Ole Miss vs. Auburn prediction: 5 things we expect in this SEC matchup

The Week 9 college football slate brings us a quality SEC matchup between Ole Miss and Auburn, as both teams look to recover from bad losses and get back on track.

Clearly, the Rebels have more to lose right now. Losing to Florida and most recently Texas has put their College Football Playoff hopes in some genuine peril late in the year.

Auburn already gave rival Georgia a black eye and is eager to give one to another playoff hopeful from the SEC. What actually happens?

1. Ole Miss will attack Auburn’s vulnerable secondary

Still the biggest matchup advantage for the Rebels, who are averaging almost 285 yards per game in the air, ranking top 20 in FBS. Trinidad Chambliss has covered almost 2,000 yards and Deuce Alexander (610 yards, 5 TDs) is his primary target right now.

Auburn has struggled defending quality passing attacks. It ranks just No. 115 among 138 FBS teams in that category, allowing 251 yards per game on average. Ole Miss will test the Tiger coverage early and look for explosive plays downfield.

2. Auburn will rely heavily on Byrum Brown’s legs

Auburn’s best chance to keep pace offensively is using its quarterback as its primary rushing threat from the start. What can Brown do for you? In addition to 1,362 passing yards and 8 scores, he’s run for another 480 and scored six more times on the ground.

That could prove to be an important element for this offense to exploit. Ole Miss has struggled to stop the run this year, ranking last in the SEC by allowing 162 yards per game to opposing backs.

Expect Auburn to incorporate designed quarterback runs early and often for Brown, and to orchestrate consistent movement outside the pocket to challenge the Rebels defensively.

More:One glaring matchup for Auburn to exploit against Ole Miss

3. Ole Miss will have to find production without Kewan Lacy

Not having their star back on the field after injuring his shoulder against Texas complicates matters for the offense. Makhi Frazier steps in to replace that production, but the Rebels will need to be more creative with how they run the ball in this one.

Auburn is a mixed bag going against the run. Overall, it’s third-worst in the SEC in yards allowed, second-worst in TDs surrendered, and 10th in yards per carry.

More: 4 bold predictions for college football’s biggest Week 9 games

4. Red-zone chances will favor one side

One statistical matchup that really stands out is Ole Miss’ ability to finish drives against Auburn’s red-zone defense.

The Rebels are scoring on 96.2 percent of their red-zone possessions, ranking fifth nationally. Auburn has allowed opponents to score on more than 95 percent of their red-zone trips, ranking 128th in FBS.

That’s a very concerning combination for the Tigers. Even if Auburn manages to limit explosive plays between the 20-yard lines, Ole Miss has demonstrated an ability to capitalize once it gets into scoring position.

More: Predicting SEC football scores in Week 9’s biggest games

5. Auburn will struggle to keep up if it falls behind early

Auburn’s biggest offensive concern is its inability to consistently produce through the passing game. The Tigers are averaging just 210.6 passing yards per game, while Byrum Brown has thrown eight touchdowns against seven interceptions.

Last week’s 38-17 loss to LSU exposed some of those limitations, as LSU recorded six sacks and held Auburn to just 1.9 yards per carry on the ground.

Ole Miss has a defense capable of creating pressure, and if the Rebels force Auburn into obvious passing situations, the Tigers will have difficulty keeping pace.

Who wins?

Ole Miss should control this game offensively, particularly with the ball in the air. Auburn has enough athleticism at quarterback to create problems, and the Rebels’ run defense gives the Tigers an opportunity to establish some offensive balance.

Still, the matchup between Ole Miss’ passing attack and Auburn’s struggling pass defense is difficult to ignore.

The loss of Kewan Lacy is significant, but Ole Miss still has enough offensive weapons to exploit Auburn’s defensive weaknesses.

The Big Lead Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Auburn 20

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