RoWINg to Purdue - Opponent Preview

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1) take their unblemished Big Ten record on the road to face the Purdue Boilermakers (2-3) for a primetime matchup at 7 p.m. CT in West Lafayette on Saturday, Oct. 10.

Can they score on offense?

One of the most surprising developments of the Boilermakers’ season has been the improvement of quarterback Ryan Browne. The fourth-year signal caller is less erratic and more efficient, completing 70% of his passes (up from 58% a season ago), and has thrown only one interception through five games after throwing 10 last year. Browne is not what you’d call a dual-threat quarterback, but he is athletic and was often quick to leave the pocket a season ago. But this year, he has demonstrated more patience in the pocket. That has translated into more sacks — 10 in five games, after being sacked 15 times all of last season — but Browne’s increased confidence has paid dividends for a passing game that ranks 16th nationally in passing offense.

Purdue bolstered their wide receiver room this offseason with the additions of UCF transfer Asaad Waseem and Iowa State transfer Xavier Townsend. Waseem is Browne’s top target, with 27 receptions for 453 receiving yards and a touchdown. He is a reliable pass catcher who can make difficult catches in traffic. Townsend is a slot receiver who take short passes and turn them into big plays, like his 75-yard touchdown reception against UCLA.

The Boilermakers’ ground game has moved in fits and starts, but as Gopher fans know, running back Fame Ijeboi is a tough runner. He transferred to Purdue to be the bell cow and that has certainly been the case this season, as Ijeboi leads the team with 86 carries for 354 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He may not have the speed to be a home run threat, but he grinds out yards and has yet to fumble the football.

This offense can put up points. Only Notre Dame has been able to hold them below 24 points this season. If Minnesota wants to do the same, they’ll need to get Browne off schedule. Don’t let him get into a rhythm with short and intermediate passes. Play good coverage, tackle well when the Boilermakers try to attack the perimeter, and be disciplined at the linebacker and nickel positions to avoid getting caught out of position on run fakes.

Please tell me the Gophers will be able to score

The Purdue defense ranks 118th nationally in run defense (183.6 rushing yards allowed per game), 111th in pass defense (242.2 passing yards allowed per game), and 129th in scoring defense (35 points allowed per game).

So, things could be better.

In their defense, the Boilermakers have faced three offenses that rank in the Top 40 in total offense and scoring offense — Wake Forest, UCLA, and Notre Dame. But they’ve been especially vulnerable to explosive plays. In their first four games, the Purdue defense allowed 26 plays of 20+ yards, 10 plays of 30+ yards, and eight plays of 40+ yards. Against Illinois, the Boilermakers allowed only two plays of 20+ yards and one play of 30+ yards.

How explosive is the Gophers’ offense? According to Fourth and Short’s Explosiveness metric (which measures big-play capability beyond basic success rate), Minnesota ranks 17th in the Big Ten and 131st nationally. Through five games, they’ve made 19 plays of 20+ yards, nine plays of 30+ yards, and four plays of 40+ yards.

Purdue also ranks 82nd nationally in tackles for loss, averaging five per game. Of their seven sacks on the season, three of them came against FCS Indiana State in the season opener. And the Boilermakers have only forced three turnovers, which is more than only eight other teams in college football, including Illinois and Michigan State.

How were they able to hold the Fighting Illini to 17 points? They did everything they haven’t been doing: Limited explosive plays, made stops in the red zone (with one resulting in a missed 32-yard field goal attempt and other a turnover on downs at their own 17-yard line), and forced a turnover.

I’m sure head coach P.J. Fleck and offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh Jr. will look to get the ground game rolling, but I hope the Gophers push the ball downfield in the passing game and see if Noah Jennings, Javon Tracy, or Jalen Smith can spring a big play against a vulnerable secondary.

But who will score more points on Saturday?

If you’re a Gopher fan, I don’t need to tell you this has all the ingredients for a letdown game. You already know. Minnesota is coming off an emotional win over Michigan and starting to build some momentum after opening Big Ten play 2-0 for the first time since 2019. Purdue can finally breathe and feel a modicum of confidence after last week’s 24-17 road win over a struggling Illinois squad, snapping a 24-game losing streak against Power 4 opponents dating back to 2024. It’s a primetime matchup and the Gophers are 2-2 in their last four trips to West Lafayette, with both wins coming by a margin of seven points. I have a feeling this will be a closer contest than Minnesota fans would like, but the Gophers escape with a victory. Minnesota 30, Purdue 20.