Texas in CFP trouble? Five college football overreactions from Week 6

We have a shade over half of the college football season still to be played. And, even though every week of results alters the standings and scrambles the picture of what we think we know, we can’t help but draw grand conclusions. We’re fans. It’s what we do.

There were plenty of outcomes that prompted strong responses in Week 6. As always, we’re here to determine which have basis in reality and which are true overreactions. We begin, as it often the case, in the conference of allegedly enhanced meaningfulness, where two nail-biting finishes might have redefined the fortunes of several programs.

Texas is cooked in CFP race

Not long ago in this space, we examined the Longhorns’ path to the SEC championship game. Now that they’ve lost one of the games that on paper should have been in the win column, a berth in the 12-team playoff isn’t a given.

The next five weeks will tell the tale for Texas, starting next Saturday against an equally desperate Florida squad that has dropped two in a row in decisive fashion. The ‘Horns get to stay home for their next two contests after that against the league’s Magnolia State representatives, but neither Ole Miss nor Mississippi State will be easy opponents. After that, Texas has back-to-back road dates at Missouri and LSU, both of which will be trying to secure quality results themselves.

The good news for Texas is the Ohio State win could be a difference maker should the committee be comparing resumes when December arrives. A 9-3 record with the Longhorns’ schedule would likely be good enough to get in, but that means finding three wins in those next five games. Can they do it? Sure, but they have a lot to clean up in order to make it happen.

Alabama is not back

Actually, the Crimson Tide are probably fine. With no teams other than Georgia unscathed in the conference, Alabama’s narrow loss to the Bulldogs won’t damage the body of work.

That is, of course, as long as the Tide handle the remainder of what looks to be a manageable slate compared to other contenders. Yes, we know Auburn is a rivalry game and weird things can happen, and there are road dates at Tennessee and LSU. But there’s no Ole Miss and no Texas on the docket.

Ten wins would all but guarantee a playoff bid, and 11 would probably earn the Tide a rematch with the Bulldogs in Atlanta that would give the winner a first-round bye. Tide faithful are understandably chagrinned with Saturday’s ending, but the overall outlook for the team hasn’t appreciably changed.

UCLA is home free

As we’ve seen in the above examples, not all conference schedules are created equal in the era of league expansion. The same is true of the Big Ten, where UCLA has emerged as a dark horse contender to match the recent rags-to-riches story authored by Indiana. Heck, the Bruins even followed the playbook of hiring the same school’s successful coach (more on them below).

With their win at Oregon secured, the Bruins have an inside lane to the Big Ten title game, with neither Ohio State nor Indiana on the regular-season schedule. UCLA’s two remaining trips east are to Minnesota and Michigan, both formidable on their respective home fields but hardly juggernauts this year. Next week’s home date with an improved Wisconsin squad isn’t a guaranteed victory either, and of course there’s the crosstown showdown with Southern California in the finale. Overconfidence shouldn’t be an issue for the upstart Bruins, but thinking big isn’t out of place either.

Luck of the Irish?

Another of Notre Dame’s early opponents might have done them a favor this week. North Carolina nudged above the .500 mark by defeating Pittsburgh, providing a slight uptick for the Fighting Irish’s schedule strength that hasn’t had much meat thus far. The aforementioned Wisconsin Badgers have done them a similar favor so far.

Will details like that matter? We won’t know for sure until Notre Dame embarks on the back half of its schedule, and that begins in earnest next week at Brigham Young. That contest and November tilts with Miami and SMU will determine how much scrutiny the resume will receive.

James Madison is going back to the playoff

The Dukes keep finding ways to win, despite having to find new coaches on a regular basis. The Billy Napier era following Curt Cignetti and Bob Chesney is off to a great start. After eking out a three-point win at Georgia Southern Saturday night, they now stand as the last unbeaten squad from the Group of Six conferences.

Of course, future close calls might not go JMU’s way, and even if the Dukes run the table the Sun Belt champion might not be deemed playoff worthy given the lack of strength in the league. Last year's team benefitted from Duke winning the ACC that opened up an additional spot for a conference champion. It may not happen this season. But their fans are certainly allowed to enjoy the ride.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Texas in CFP trouble? Five college football overreactions from Week 6