SEC Basketball Preview: Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers

Rick Barnes had to do a hard reset on his roster last season, importing far more talent via the transfer portal and freshman recruiting than he did in recent previous cycles. But the Volunteers were coming off their best two seasons in program history, so the expectations were to keep the train rolling, no matter who the bodies were in the jerseys.

Replacing Zakai Zeigler was impossible, so Barnes didn’t try. He went in almost the opposite direction with Ja’Kobi Gillespie, one of the better offensive point guards in the country. Gillespie delivered. He averaged over 18 points and with future NBA Lottery pick Nate Ament, figured into about 43% of the points scored.

With enough offense on the floor, the question was whether Tennessee would be able to defend as well as they had with Ziegler. After five seasons of having one of the 5 best defenses in the country, Tennessee slipped to merely 14th. They were good, but not quite elite. But despite their slip, the NCAA Tournament proved to be where the Vols proved themselves again. They beat Miami of Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa State before succumbing to the eventual national champion Michigan Wolverines in the Elite 8.

The last loss was by a wide margin, but Tennessee had a chance to bring a lot of their talent back. Then they didn’t do it! It’s almost an all new roster, and big pivot for Rick Barnes in 40 years of coaching.

Previous SEC Previews:

• 4. Missouri Tigers, 12-6
• 5. Arkansas Razorbacks, 11-7
• 6. Alabama Crimson Tide, 10-8
• 7. Vanderbilt Commodores, 10-8
• 8. Kentucky Wildcats, 10-8
• 9. Texas A&M Aggies, 9-9
• 10. Oklahoma Sooner, 9-9
• 11. LSU Tigers, 7-11
• 12. Auburn Tigers, 7-11
• 13. Georgia Bulldogs: 6-12
• 14. South Carolina Gamecocks, 4-14
• 15. Ole Miss Rebels: 4-14
• 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-15

Tennessee Volunteers

• Last season: 25 – 12 (11-7 in conference) #14 overall
• The Masses Prediction: 3rd in conference
• SEC Media Pick: 4th in conference
• Analytics Average: 4th in conference, 15th overall

HEAD COACH: Rick Barnes | 12th Season, 257-121

Twelve years at Tennessee, 17 years at Texas, four years at Clemson, six at Providence, and one at George Mason. That’s 40 years on the sideline as the head coach. He’s won a career 861 games, and he’s second on the active list behind John Calipari, and six wins ahead of Bill Self. There’s no question Barnes is an all time great in the college coaching game.

What’s been most impressive about Barnes is how easily he has seemed to pivot to a new era of college basketball while so many other coaching greats have checked out. Barnes is 72 years old, Dana Altman just retired at 68, Bruce Pearl retired at 66, there are a lot of coaching greats who have stepped aside in recent seasons. But Barnes looks as energized as ever, and is thriving with the new rules. Barnes completely rebuilt his roster in the offseason with a hefty war chest of NIL money, and an eye to fix what the Vols have struggled with in recent seasons.

But what he’s done recently is guide UT to the top of the league more often than not. He’s won the league outright twice, and won the SEC Tournament in 2022. They haven’t finished lower than 4th, or tied for 4th, every year since 2020, and were 1st or 2nd the two years before that. Basically every year for the past 9 seasons, save one, they’ve been a top 4 team. They look about a lock to be there again this year.

He won’t coach forever, and the retirement talk has started to spring up more often. It’s hard to see Barnes hanging things up any time soon, however.

The Volunteers are well known for being one of the best basketball programs who have yet to make a Final Four. Barnes has had them on the doorstep three times in the last three season. Prior to that the program had been to just one Elite 8 (in 2010 under Bruce Pearl). The only program with more NCAA Tournament appearances without a Final Four is the BYU Cougars.

But the success of Barnes at UT is more than just whether or not the team has made a Final Four. They haven’t broken through, but he’s stacked enough high seeds to give them a chance every year.

LOST PRODUCTION

15th in % minutes, 90.49% | 15th in % points, 92.60% | 14th in possessions, 92.22%

It’s remarkable to see Tennessee return so little production. And so much of it was through voluntary negotiations, where the Vols let most of the team walk. Opting for more expensive options in the transfer portal. The big names gone are Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament. Together those two were the most targeted offensively for the Vols last year. And both bounced for professional opportunities with Gillespie drafted in the second round, and Ament going to the Bucks after being drafted in the tail end of the lottery.

The only other double digit scorer on the roster last year was the oft injured JP Estrella, who is now a Michigan Wolverine. Jaylen Carey transferred to Missouri, Bishop Boswell went to Maryland, Amari Evans went to Texas, and Cade Phillips landed at Texas A&M. So Barnes will get to see much of his old roster in SEC play this year.

Tennessee returns just two players who saw any real minutes last season. DeWayne Brown played in 35 of the 37 available games last year, but his minutes yo-yo’d a bit depending on the availability of Estrella. He’s a big burly forward who can defend and rebound, but wasn’t asked to perform offense much. He attempted just 7 jump shots, everything else was at the rim.

He’s re-joined on the roster by Troy Henderson, a lightly used freshman guard who played more than 8 minutes just one time in SEC play, and was left on the bench for 9 games all season long.

Clearly this build is going to be about what’s come in via the transfer portal, and there’s a LOT of talented new comers. The biggest highlight is likely Juke Harris. Last year the 6’7 wing scored 21 points per game for Wake Forest, and was one of the most coveted players in the portal. He jumped his scoring significantly from his freshman season, and is reliant on his jump shot both in the mid and long range. The goals this season are to improve his handle and three point shooting.

Most of the rest of the depth and rotation was built through the portal as well. The backcourt will be stocked with VCU transfer scoring guard Terrence Hill, Jr., and California transfer point guard Dai Dai Ames. Both were high scoring guards for their teams last year with Hill being a lightning scorer off the bench for VCU. Most viewers will remember his 34 points on 7 of 10 shooting from three point range, as he led a big comeback over North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament last spring. But Hill’s scoring is what set him apart well before that, in Atlantic 10 play there were just three games where he didn’t score double figures.

Ames is more well traveled, having started at Kansas State, then transferring to Virginia before ending up at Cal last season. He got a little more usage on the ball last season for the Golden Bears, before being used more off the ball at Virginia.

They’ve also added versatile forward Jalen Haralson, a former 5-star recruit who was super high usage at Notre Dame last year. He’s capable of being a playmaker, but his lack of shooting has held him back. At his best, Haralson is a physical wing who can attack in space and finish around the rim.

Barnes has a lot of pieces, but how he deploys them sure is in question. The Vols signed Vanderbilt transfer Jalen Washington to help with their interior defense and rebounding, but Washington is one of many 5th year players trying to get eligible. With or without him, Loyola Chicago transfer Miles Rubin might be the starter at the five. Rubin is a nimble 6’10 big man who isn’t going to stretch the floor, but he’s a good athlete who can use either hand around the rim, and is one of the better rebounders in the portal.

Tennessee needs Washington to get eligible because the interior options dry up after Rubin, and Brown. Christian Fermin wasn’t a difference maker in the post for two years at VCU, before getting hurt last year, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll be a big factor in the SEC. Maybe Kennesaw State combo forward Braeden Lue can help at the 4 spot?

Terrence Hill is very much a scoring guard, he can handle the ball but having Ames or even Haralson handle the ball and bring it up the floor makes more sense to free up Hill off screens. Troy Henderson didn’t play much last season, but Barnes does tend to give multiple year players more looks, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Henderson push Ames at the starting point guard spot.

Christopher Washington, Jr. and Ralph Scott were both top 100 wings, but with Juke on the floor it’s going to be hard to get on the floor for both players. Tyler Lundblade is a top tier shooter from Belmont. If he’s healthy — he had offseason surgery on his back — he could factor into the wing rotation, and even push Hill into more primary handler minutes.

Tennessee has been pretty aggressive in scheduling under Barnes, especially in more recent seasons. Seven quad 4 games does feel like a higher amount than usual, but there’s only one program projected to be sub-300. They also have the rare home game against a high major when top 10 Michigan State rolls into town for an early test. Then the Vols will head to Purdue for a road game at Mackey Arena in mid December. Purdue might be a step back from what they’ve been the last four or five seasons, but winning in Mackey is not easy for anyone.

Like a lot of teams, Tennessee is heading to the Player’s Era where they’re in one of the 16 team brackets where the winner of the 16 team bracket moves on to play the other winner. If they beat Maryland in game one, there are some big opponents that could be waiting, like Louisville, Texas Tech or St. John’s. Also they should be careful with Florida State, the Seminoles were their ACC-SEC Challenge draw and they’ve got the potential to be very good despite their preseason ranking.

There’s a bit of a switch-up for the home and homes and UT gets Missouri, on top of Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Dennis Gates’s teams have given Rick Barnes fits, as he’s 2-3 against Gates since he started at Mizzou. Barnes has also struggled with Kentucky, having only beaten Mark Pope once in five tries. And he’s won just twice in his last seven against UK. After owning the Vandy rivalry for most of his time in Knoxville, Mark Byington’s squad has won the last two, and three of the last five.

The two home games to watch out for are Florida and Alabama, it’s good Tennessee has them at home. There isn’t a road game, maybe other than Texas, they shouldn’t expect to win. The goal here should be 8-1 at home, and at least 4 wins on the road.

THE RULING

Much like Alabama and Nate Oats, certain coaches have earned a bit of leeway with their roster.

Rick Barnes build here is not perfect. The interior is going to be very different, they’re going to be far less reliant on post production, but the bet here is that Barnes will always find a way to field a quality defense. The difference with this unit is the offense should come easier, and it can come from a variety of sources.

In recent seasons, Barnes has seen his teams over-reliant on one or two options. Ament and Gillespie last year, Chaz Lanier two years ago, Dalton Knecht three years ago. And all this stemmed from his team four years ago which was awful offensively, despite having the best defense in the country.

Seven of the Nine transfers averaged at least double digits in points, and five of them were over 15 points per game, with Juke Harris averaging over 20.

With their style of play, it should be Hill and Harris as the two primary options, but there are others who you’re okay with taking shots. And that hasn’t always been the case in Knoxville.

They’re going to have to defend though. They’re going to have to get stops, and rebound. And it might have to be gang rebounding. Last season Tennessee was the best team in the country at collecting their own misses. Jaylen Carey, JP Estrella, and Felix Okpara were all nationally ranked offensive rebounders. With the first two being in the top 10 for offensive rebounding rate. Miles Rubin is a good rebounder, as is Jalen Washington, but not at the level Carey, Estrella and Okpara were.

Then there’s the Jalen Haralson question. Haralson is immensely talented, he’s great with the ball in his hands, and he’s got soft touch when finishing around the rim. But how does he fit with the rest of the offense? Juke sucks up a lot of possessions, as does Hill. Ames is used to getting his shots, but Haralson might be the best overall college player, provided he can take another step forward with his game this season.

There’s no question this is a talented offensive group. They’re a bit light on the interior, which could spell trouble with the size and depth of the rest of the SEC. Because without quality size on the inside, it can be difficult to get stops. And that’s something Tennessee is used to doing. But at this point, trust Rick Barnes will figure it out.

My Results: Tennessee Volunteers — 3rd in Conference, 13-5

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections, and national media outlet predictions.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be, we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.