Texas vs. LSU prediction, odds, pick for SEC clash in Week 11

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Steve Sarkisian and his squad make their way to Louisiana, as the No. 6 Texas Longhorns visit the No. 21 LSU Tigers on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Texas-LSU prediction and pick.

Texas enters the game sitting at 7-2. They dominated Texas State in the opening 59-7 win, stunned then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23, blew out UTSA 30-6, and beat then-No. 14 Tennessee 20-17. This allowed them to take over the top spot in the AP Top 25. However, their perfect start came to an end after losing to Oklahoma and Florida by 27-24 scores, falling in the AP rankings. They have since recovered with three consecutive quality wins over then-No. 7 Ole Miss (34-27), Mississippi State (31-3) and then-No. 18 Missouri (34-20).

Meanwhile, LSU is 6-3 at the moment. They opened the season with a dominant 51-10 win over the Clemson Tigers. After a 45-14 blowout win over Louisiana Tech, they took a step back after falling 32-24 to the then-No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels. They bounced back with wins over No. 23 Texas A&M 35-6 and McNeese (63-14) before falling down to earth with a 35-34 upset loss to the Kentucky Wildcats. The squad recovered with dominant victories over then-No. 16 Mississippi State (31-0) and Auburn (38-17), but lost to the Alabama Crimson Tide by a 31-13 score.

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Texas and LSU share a long history of playing against each other in football. The former boasts 9 wins over LSU’s eight victories while they drew once. LSU took the win back in September 2019, winning the game 45-38. The Tigers have won three of the last five matchups going back to 1953.

Odds provided by BetOnline

Texas vs. LSU Odds

Texas: +4 (+110)

LSU: -4 (-110)

Over: 46.5 (-110)

Under: 46.5 (-110)

Texas vs. LSU Key Injuries

Texas- DL Colin Simmons (Questionable), RB Hollywood Smothers (Questionable), WR Daylen McCutcheon (Questionable), OG Tyler Goosby (Out), DL Zion Williams (Questionable), WR Kaliq Lockett (Questionable)

LSU- TE Trey’Dez Green (Questionable), S Dashawn Spears (Out), RB Raycine Guillory Jr. (Questionable), WR Phillip Wright III (Out), WR Tre’ Brown (Questionable), LB Tylen Singleton (Questionable)

Texas vs. LSU Betting Trends

• Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1 in Longhorns last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
• Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Keys to Texas vs. LSU footballmatchup

The Longhorns have returned to stable ground as they seek a place in the College Football Playoffs. They continue to garner serious attention with the big games on their schedule, needing to execute in crucial moments as Texas depends on winning out the rest of the regular season. Arch Manning has persevered through the ups and downs so far, completing 168 out of 254 passes for 2,024 yards and 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions while rushing 76 times for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Raleek Brown leads the run game with 109 carries for 537 yards and six touchdowns while catching 18 passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan Wingo tops receivers with 42 catches for 523 yards and four touchdowns, while Emmett Mosley V has 30 receptions for 504 yards and a touchdown.

Texas needs its defense to be sharp, especially when facing an explosive attack like the Tigers. Jelani McDonald looks to play a crucial role, leading the team in tackles with 67 while having four pass deflections and an interception. Rasheem Biles comes next with 66 tackles, four sacks, three interceptions, three pass deflections, and three forced fumbles. Colin Simmons will be active with his pass-rushing, boasting 25 tackles, 10.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. As for the secondary, Graceson Littleton leads with five pass deflections and an interception and Bo Mascoe has eight pass deflections to his name.

The Tigers possess one of the best offenses in the country, shining as a fierce squad in Year 1 under Lane Kiffin so far. They rank fifth in passing offense with 324.9 yards per game, 42nd in rushing offense with 179.2 yards per game, and 18th in scoring offense with 37.1 points per contest. Sam Leavitt has completed 71% of his passes this season for 2,553 yards and 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also has rushed 87 times for 340 yards and eight scores. Dilin Jones leads the run game with 166 carries to his name for 713 yards and seven touchdowns. Jackson Harris leads receivers with 47 catches for 800 yards and seven touchdowns, while Winston Watkins Jr. has 39 receptions for 498 yards and two touchdowns.

LSU also shines as an elite squad on the defensive side of the ball. They rank sixth in yards allowed with 261.1 yards per game, 17th in passing defense with 176.4 yards per game, seventh in rushing defense with 84.7 yards per game, and 19th in scoring defense with 17.7 points per contest. TJ Dottery leads the unit with 68 tackles, three pass deflections and two forced fumbles. Princewill Umanmielen has been remarkable as a pass rusher with 35 tackles and 8.5 sacks, while Jordan Ross has a pick-6 touchdown to his name with 27 tackles and five sacks to go with it.

Texas vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

This matchup between Texas and LSU stands out as an intriguing matchup. Both teams are in real need of more ranked wins to have a bid for the College Football Playoffs. Texas has solid momentum with three consecutive wins, while the Tigers hope to shake off their lapses of judgement as the SEC looks forward to this pivotal matchup in SEC action. LSU gets the win in this one and covers, while the over also hits.

Final Texas vs. LSU Prediction and Pick: LSU -4 (-110) and over 46.5 (-110)

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