Ohio State vs Indiana Prediction: Biggest Home Game In Hoosier History

We’re all over the whole It’s Still Strange That Indiana Is Good At College Football thing, right? Not yet.
The Hoosiers are 6-0. While that’s hardly surprising with this team, it’s just the 28th time in 128 years of IU football that it has won six games or more. Ohio State has played football for 115 years, and when it wins another game, it’ll make it 90 seasons with six or more wins.
Also, for all the games played in Bloomington against teams ranked in the top five, this is the first time in Indiana history that two top-five teams have faced each other in Memorial Stadium.
There will be plenty of showdowns and big things happening over the second half of the season, but this is it. This is the Big Ten Game of the Year, and now we get to see if Indiana can keep the party going, or if Ohio State reestablish itself as the conference’s top dog.

Ohio State vs Indiana: Quick Hits

• Ohio State gets a week off before going to USC, and then four of the last five games are at home.
• This starts a run of three home games in four dates for Indiana, with a trip to Michigan next before hosting Minnesota and USC.
• Indiana won the last meeting over the Buckeyes in the 2025 Big Ten Championship. Ohio State had won the previous 30 games and is 61-3-2 in the series since 1951.

How To Watch Ohio State vs Indiana

Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
– CFN Week 7 Schedule, Predictions
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Why Ohio State Will Win

This isn’t the Indiana team of last year, especially offensively.
The Hoosiers are smart, don’t make mistakes, and the coaching is still peerless, but Josh Hoover – as good as he is – isn’t Fernando Mendoza. He’s not as accurate, the running game isn’t as strong, and because of it, the team isn’t moving the ball quite as well.
It’s still a fantastic attack with plenty of explosion, but this year’s team is 40th in the nation on third downs, connecting at a 45% clip. Last year’s team was automatic – it was No. 1 in the country, hitting a whopping 56.5% of its third-down tries.
The other key difference? Takeaways. Last year’s Hoosier defense forced ten turnovers over the first six games. This year’s version has come up with just four, with just one in the three Big Ten games.

Why Indiana Will Win

This isn’t the Ohio State team of last year, especially defensively.
And throw in the running game, too. Who wants to run the ball when you have Jeremiah Smith to throw to? But this has now become a problem in big games. Last year, Ohio State failed to run for 90 yards three times – the losses to Indiana and Miami, and the close-call 14-7 win over Texas. Indiana’s run defense is allowing just 2.3 yards per carry.
But it’s the other side that’s the real issue – relatively speaking for Ohio State. This defense is fantastic. It’s just not the next-level killer of past seasons.
The Buckeyes are struggling to come up with third-down stops. There’s little to no pass rush, and despite being fourth in the nation in total defense, so far it has allowed more than 16 points three times. How many times did it allow that many points last year? Once – Miami 24, Ohio State 14.
How about in 2024? Three times. Twice to an Oregon team that went 13-1, and in the national championship against Notre Dame.

Ohio State vs Indiana Prediction, Betting Lines

Enough about what these teams aren’t. They’re both national championship-level good, but there’s a Prove It factor here.
Indiana was able to keep its cool and come through late in the win over Nebraska, and not flinch when Northwestern was making a charge in the second half. Ohio State had one fourth quarter against Texas when it buckled, but when it was on against Iowa, the big, bad Buckeyes flexed hard with a nearly perfect performance.
Curt Cignetti will work magic with a game plan that will keep this close. It’ll seem like Ohio State is dominating, but a missed field goal here, an empty trip there, and it’ll be hard to put the game away.
And then Josh Hoover will pick the wrong time to throw his first interception of the season.

Ohio State 26, Indiana 20
Latest Consensus Line: Ohio State -3.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 3
Must See Rating (out of 5): 5

Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.