Teams to lose to unranked opponent and make CFP: What Oregon stumble at OSU means for Ducks' playoff chances

Teams to lose to unranked opponent and make CFP: What Oregon stumble at OSU means for Ducks' playoff chances originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Oregon's path back to the College Football Playoff just got a whole lot murkier.

After struggling in the first half against Boise State in Week 1, the Ducks have now let a full game slip away against an unranked opponent in Week 2, dropping Saturday's matchup against Oklahoma State, 39-31

Dan Lanning's squad, through two games that should have likely been straightforward wins, has already taken a serious hit to its CFP chances. But given that it's only Week 2, it's not impossible for Oregon to turn its outlook around — the Ducks will look to join a surprisingly extensive list of teams to overcome a loss to an unranked opponent and still make the 12-team CFP.

Here's a look at the history of teams over the last two years to be upset by an unranked opponent, but still go on a run to the playoff.

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Teams to lose to unranked opponent and make CFP

If Oregon wants some hope coming off its disappointment vs. Oklahoma State, it can turn to a total of 14 instances in the 12-team CFP era — the last two seasons — where a team that eventually made the playoff field lost to an unranked opponent.

Considering the Ducks' status as a top-10 ranked team entering Week 2, the most comparable losses of that category include No. 4 Tennessee's loss to Arkansas in October 2024, No. 2 Ohio State's loss to Michigan in November 2024, and No. 5 Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois in September 2024.

Even in 2025, a team that eventually made the national championship, Miami, lost two games to opponents who were unranked at the time: Louisville and SMU.

In the 12-team era, it's surprisingly easy for a team to bounce back from an ugly early-season loss on its schedule. But the Ducks will have to do the harder part now by actually putting their struggles in the past.

Here's a look at the list of teams in 2024 and 2025 to make the playoff despite losses to an unranked opponent:

*Based on AP Poll rankings at time of game

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Can Oregon still make CFP?

For a team with title aspirations entering the season, Oregon's narrow win over Boise State and loss to Oklahoma State certainly won't bode well for its CFP chances. But teams have likely overcome worse scenarios.

The Ducks now have far less wiggle room, though. They have dates with three ranked Big Ten teams remaining (USC, Ohio State, Washington) while UCLA and Michigan will likely be competitive opponents as well. Anything beyond two losses — and perhaps even one — in those games would effectively end Oregon's playoff chances. On the other hand, a win over Ohio State would likely carry a ton of weight later on.

It's not over for Lanning's unit by any means, but pressure is undoubtedly mounting early for Oregon.

Oregon remaining schedule

Here's a look at Oregon's remaining games: