Texas vs. Missouri prediction, odds, pick for SEC clash in Week 10

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The No. 7 Texas Longhorns visit the No. 18 Missouri Tigers on Saturday, November 7, in an SEC game with College Football Playoff stakes. Both teams are 6-2 and have two losses. Kickoff at Memorial Stadium in Columbia is scheduled for noon ET on ESPN.

The matchup puts Arch Manning and a banged-up Texas roster against a Missouri team that is unbeaten at home. Texas is the slim favorite, but injuries, a reshuffled offensive line and Missouri’s home record make this closer than the spread suggests.

Texas vs. Missouri Odds

Texas: -2.5

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Missouri: +2.5

Over: 42.5

Under: 42.5

Texas vs. Missouri Key Injuries

Texas has the longer list. Left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon, and running back Hollywood Smothers is unlikely to play. Receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman are dealing with shoulder injuries, and edge rusher Colin Simmons is still recovering from an ankle injury.

Cornerback Graceson Littleton could miss the rest of the regular season, and Kade Phillips has been reported with a groin injury. Coach Steve Sarkisian refuses to discuss injuries and has said his team will be “undermanned” in Columbia. These are early-week reports, not final game designations.

Missouri’s first SEC availability report of the week added no new names.

Texas Betting Trends

Texas is 3-5 against the spread this season, including 3-4 as a favorite of 2.5 points or more. Four of its eight games have gone over the total.

Manning has thrown for 1,727 yards and 15 touchdowns while completing 64.8% of his passes. He averaged more than 11 yards per completion in his most recent game, which was one of his most efficient passing performances of the season.

With Smothers out, Raleek Brown is the lead back with 452 yards and five touchdowns. The bigger problem is protection. Texas has allowed 20 sacks in five SEC games, and its offensive line has two tackles in new positions, Andre Cojoe at right tackle and Melvin Siani at left.

On the other side, Texas leads the nation in yards per play allowed.

Missouri Betting Trends

Missouri is 4-4 against the spread, with three of its eight games going over. It is 1-2 against the spread as an underdog of 2.5 points or more.

Coach Eli Drinkwitz is 11-4 against the spread as a home underdog, and Missouri is 226-164-11 against the spread in comparable home games between ranked teams. Sarkisian is 22-13 against the spread when fading him on the road, per Slim Sports.

Quarterback Austin Simmons has made big throws, including in the Week 9 win over Arkansas. Running back Jamal Roberts ran over Florida, and Ahmad Hardy is slowly returning. Missouri’s defense has not allowed a quarterback to complete more than 60% of his passes since Florida’s Aaron Philo.

The weak spot is the pass rush. Missouri has just 11 sacks in league play, 12th in the SEC. But Missouri also allows 260.4 passing yards per game in conference play, so Manning could find space if his line holds.

Keys to the Matchup

Texas must protect Manning. A reshuffled line against a Missouri front that is not a strong pass-rushing unit gives the Longhorns a chance, but an early sack or two could force Texas into long-yardage situations.

Missouri needs to run the ball and keep the game low-scoring. Roberts and Hardy give the Tigers a way to control the clock and keep Texas’ defense on the field.

Colin Simmons’ return would be a major boost for Texas. Covers expects him to play. Without him, Missouri’s offense should have an easier time moving the ball.

Texas vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

This feels like a trap game for Texas, and the numbers back that up. Missouri is unbeaten at home and Texas is thin at several key positions.

Texas’ defense should keep it in the game, and the Longhorns could grind out a narrow win. But with that offensive line, taking the points is the better value.

Prediction: Texas 23, Missouri 21

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