Oklahoma updated game-by-game picks from ESPN Matchup Predictor

The Oklahoma Sooners had a chance to build on their win over the Texas Longhorns, but a disappointing final 15:30 of game time let the Kentucky Wildcats leave Owen Field with a win. Once again, mistakes and an inability to score left the defense hung out to dry.

The offense was able to move the ball for nearly three full quarters, but after the interception, the wheels came off, and the Sooners couldn't find any momentum. John Mateer was under pressure the rest of the game and threw two interceptions. It was the third three-interception game of Mateer's career and a fourth with two or more interceptions.

The Oklahoma Sooners are sticking with Mateer as they get ready for their road trip to Mississippi State this Saturday.

Each week, we look at how ESPN's matchup predictor projects each game on the Oklahoma Sooners' schedule. Coming out of the Sooners' loss to Kentucky, the Sooners are out of the College Football Playoff picture. But how do the computers think the rest of the season will go?

Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare over the remainder of the 2026 season.

Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0

Record: 1-0

Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: L, 17-10

Record: 1-1

Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: W, 14-6

Record: 2-1

Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs

Predicted Winner: Georgia

Result: L, 41-13

Projected running record: 2-2, 0-1 SEC

Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)

Predicted Winner: Texas

Result: W, 27-24

Record: 3-2, 1-1 SEC

Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: L, 21-13

Record: 3-3, 1-2 SEC

Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 55.8% (Up from 51.8%)

Projected running record: 4-3

Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 63.8% (Down from 67.3%)

Projected running record: 5-3

Nov. 7 at Florida Gators

Predicted Winner: Florida

Sooners Win Probability: 38.7% (Up from 49.3%)

Projected running record: 5-4

Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Predicted Winner: Ole Miss

Sooners Win Probability: 40.6% (Down from 55.5%)

Projected running record: 5-5

Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 56.2% (Down from 60.9%)

Projected running record: 6-5

Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers

Predicted Winner: Missouri

Sooners Win Probability: 46.5% (Up from 43.3%)

Projected running record: 6-6

Scratching out Bowl Eligibility

The Oklahoma Sooners' loss to Kentucky puts them in a position where they have to go at least 3-3 over the final six games to make bowl eligibility, and that's where the computers have the Sooners at this point. But even that won't be easy. Mississippi State is a threat even without Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell because Okahoma's offense can't score. South Carolina, Florida, Ole Miss, and Missouri are all playing good football. Texas A&M may be a disappointment this season, but there's still a lot of talent on that roster, which has something to say about the outcome when the Aggies make the trip to Norman.

The Oklahoma Sooners face a losing season if they can't get things together and make things right.

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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Oklahoma updated game-by-game picks from ESPN Matchup Predictor