Ole Miss vs Texas Prediction, Odds, Start Time: NCAAF Week 8 Expert Picks

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The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas, on Saturday, October 24. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Texas is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. Ole Miss, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +130 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.

Here’s my Ole Miss vs. Texas prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24.

• Ole Miss vs. Texas Pick: Over 53.5 or Better · Texas -3

My Texas vs. Ole Miss best bet is on the Over and the Longhorns to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.

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Ole Miss vs Texas Odds, Spread, Lines

• Ole Miss vs Texas Spread: Texas -3.5, Ole Miss +3.5
• Ole Miss vs Texas Over/Under: 53.5 Total Points
• Ole Miss vs Texas Moneyline: Ole Miss ML +130, Texas ML -155

Ole Miss has rolled in back-to-back blowout victories against Vanderbilt and Missouri. The defense allowed a grand total of 20 points, while the offense totaled 83 points. Led by Heisman contender Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels have one of the best offenses nationally, thanks to a top-10 success rate.

Running back Kewan Lacy sparked the outburst upon his return from injury in Week 6 against the Commodores. The junior has been one of the most elusive backs in the nation at 4 yards after first contact. The play from Chambliss has been stable compared to his 2025 numbers, posting the same low turnover-worthy play rate with a higher average target depth.

The defensive numbers continue to show poorly despite the recent domination of two SEC offenses. The Rebels are dominating the line of scrimmage as a top-20 team in stuff rate, but a 126th-ranked coverage grade has allowed opposing offenses to build methodical drives.

Ole Miss checks in at 117th in 3rd-down defense, allowing an average distance of 7.4 yards. Neither quarters nor cover 3 has produced stops for head coach Pete Golding , each allowing an explosive on 1 of 5 opponent attempts.

A full evaluation of the offense is underway following two consecutive losses by the Longhorns. Head coach Steve Sarkisian noted that every aspect of the offense, from his play-calling to Arch Manning‘s execution, was under a microscope.

There will be no changes at the starting position, but sophomore KJ Lacey is in line to take snaps if additional trouble looms. Sarkisian emphasized that the Longhorns’ offense simply lacks better execution and production from the running game.

Texas is 79th in standard downs success rate, anchored by horrible offensive line blocking at 114th in line yards. Havoc allowed has been the biggest issue for Texas, as a 133rd-ranked finish stems from 8 fumbles and 46 tackles for loss allowed. The biggest culprit of fumbles has been Manning himself, posting 5 fumbles lost since Week 3 against UTSA .

The Texas defense allowed methodical drives at the start of the 3rd and 4th quarters, contributing to the losing effort. Florida posted a 15-play touchdown drive to start the second half and a 14-play drive to start the 4th quarter, sealing the victory.

Coordinator Will Muschamp calls one of the best defenses in the nation, but 14 missed tackles and a single sack were unexpected from one of the best havocunits in FBS.

Injury concerns will persist into Week 8, as edge Colin Simmons could miss multiple games due to an ankle sprain . The junior accounts for 23% of the team’s total pressures.

Sarkisian wants the Longhorns to establish a run game, a realistic deliverable against Ole Miss. The Rebels must defend outside zone against Texas, a run concept with which the Rebels produce a modest 48% success rate with minimal negative plays.

Running back Hollywood Smothers has been ineffective because of poor offensive line blocking, but generating a season-high 67 yards against a Tennessee defense that also had mid-FBS success with outside zone.

There is no expectation Ole Miss will generate pressure or sacks on Manning, as the Longhorns’ offensive line ranks 11th in pass protection . The good news for Texas is the explosive coverage against quarters, as Manning has a 58% success rate against the concept. The Rebels’ poor tackle grade of 97th could help the Longhorns get into scoring position.

The biggest factor in the game is the absence of Simmons at edge for the Texas defense, as Chambliss outside the tackles can be a nightmare to defend. Edge Zina Umeozulu and Richard Wesley must pick up the slack in creating havoc, a near-impossible task as Simmons is the second-highest-graded edge in pass rush productivity per PFF.

The Action Network projects Texas as a 6.5-point favorite, signaling an ultimate buy-low, sell-high opportunity exists. Texas’ two-game losing streak, with Ole Miss’ two-game blowout, has settled the number on a field goal.

Ultimately, the loss of Simmons will allow Ole Miss to avoid drive-ending havoc from Texas. Look to buy low on a Texas team full of questions, while the poor Ole Miss defense and the loss of Simmons for the Longhorns should increase scoring opportunities.

Pick: Over 53.5 or Better · Texas -3