Minnesota at #4 Indiana (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
• #20 Northwestern at Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET, Peacock)
• Nevada at #7 UCLA (4:15 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
• Purdue at Penn State (4:15 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
• #2 Ohio State at USC (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
• Washington at Nebraska (8:00 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
• Michigan State: Idle

More Big Ten Content

• 2026 Bowl Projections After Week Eight
• What to Expect From Penn State Post-Bye Week
• Efficiency Is Evident With Elijah Brown, Weighing the QB Decision

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