Texas vs Oklahoma Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, October 10

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The Texas Longhorns take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Dallas, Texas, on Saturday, Oct. 10. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Texas is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -335. Oklahoma, meanwhile, enters as a +7.5 underdog and is +265 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 38.5 total points.

Here’s my Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10.

• Texas vs. Oklahoma Pick: Texas -7.5 or Better · Texas D/ST Anytime TD +500

My Oklahoma vs. Texas best bet is on the Longhorns to cover the spread and score a touchdown on defense or special teams. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.

Texas vs Oklahoma Odds

• Texas vs Oklahoma Spread: Texas -7.5 (-110), Oklahoma +7.5 (-110)
• Texas vs Oklahoma Over/Under: 38.5 (-114o / -106u)
• Texas vs Oklahoma Moneyline: Texas -335, Oklahoma +265

The Longhorns survived a trip to Knoxville with a low-scoring 20-17 victory over Tennessee.

While the defense has thrived under new coordinator Will Muschamp, the offense is looking for answers in a number of gaps.

Texas now sits 127th in Havoc allowed, a measurement of an offense’s ability to trim fumbles, interceptions, tackles for loss and any other offensive momentum killer.

The Longhorns rank 112th in tackles for loss allowed and have also found a bit of luck by losing only two of their eight fumbles this season.

The Horns’ inept rushing attack has generated one of the lowest rates of standard downs, ranking 115th in EPA when the offense stays on schedule.

Running back Raleek Brown did the heavy lifting in the win over the Volunteers, posting two touchdowns and 67 rushing yards. The potential return of fellow back Hollywood Smothers would boost the backfield, but the offensive line sits outside the top 100 in Line Yards .

There are concerns in the passing game as well, with future NFL wide receiver Cam Coleman receiving just two targets in the victory over Tennessee.

Wide receivers Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V have more targets than the Auburn transfer. That has played a role in the passing attack led by quarterback Arch Manning ranking outside the top 60 in EPA.

The defense has saved this team in its wins over Ohio State and Tennessee. Muschamp’s nickel defense owns a top-25 pass rush despite a mid-FBS blitz rate.

A top-20 rank in Havoc can be attributed to the EDGE position, as Colin Simmons and Lance Jackson have combined for 32 pressures. Simmons alone has eight sacks on the season and ranks as the third-most disruptive EDGE in FBS, per PFF’s pass-rush productivity rankings.

Texas has been even better when an opponent drive crossed the Longhorns’ 40-yard line, as 21 scoring opportunities have produced an average of 2.2 points .

The Oklahoma defense is in desperate need of health entering the Red River Rivalry.

Key players at all three levels sat out against Georgia, as the Bulldogs rang the Sooners defense up for 41 points with a ground attack that averaged 5.3 yards per play.

Head coach Brent Venables fields a defense that remains in the top 10 from a Success Rate and EPA perspective, but the SEC Availability Report will be crucial for the Sooners.

Injuries haven’t played as big a role on offense, but Oklahoma’s lack of ball discipline has plagued it all season.

The Sooners rank 128th in Havoc allowed, with numerous lowlight reels focusing on quarterback John Mateer. The fifth-year senior had three crushing fumbles in Week 4, resulting in a number of Georgia scores.

OU’s offense has recorded six fumbles, and all six were recovered by the defense.

When Havoc hasn’t been present, the Sooners have been one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation, with bottom-15 ranks in Success Rate, EPA, Stuff Rate and Line Yards .

Even worse are the cumulative numbers on what has stalled the offensive possessions, as Oklahoma has ended drives with six fumbles, four interceptions, three fourth-down turnovers and two missed field goals.

Georgia gashed the Oklahoma defense with a 56% Success Rate on 25 rushing attempts.

The Bulldogs played twice as many offensive snaps in standard downs as passing downs, raising the question as to what run concepts the Sooners struggle to defend.

Georgia attacked Oklahoma with an even mix of rushing attempts using inside zone and man-blocking schemes. Texas has been potent with both run concepts, posting a 57% Success Rate with man blocking and 63% with inside zone .

The numbers are grim when it comes to Oklahoma scoring against the Longhorns. Still, there’s an edge on the projected total of 45, considering the market has sunk closer to the key number of 38.

An over in this game could come down to field position through turnovers and special teams touchdowns . Two of the best returners in college football will field punts in this defensive game, as Isaiah Sategna III and Ryan Niblett each have two career return touchdowns.

The availability report update for Oklahoma confirmed a couple of key players who will miss the Red River Rivalry.

Wide receiver Trell Harris won’t be an option for Mateer in the passing game, and starting left guard Eddy Pierre-Louis is questionable.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings have the Longhorns favored by 11, giving the edge to any of the dead numbers that reside in the market between 7 and 10.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has owned Oklahoma’s Brent Venables in this series the past two seasons, outscoring the Sooners by a total of 48 points .

Special teams and potential defensive scores are always at a higher probability in the Red River Rivalry, and 2026 should see nothing less.

Pick: Texas -7.5 or Better · Texas D/ST Anytime TD +500