Texas vs. Ole Miss Picks, Predictions, Odds: Our Best Bets for College Football Week 8

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The No. 19 Texas Longhorns (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten) host the No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels (5-1, 3-1) in a top-20 SEC showdown on Saturday, Oct. 24 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

It has been a tough stretch for Texas, which found itself ranked No. 1 in the country as recently as two weeks ago.

Since then, though, the Longhorns have dropped two straight to rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry (27-24) and Florida (27-24). To make matters worse, Texas entered both games as a favorite of at least a touchdown.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, has righted the ship after a 52-28 blowout loss at the hands of Florida on Sept. 26. The Rebels have won two in a row, including a 31-3 dismantling of a then-No. 13 Missouri.

Despite the recent trends, Texas still enters as a -3 home favorite with the over/under set at 53.5. So, who holds the advantage in this conference clash?

We polled 11 of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let’s dive into our Texas vs. Ole Miss picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Oct. 24.

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Texas vs. Ole Miss Spread Pick

Our Staff’s Pick: Ole Miss +3

By RoadToCFB

Our Action Network staff is in agreement with Saturday’s blockbuster between Ole Miss and Texas. Seven of our 11 voters side with the visiting Rebels at +3, three would lay the points with Texas at home (-3) and one tabs this a coin-flip.

The biggest update from this game comes from Texas practice, where redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. received some first-team reps.

Starter Arch Manning has been inconsistent as a passer this season, sitting 46th in the country in QB rating, and he has committed nine turnover-worthy throws (21st-most).

Though Manning has been spectacular in his best moments (see: the second half of the Ohio State comeback), his occasional inability to drive the ball downfield has cost Texas games (see: last week against Florida).

Another hit to the Texas offense, top running back Hollywood Smothers is listed as doubtful now for Week 8. On defense, star defensive end Colin Simmons, who leads the country in sacks, won’t play due to a high ankle sprain.

Ole Miss has plenty of injury news to review, as well. Star running back Kewan Lacy was removed from the injury report this week.

The Rebels rebounded after the loss to Florida with a much-needed bye. Since then, the Rebs trounced Vanderbilt on the road (52-17) and Missouri at home (31-3).

Though out of the spotlight following Lane Kiffin’s departure, Ole Miss continues to notch impressive wins over high-quality competition.

The ingredients are there for another College Football Playoff contender: a playmaking QB comfortable in off-schedule situations, a stout defensive line and aggressive and sound-tackling second level.

Add in stars in Lacy and receiver Deuce Alexander, and Ole Miss is a force to be reckoned with.

Largely, though, this is a staff fade of the Longhorns. Back-to-back losses to a shaky Oklahoma team and Florida without its starting quarterback have fully shaken our confidence in Texas.

Texas vs. Ole Miss Over/Under Pick

Our Staff’s Pick: Under 53.5

By RoadToCFB

Our staff is also quite confident in taking under 53.5 points in this game. Blockbuster college football games have been prime for unders, like Alabama at Tennessee and Ohio State at Indiana just last week.

However, Action PRO has tabbed seven sharp moves to the over, many of which came in when this line was moved down to 51.5 and 52.5. Late-week money actually nudged this number down from 54.5 to 53.5 — not insignificant given that 55 stands as a key total.

A few factors other than the conservative blockbuster lead to an under lean.

Texas’ uncertainty at quarterback is likely chief among them, as throwing a redshirt freshman out for his first real action against Pete Golding’s defense could lead to a serious decline in production.

Currently, as -3 favorites with the total at 53.5, Texas’ team total is lined at 28.5, which would be a new high against SEC opponents this year.

For those unsure about the Longhorn defense against Trinidad Chambliss — and without Colin Simmons — perhaps a look at the team total of under 28.5 would make sense.

But this isn’t a one-man show in Austin. Texas ranks third in the country in EPA Per Play allowed, eighth in Havoc (turnovers, sacks, tackles for loss) and 13th in Success Rate allowed.

Ole Miss falls down the ladder in all defensive departments, but one could argue the opposing cast of offenses are far more efficient than what Texas has faced.

That’s not to discredit Texas’ defense in any way — it’s an elite unit, and anyone resisting that isn’t really watching — but more so to say Ole Miss’ defense is playing above what the down-to-down analytics suggest.

Against Missouri, Ole Miss looked as good as any defense.

Expect an uptempo approach from Ole Miss (23.8 seconds between plays) and a moderate tempo from Texas (25.6), but with two stonewalling defensive lines, a high tempo can turn into low efficiency very quickly.

On the road, we trust Texas’ defense more, while maintaining our distrust for the offense, especially down Hollywood Smothers.

That leads to an under lean despite sharp over action at various numbers throughout the week — most lower than what’s posted now.

Texas vs. Ole Miss Odds