SEC Basketball Preview: John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks

The revival of John Calipari has happened in Razorback Red. After his first season, there were still some question marks as the Razorbacks stumbled through the season, but played well enough down the stretch to make the NCAA Tournament, where they got a favorable draw and went to the Sweet 16.

A year ago most people looked at the roster Cal had built and thought the same thing: this looks like a Cal roster. Arkansas should be good. And they were really good.

And they were! They lost three games in the non-conference, but all were top 10 teams. Early on, it was clear things on offense would run through Darius Acuff, Jr. Acuff was a 5-star top 10 prospect and immediately looked like a lottery pick. He had a great side kick in explosive scorer Meleek Thomas. The combination of those two made the Razorback offense one of the nations best. Acuff rarely turned the ball over, and was good enough to get his teammates involved, causing the Hogs to score a lot of points.

The defense was sometimes optional, but that didn’t matter much when they were scorching the nets. And the offense was good enough to carry them to back to back Sweet 16s, and an SEC Tournament championship. But nearly everyone from that team is gone, and Cal is doing what he did a lot at Kentucky, remaking his roster with a lot of talented youth.

Previous SEC Previews:

• 6. Alabama Crimson Tide, 10-8
• 7. Vanderbilt Commodores, 10-8
• 8. Kentucky Wildcats, 10-8
• 9. Texas A&M Aggies, 9-9
• 10. Oklahoma Sooner, 9-9
• 11. LSU Tigers, 7-11
• 12. Auburn Tigers, 7-11
• 13. Georgia Bulldogs: 6-12
• 14. South Carolina Gamecocks, 4-14
• 15. Ole Miss Rebels: 4-14
• 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-15

Arkansas Razorbacks

• Last season: 28 – 9 (13-5 in conference) #18
• The Masses Prediction: 4th in conference
• SEC Media Pick: coming soon!
• Analytics Average: 5th in conference, 19th overall

HEAD COACH: John Calipari | 3rd Season, 50-23

It’s hard to believe I’ve been writing previews for SEC basketball since the 2014-15 season, and the only coach I’ve written about in each and every season is John Calipari.

At this point the main doesn’t need an introduction. He’s perhaps the most well known college basketball coach, having been the face of UMass basketball in the 90s, then resurrecting Memphis basketball, before dominating the SEC for years at Kentucky. He’s already in the Hall of Fame, and is the active leader for wins in Division 1 basketball with 905 (Rick Barnes and Bill Self are the only active coaches with more than 800).

After languishing, by Kentucky standards, in the last 3-4 years of his tenure, he seems a bit revived in Fayetteville. His press conferences have a little more life, and his teams have been playing with a little more flair. But there’s no doubt the game is different for him at Arkansas than it was Kentucky. He’s leaned into what he’s always done well, recruiting. Cal hasn’t been afraid to be the youngest team in the country, and last year he put the ball in the hands of two talented freshmen, and was rewarded for it.

This year he’s going to try doing the same thing.

It’s wild that Arkansas has never finished higher than 18th in KenPom. They’ve done it three times. But in the last six seasons they’ve made the Sweet 16 five times and advanced to the Elite 8 twice. Arkansas’ post season success has outpaced their in season production. The question then becomes can the Hogs be better efficiency-wise than 18th? And can they break through to the Final Four?

LOST PRODUCTION

12th in % minutes, 84.27% | 13th in % points, 85.83% | 13th in % possessions, 85.77%

Arkansas is only returning one player from their rotation last season, and even that guy left some doubt right up until the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline passed. But Acuff and Thomas stayed in the draft, with Acuff going 7th to the Sacremento Kings, and Thomas going 34th overall to Sacremento (but was quickly traded to Cleveland). Trevon Brazile was also drafted in the second round after spending the last 4 seasons in Fayetteville.

Karter Knox transferred to Louisville, DJ Wagner transferred to Maryland, and Malique Ewin is trying for a 5th year at Oregon.

The only returner from the rotation last year is Billy “Goat” Richmond III. Richmond tested the NBA Draft waters and there was some real confusion if he was staying in or coming back to school. Richmond isn’t a scorer, but he’s so athletic and disruptive that he’s hard to keep off the floor. Especially last season with two proven scoring options like Thomas and Acuff, Richmond hovered around the perimeter just looking for lanes to dive in towards the basket for passes or putbacks. Plus, he’s excellent in transition.

Richmond was credited for 380 possessions by Synergy Sports, with over 100 coming in transition. And of his shot attempts, 61.2% of them came at the rim. He only attempted 67 catch and shoots, which is less than 2 per game. That’s not who he is. He wants to attack the rim, and he’s good at it.

In an almost defiant manner, Calipari added eight freshman aged players versus just two out of the transfer portal. Unlike most of the rest of the SEC, Arkansas also has no player seeking a 5th year of college. The Hogs will be young, but they’re going to be explosive again.

Leading the way is top 5 ranked Jordan Smith, Jr. An NBA ready combo guard with a huge wingspan, Smith isn’t the offensive juggernaut that Acuff was. Instead he’s a player who really does defend well, and seems to relish playing defense. But his offense isn’t something you can overlook either, he attacks downhill and has learned to become a facilitator on top of it.

The rest of the recruiting class is a good one with Abdou Toure and JJ Andrews leading the way. Toure is one of the most athletic wings in the freshman class, and saw his recruiting ranking jump up as the rest of his game rounded out. But he’s first and foremost an attacker on the wing. While Andrews is a bit more of a polished product, though still a heavy lean on his dominant left hand. Andrews has developed as a shooter in the last year, and has learned when to pick his spots offensively.

The big addition from the portal was Georgia guard Jeremiah Wilkinson. He’s an electric scorer, putting up over 17 points per game despite not even playing 25 minutes a game. He did that by dominating the ball when he was on the floor, and with consistent shooting.

Calipari has a lot of options, but I think the top of the rotation is likely going to be pretty set. A lot of the Arkansas offense is going to revolve around Jordan Smith. Backup point guard Davion Thompson reclassified from the 2026 class, but was considered a borderline 5-star prospect in that class before dropping a bit as he classed up. He should be able to provide good minutes this season, but this was clearly a longer term bet needing a reliable backup for Smith.

JJ Andrews is going to play a lot because he’s just very very good. No matter where you put him on the floor, he’ll be fine. He and Toure together will have to battle with the more experienced Richmond, but with those three there won’t be many minutes available for anyone else.

What Cal does at post is anyone’s guess. Cooper Bowser was a solid player for Furman last year, and he’s got the size and athleticism that Calipari usually likes around the rim. But he’s not exactly a high upside play, and Cal has always liked upside. Which is why we might see plenty of the enigmatic Miikka Muurinen trying to play the 5. On the offensive end he’d be a nightmare to matchup with, because he can run and prefers to play out by the three point line. But he’s already had questions about his motor, and he’s on the lighter side. So it’s not a given that he’ll give you much interior defense.

There is some hope one of the young big men could help, with Ilia Frolov, a Russian international player who is just 18 years old, being the biggest question mark. But Caleb Ourigou reclassified from the 2027 class to play this season, he’s big and athletic and could be a factor once he catches up. And Paulo Semedo was a redshirt last year, and likely still needs some seasoning.

If there are games we should see a lot less of it’s the semi-home and away neutral games. Arkansas has several of these lined up. The game against Virginia is in Washington DC, in UVa’s backyard. The Michigan State game is in Detroit, which is basically the Spartans backyard. Then the Arizona game is in Phoenix, which is right down the road from Tucson, home of the Wildcats. They also play Oral Roberts in Little Rock.

The only true neutral court game is the one versus Indiana, in the Bad Boy Mower Series, at Madison Square Garden. Nothing says Madison Square Garden and New York City like Bad Boy Mowers, whose tag line is Power-Performance-Attitude. Just what I want from my lawn mower… attitude.

Other than these minor complaints, it’s a very good schedule. There is a lot of Quad 4 games (8), but only two are sub 275. But the high major opponents are very good, three likely protected seed level teams, and North Carolina (part of the ACC-SEC Challenge) on the road. The Tar Heels should be better than their early analytics ranking.

Turn the page to the SEC schedule and the first game looks like a big one for Arkansas. Getting off to a good start against Missouri at home will be important. They should beat South Carolina on the road, but trips to Columbia east can be treacherous. Then Alabama at home, and two straight games on the road against likely tournament teams. They do get Florida at home, but Texas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt on the road. A small condolence is the Nashville trip comes after a mid-week off. Arkansas needs to sweep at home, then probably 4-4 on the road would keep them in the protected seed range.

THE RULING

Once again Calipari has assembled a deep and talented roster. But without acknowledging the lack of a real interior presence, and pretend Cooper Bowser and Miikka Muurinen are the answers on the inside, would be an injustice. The only thing holding this team back in the rankings, and 5th is still really good, is they have no real answer for what many SEC teams will bring on the inside.

The guard play, and the wings, will be as good and as talented as anyone in the league. Jordan Smith, Jr. playing the point will be a little different as he’s been more of a combo coming up in the prep ranks, but the kid is so talented it won’t matter. He’s built like a linebacker and competes like one, but with guard skills. Just how good Smith can be for Arkansas might be in question, but the expectation is this won’t be an Acuff redux. Smith is a different player. He’s a competitor and a team guy, Acuff was wired to score. Smith can score, he’s just not quite wired like Acuff is.

In the back court with him will be a guy who is wired to score in Jeremiah Wilkinson.

Offense will not be an issue for the Hogs. Even with Bowser and Muurinen, the lineups will be able to generate mismatches and generate good looks on offense.

The hope and expectation is for Smith’s competitiveness and willingness to do what it takes to win to push into the rest of the roster. Andrews is right there with him, but with answers at spots 1-4, a lot is just being put on a questionable front court.

Cal will have options to mix and match his guards and wings. If he can find any answers on the inside, the sky is the limit for the Razorbacks.

My Results: Arkansas Razorbacks — 5th in conference, 11-7

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections, and national media outlet predictions.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be, we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.