Stock Up, Stock Down (10.27.26)

STOCK UP

Parity

What a whacky college football season it’s been. We already had tons of upsets heading into the weekend, and we had another batch ready to go. No. 2 BYU loses to UCF. No. 8 Texas Tech goes down to Cincinnati. No. 11 Tennessee, a week after beating Alabama, losing to South Carolina. No. 15 Iowa lost to Minnesota. I mean, we are getting multiple unranked-versus-ranked upsets every weekend. We have just 3 undefeated teams left: Miami, Utah, and UCLA. Last year this time, we had 5. Two years, we had 9. Three years ago, 8 teams.

I don’t know if this is necessarily a good thing or a bad thing, to be frank. I think one of the big draws of college football was how it was different from the NFL. The allure wasn’t necessarily parity on a game-to-game level but an overarching story of teams quest for perfection/a title. Like sure, the 2007 season which featured so many upsets was awesome, but I also think back to the 2005 season when USC and Texas went wire-to-wire as No. 1 and No. 2 and they had this collision course with the Rose Bowl being the main event. That, in its own college football way, was awesome too despite the lack of “parity.”

I suppose we’ll see where things go. Again, I am not saying parity is bad, but it feels like a different experience than what college football has always been and I’m curious how this all plays into the 24-team CFP expansion as well.

Jesse Legree

If you haven’t been paying attention to Oregon State, you are missing out on one of the coolest college football stories of the year. The Beavers really got the short-end of the stick when it came to conference realignment, being one of two Pac-12 teams that did not get scooped up by the B1G, Big 12, or ACC. They had to settle for the *new* Pac-12 conference, which is essentially a souped up Mountain West and thus not a Power 4 conference.

Despite the step down in conference pedigree, first-year head coach JaMarcus Shephard has things humming in Corvallis, with the Beavers off to a 5-2 start and a big part of that is true freshman wide receiver Jesse Legree. Originally from Baltimore, the 5-foot-10, 172-pound Legree was a late bloomer as a prospect, and really spent most of his recruitment as a cornerback recruit. It’s safe to say he’s found a home at wide receiver though, as Legree has 46 receptions for 1,040 yards and 14 touchdowns in just 7 games.

As you could imagine in this day-in-age in college football, the response to Legree’s breakout season wasn’t “Oh that’s cool!” it was “Oh, where is he going to transfer to next season?” But to his credit, Legree shut down any and all noise during the bye week, having a “decision day” at his high school where he pledged that he’d be back with the Beavs next season.

While this is inherently a good story, I’m curious what happens if JaMarcus Shephard looks around for a better job. Shephard has ties across the country, having coached at Purdue, Western Kentucky, Alabama, Washington, etc. so geographically he’s going to be a fit at just about any opening. I like to think this story ends with Shephard turning down overtures from other schools, but Oregon State is likely going to have to back up the brinks truck and I don’t know if the new Pac-12 money is going to be able to compete with P4 conference head coach salaries. Currently, Shephard makes $1.6M per season. For comparison, the fired P4 head coach made $6.4M (Mike Locksley), $6.3M (Dave Doeren), and around $4.7M (Dave Aranda) — that’s just a different playing field.

STOCK DOWN

Stadium Attendance

Millions and millions of people are watching college football on TV, but the in-game experience seems to be a problem with less and less fans attending the actual games. There was an article from The Athletic about the rising costs of going to Penn State games, but this is a problem nationwide and it’s shown in sparse attendance.

Wisconsin:

UCLA:

Mississippi State:

Arizona:

Arizona State:

TCU:

Louisiana Tech:

I understand some of these are programs going through a downswing (TCU, Miss. St., ASU, etc.) but Wisconsin was hosting a ranked USC team for a primetime kick. Arizona is ranked for the first time since the Jedd Fisch tenure. UCLA is in the top 10!

Perhaps this is my Old Man Boomer take, but it just feels like the pomp-and-circumstance of attending a college football game isn’t what it was. So despite people like Stewart Mandel pointing to TV ratings as proof the sport isn’t broken, I see this photos and think maybe we’ve lost the plot on what is healthy for the game. But hey, if you put a rollercoaster in Yosemite, it’d make Yosemite more money, and “more money” is how we judge things.

Lincoln Riley

The Lincoln Riley hot seat was reprieved for a few weeks after wins against Washington and Penn State, but that bad boy fired back up on Saturday after USC’s lost to Wisconsin 24-7. While 6-2 doesn’t sound so bad for the Trojans, it’s what they have left on the schedule that’s worrying: Ohio State, at Indiana, Maryland, and at UCLA. Optimistically speaking, that seems like 2-2 at best? So you’re looking at an 8-4 or 7-5 season, fresh off spending a ton of money in the portal and on the No. 1 recruiting class in 2025.

Let’s say it’s 8-4. That would leave Riley with the following records at the end of the season the last 4 years: 8-5, 7-6, 9-4, and 8-4. That is not drastically different from Dave Doeren the last 4 years at NC State — 8-5, 9-4, 6-7, 8-5 — and he just got fired by the Wolfpack.

While there’s no obvious candidate out there to replace Riley and he might have a buyout up to $70 million, I just can’t imagine USC will want to run it back with Riley for a 6th season. Perhaps the two sides find an out that fits for each other? We just saw the Baylor job open up, and it’s becoming increasingly likely TCU will part with Sonny Dykes. Maybe Riley looks to go back to his Texas roots? Heck, maybe Cody Campbell throws a tantrum loud enough to get Joey Maguire fired and Riley goes back to his alma mater?

Whatever the potential solution on that front, I just don’t see Riley back at USC after this season.