Revisiting Arch Manning's disaster 2023 recruiting class filled with 5-star QB flops

Revisiting Arch Manning's disaster 2023 recruiting class filled with 5-star QB flops originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning's 2026 season has been a disappointment so far. Despite high expectations in his second year as the Longhorns' starter, he has been subpar so far across his first six games.

While there are several theories as to why Manning has struggled, the quarterback is far from the only five-star signal-caller from the class of 2023 recruiting class that has struggled.

The class included fellow five-star quarterbacks including Dante Moore, Nico Iamaleava, Jackson Arnold and others. Let's take a look back at the class to see just how much the signal-callers failed to live up to expectations in college.
MORE: Meet Arch Manning's entire family

2023 High School football recruiting class

The 2023 high school recruiting class may be a thing of the past, but it has produced some big-time college and recent NFL draft picks.

But when it comes to quarterbacks, the class hasn't exactly panned out, especially with the five-star guys.

5-star quarterbacks in 2023

Rankings from the 247Sports Composite were used.

Arch Manning

Manning has had a full season and a half as Texas' full-time starter, but he has yet to play consistently well in Austin so far. He opened the 2025 season with three interceptions thrown in his first three games, including in the Week 1 loss to Ohio State.

He finished the season having thrown for 3,163 yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions, rushing for another 399 yards and 10 touchdowns. But the Longhorns lost three games to OSU, Florida and Georgia that kept them out of the College Football Playoff. Manning had turnovers in all three of those losses.

Manning's best season in 2026 came against Ohio State in Week 2. After struggling for three quarters, he led three touchdown drives in the fourth quarter in a thrilling come-from-behind 24-23 victory. His turnover issues have continued, however. He threw two interceptions during Texas' 27-24 loss to Oklahoma, including a pick-six.

A week later, his strip-sack fumble sealed a Florida upset victory. As a result, Manning's backup KJ Lacey is seeing an up-tick in first-team reps ahead of Texas' game against No. 7 Ole Miss.

"Looking back on Manning, I think we probably overvalued the between the ears stuff a little bit," 247Sports' Director of Scouting, Andrew Ivins, told The Sporting News via email. "I think everyone did. I mean he’s from football royalty. It was easy to assume that his superpower would be his ability to out-think defenses from the pocket – to anticipate and react at a different speed. That hasn’t really materialized.

Is that on Manning? I don’t know. We always talk about the three Ps when it comes to quarterbacks. Protection. Playmakers. Playcallers. Texas has two potential Day 1 picks at offensive tackle. They outbid plenty this offseason for Cam Coleman. But nothing ever looks easy in that offense."

Nico Iamaleava

Iamaleava started at Tennessee as a backup to Joe Milton in 2023, but earned the nod as a starter in 2024. That year, he helped lead Tennessee to its first-ever CFP berth. While the Vols relied on a successful ground game on offense, Iamaleave played well enough. He threw for 2,616 yards with 19 touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing for 358 yards and three scores.

He surprisingly transferred to UCLA in April 2025 after a messy exit from Tennessee stemming from an alleged NIL contract dispute. He was the Bruins' starter in 2025, as UCLA limped to a 3-8 finish and fired head coach Deshaun Foster early in the year. He threw for a season-low 1,928 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions, but had 505 rush yards and three touchdowns.

"Iamaleava led Tennessee to the College Football Playoff and was on track to do the same thing at UCLA before his injury," Ivins added. "Is he a complete product? No. But he entered the season with a second-round grade from Sunday evaluators. I think that would surprise a lot of people."

Although there were rumors that Iamaleava may transfer in the wake of the Foster firing, he remained at UCLA as new head coach Bob Chesney joined the fold. He got the Bruins off to a 5-0 start, but suffered a season-ending torn ACL injury in the first half of the Ducks' 17-15 win over Nebraska, cutting his season short.

He had thrown two interceptions in the first half of that game, as well.

Dante Moore

Moore's recruitment to UCLA was interesting, as he was a longtime commitment to Dan Lanning's staff at Oregon before flipping to the Bruins late.

His true freshman season in Los Angeles was a roller-coaster, as he got the Bruins out to a 4-2 start in mid-October. But he started to see less playing time after throwing six interceptions in three games against Utah, Washington State and Oregon State. He played in just three games the rest of the season for UCLA, and entered the portal in late November, and committed, as expected, to Oregon. He served as the backup to Dillon Gabriel in 2024.

As a starter for the Ducks last season, he had the best season of his career, throwing for 3,565 yards with 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Oregon went 11-1 in the regular season, losing to eventual national champion Indiana. The Ducks defeated James

Madison 51-34 in the first round, and dismantled Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl.

Oregon fell 56-22 to Indiana in the Peach Bowl semifinal, as Moore threw four interceptions in his last three games. As Oregon's starter this season, he led the Ducks to a 3-1 start before leaving the game with a concussion against USC on Sept. 26. He hasn't been cleared to play since.

Jackson Arnold

Arnold has had a journeyman of a career so far. He started his career at Oklahoma, where he was Dillon Gabriel's primary backup in 2023. He earned the starting role at Oklahoma in 2024, and the Sooners started 3-0. But after throwing an interception against Tennessee in Week 4, he was benched in favor of backup Michael Hawkins Jr.

He did not see playing time in the next two games against Auburn and Texas. But Oklahoma went back to Arnold as the starter for the Sooners' final six games of the season. He finished 2-4 across those games, and threw for 1,421 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, taking 34 sacks on the year.

He transferred to Auburn ahead of the 2025 season, where he was once again benched after the Tigers' four-game losing streak from Sept. 20-Oct. 18. He did not see much playing time the rest of the season.

Perhaps the third time is the charm for Arnold, as he has since transferred to UNLV. He's had his best statistical season so far, throwing for 1,386 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions with 408 rush yards and six touchdowns. The Rebels are 4-3 on the season.

Malachi Nelson

Perhaps the quietest of all the former five-star signal-callers is Malachi Nelson. Since being named Caleb Williams backup at USC in 2023, he failed to win the starting job at his next stop at Boise State, and played in just six games at UTEP last season.

He is now at Syracuse, where he earned starts due to injury in games against Virginia and Louisville. The Orange lost both games, and Nelson is now dealing with injuries of his own. Across his four teams, he's thrown for 1,823 yards with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

"It’s not easy scouting quarterbacks," Ivins said of the 5-stars from 2023 that fell off. "It’s also not easy to develop them. Both Manning and Iamaleva were at the top of the board for us because they have legitimate NFL traits – things that few individuals possess. And when everything is clicking for those guys, they are legitimate difference-makers. I think where Manning and Iamaleva have struggled to take the next step is with all the intangible stuff."
MORE: Why did Arch Manning choose Texas?

Best players from 2023 recruiting class

Like any recruiting class, most of the highly rated guys panning out has been a mixed bag. Recruiting rankings are far from an exact science, and it's hard to predict just which guys will pan out or not.

There are several good players to highlight from the class, both at the quarterback position and skill guys.
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Under-the-radar quarterbacks from 2023 that have thrived

Darian Mensah (No. 161 ranked QB)

Among the biggest surprises just might be how under the radar Mensah was. A former three-star recruit, Tulane was his only offer coming out of high school. He led the Green Wave to a 9-4 record during Jon Sumrall's first season in New Orleans, and transferred to Duke, where he led the Blue Devils to a surprise ACC title and 9-5 finish last season.

At Miami, he is a Heisman frontrunner, has the Canes at No. 1 in the land and leads the nation in completion percentage (80.8).

Gio Lopez (No. 63 ranked QB)

Lopez, from Madison, Ala., was a three-star recruit and started his career at South Alabama, also getting offers from UAB, Troy, Charlotte, and Jacksonville State.

He earned the starting job at South Alabama in 2024, and threw for 2,559 yards with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions, adding 465 yards with seven rushing scores.

He then transferred to UNC, but digressed during Bill Belichick's 4-8 first season at Chapel Hill. But he transferred to Wake Forest ahead of this season, and has the Demon Deacons off to a 6-1 start and a second-place spot in the ACC. He's on-pace for a career season in Winston-Salem, with 1,947 yards and 17 touchdowns with an interception, and 253 yards and six rushing scores so far.

"A big reason why those two started off at the Group of Six level is because they had below-the-line traits," Ivins said of both Mensah and Lopez. "They aren’t the biggest quarterbacks with the biggest arms, but they have developed into problem-solvers. Mensah knows what he wants to do with the football and doesn’t seem to flinch in adverse situations. His timing, accuracy and pocket feel are his X-factor. Lopez has some similarities. He also appears to be in a much better situation than he was a year ago at North Carolina."

Avery Johnson (No. 9 ranked QB)

Johnson is perhaps the most consistent quarterback, both in terms of staying at one school and on the field. Across the last three seasons at Kansas State, he's thrown for 6,877 yards with 58 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. He's rushed for another 1,840 yards with 25 touchdowns, as well.

Kenny Minchey (No. 14 ranked QB)

Minchey, a four-star coming out of high school in Hendersonville, Tenn., started his career at Notre Dame. But he failed to see the field behind CJ Carr and Riley Leonard in 2024 and 2025, transferring to Kentucky ahead of the 2026 season.

Along with first-year head coach Will Stein, he's gotten Kentucky off to a surprise 6-1 start, with the Wildcats looking like a potential SEC and CFP contender. He's thrown for 1,552 yards with 13 touchdowns and just one interception so far this season.

Austin Simmons (No. 19 ranked QB)

Simmons was a four-star coming out of Moore Haven High School in Florida. He started his career at Ole Miss, where he served as a backup for Jaxson Dart in 2024, and got hurt early in 2025, paving the way for Chambliss to become the starter.

He has found his stride at Missouri, throwing for 1,773 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions so far this season. The Tigers have gotten out to a 5-2 start to the season.

Other non-quarterback stars from the class

Outside of signal-callers, the class featured several guys that went on to be drafted high in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The class features several rookies in Miami Dolphins offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor,Francis Mauigoa of the New York Giants, Falcons receiver Zachariah Branch, T.J. Parker of the Buffalo Bills, Cowboys safety Caleb Downs and Titans receiver Carnell Tate and his teammate, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr.

Others from the class include starting Ole Miss linebacker Suntarine Perkins, FSU leading receiver receiver Duce Robinson and Kentucky running back CJ Baxter.

"The five-star quarterbacks are certainly in everyone’s crosshairs given how things have played out in recent weeks," Ivins said "But my question is: who from the class should have ranked ahead of the big three (Manning, Iamaleava, Moore) coming out of high school?

It’s easy to play revisionist a few years later, but the 2023 crop of quarterbacks simply has not panned out. In fact, it has produced more first-round picks in the MLB Draft (Roch Cholowsky, Colin Houck) than NFL Draft picks so far – and I’m not sure how many of the 2023s will hear their names called next spring."

While Manning and Moore are in a spot where they could rebound and change their seasons around. But looking back at the 2023 recruiting class is quite interesting as things shake out so far this season.